When it comes to betting on 2022 Hawkeyes, hand “over” your money

Sports betting is now freely discussed wherever sports is commerce, but no one ever reminds you of the No. 1 rule:

There are no sure things.

It’s all gambling. A football is pointy, and takes crazy bounces. Sometimes your guys are the ones who suffer more mangled ACLs and MCLs than the other guys. Sometimes the other team simply plays magnificently over a given three hours. Or unusually lousy.

That said, get thee to a sportsbook before 11 a.m., Saturday, and place a few shekels on Iowa to go over 7.5 regular-season wins this season. That’s the over/under line it opened with months ago, and it hasn’t changed.

Spare us all the weeping, wailing, and gnashing of teeth about the Hawkeyes’ receiving depth, or the lack of confidence you have in their quarterback play, or not being certain if their offensive line will be a help rather than a hindrance.

If Iowa doesn’t do better than 7-5, something has gone terribly haywire. Three reasons:

1. You can’t have two preseason first-team AP All-America players like Iowa has in linebacker Jack Campbell and cornerback Riley Moss and go 7-5.

That would defy all logic. In fact, it’s sheer madness.

Ohio State is the only other Big Ten team with multiple first-teamers, and no other club in that conference has one who isn’t a kicker. Find us the last time Iowa had two preseason first-team All-Americans on defense. We’ll wait.

Campbell, by the way, could be a national name by November.

2. You can’t discard what Iowa has done the last four seasons.

The Hawkeyes had at least eight regular-season wins in each of their last three full seasons, and went 6-2 in the shortened 2020 affair. Their regular-season mark over those four years is 33-11.

The second rule of betting after “There are no sure things,” is this: You ride a hot hand.

3. Iowa still resides in the Big Ten West.

That means six division games against teams from a division that has never been jacked up. None of the West’s teams have ever reached the College Football Playoff. None but Iowa were in last season’s final AP Top 25.

Yeah, you get annual fistfights in the West. Yeah, Wisconsin is Wisconsin. We all know Northwestern and Purdue can throw stiff uppercuts at the Hawkeyes, and have landed several over the years.

But c’mon, man. USC isn’t looking at the West and questioning if it can win division titles once it starts Big Ten play.

Look at Iowa’s schedule. Do you see it being a likely underdog in any game other than the one at Ohio State?

Michigan in Iowa City won’t be Michigan in Indianapolis. The Hawkeyes get Wisconsin at home, too.

That’s not to say the slate isn’t fraught with danger, as usual. There’s Iowa State at Kinnick Stadium, visits to Purdue, Minnesota and improving Illinois. Northwestern at home. Even Nebraska.

Why, South Dakota State may cause panic attacks in the Kinnick stands Saturday. That’s a serious football program, better than many of the FBS nonconference teams Iowa has trotted through here over the years for a home gate and automatic ‘W.’

Still, the Hawkeyes have to win at least eight times this season or it’s a forgettable year.

The program isn’t swimming upstream. Other than an open checkbook to buy five-star recruits, the best way to sustain college football success is coaching stability. If the Hawkeyes were any more secure, they’d be Fort Knox.

They aren’t lagging when it comes to facilities or resources, and have a staff of coaches and staffers who know to use them. That doesn’t suggest division titles should be the norm, but does mean the Hawkeyes should build upon their 2021 West crown.

With a defense chock full o’ talent and a rocket-launching punter with a deft touch, you’ve got a winning season right there. Great defense is winning. Punting is not winning. Punting like Tory Taylor punts is winning.

If Iowa finds just find a wee bit of offensive juice, it goes 8-4 and then some. When Jennifer Garner asks what’s in your wallet, the answer will be a self-made Christmas bonus from taking Iowa and the “over.”

This isn’t complicated. It’s also not guaranteed.

Comments: (319) 398-8440; mike.hlas@thegazette.com