Iowa football early opponent preview: Iowa State

Cyclones start year with lower expectations after losing slew of starters

Jul. 8, 2022 6:00 am, Updated: Jul. 8, 2022 7:26 am

Iowa State defensive end Will McDonald IV (9) tackles Iowa quarterback Spencer Petras (7) at Jack Trice Stadium in Ames on Saturday, Sept. 11, 2021. McDonald will be a key part of the Cyclones’ defense in 2022. (Rebecca F. Miller/The Gazette)

Editor’s note: This is second in a 12-part series previewing Iowa football’s 2022 opponents.

When Iowa State visits Kinnick Stadium on Sept. 10, it will have a different look than in past Cy-Hawk battles.

A different starting quarterback — Hunter Dekkers. A different starting running back — most likely Jirehl Brock. Most of the team’s starters from 2021 on both sides of the ball left either via graduation, the NFL Draft or the transfer portal.

Consequently, Iowa State is approaching the 2022 season with lower outside expectations than in recent years under head coach Matt Campbell.

Media picked Iowa State to finish sixth in the Big 12 this year — a step down from second in 2021 and fourth in 2020. The preseason ratings from ESPN’s Football Power Index gave the Cyclones a 4.9 percent chance of winning the conference — the fifth-highest rate in the 10-team league.

Even with the lower expectations around the Cyclones, the 2022 Cy-Hawk game could have another relatively close outcome.

While Iowa has won the last six Cy-Hawk games, the last four wins have come by 10 points or fewer.

The Hawkeyes are an early six-point favorite with DraftKings and the Action Network. Iowa has a 52 percent chance of winning, according to ESPN’s FPI.

Iowa vs. Iowa State: 3 things to watch for

Xavier Hutchinson vs. Iowa’s secondary. With tight ends Charlie Kolar and Chase Allen gone, Hutchinson will be a vital part of Iowa State’s aerial attack. He’ll have a tall task, though, against Big Ten Defensive Back of the Year Riley Moss and an Iowa secondary that grabbed 25 interceptions in 2021.
How well does Iowa’s offensive line contain Will McDonald IV? It’s hard to overstate McDonald’s role on the Cyclones’ defense. He led the team with 11.5 sacks, 14 tackles for loss and six quarterback hurries. Meanwhile, it’s no secret that Iowa’s offensive line remains relatively young.
Does Dekkers live up to the hype? He came to Ames as a four-star recruit and the 13th-best dual-threat quarterback in 247Sports’ composite rankings. His first Power Five test will be the Cy-Hawk game.

2022 prognosis

Iowa’s last loss to its in-state rival was a few months before Spencer Petras’ 15th birthday, and this 2022 Iowa State group is far from the likeliest to break that streak.

Someone might have said that about the 2017 Cyclones, though, and they took the Hawkeyes into overtime. Iowa should be clear favorites to hold onto the Cy-Hawk trophy in 2022, but it’s not a win to be taken for granted.