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Sen. Joni Ernst expected to announce next month that she won't run for re-election in 2026
Ernst was first elected to the U.S. Senate in 2014
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DES MOINES — U.S. Sen. Joni Ernst, an Iraq War combat veteran and Iowa’s first woman elected to Congress, is expected to announce next month she will not seek re-election, leaving another vacancy in an Iowa seat that could have ripple effects down the ballot as Democrats look to the state for pickup opportunities.
As Senate Republicans work to maintain their majority in the chamber, Ernst is joining a wave of her peers making headaches for the party. Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina turned down a re-election bid after clashing with President Donald Trump.
Ernst plans to announce in September that she will opt out of the race for a third term, according to four people familiar with her plans who spoke Friday on the condition of anonymity to preview the announcement.
Ernst’s office and campaign did not immediately respond to messages Friday from The Gazette seeking comment.
A former Army National Guard member and a retired lieutenant colonel, Ernst was first elected to an open Senate seat in 2014. She served for several years in the No. 4 spot in the Senate GOP leadership and was considered a vice presidential contender for Trump’s first White House run.
Her decision comes after Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds, the state’s first female governor, said she would not run for re-election. It prompted the state’s many Republican elected officials to consider the open opportunity to run for higher office, a process that may begin again with Ernst’s departure.
Democrats look to mount an Iowa comeback
Democrats have been looking for an opportunity to mount a political comeback in the once-competitive state, an uphill battle even in the potentially favorable midterm year. Ernst drew backlash after a retort about Medicaid cuts at a town hall. As Ernst explained that the legislation protects Medicaid for those who need it most, someone in the crowd yelled that people will die without coverage, and Ernst responded: “People are not ... well, we all are going to die.”
The crowded primary field of Democratic candidates for the Senate have capitalized on that moment and Ernst’s Senate votes for early messaging. They’ll have to pivot once other Republicans enter the fray.
The election will be without an incumbent for the first time since 2014, when Ernst was elected in the first open Senate race in decades following longtime Democratic Sen. Tom Harkin’s decision to not seek re-election. Chuck Grassley, Iowa’s senior U.S. senator, has held his seat for 45 years.
Ernst emerged among a field of lesser-known candidates seeking the Republican nomination in 2014, rising to national recognition with advertisements that spoke of her experience slinging guns and castrating hogs. She won re-election in 2020 by more than six percentage points, coming in with just shy of 52 percent of voters.
Among Trump supporters, Ernst made waves earlier this year after signaling a hesitance to support his pick for the secretary of the Department of Defense, Pete Hegseth. Hegseth has said in the past that he did not think women should serve in combat roles, and he was accused of a sexual assault that he denies.
But Ernst, who is herself a survivor of sexual assault and has worked to improve how the military handles claims of misconduct, made clear she wanted to hear him respond to those points. It provoked a pressure campaign that underscored Trump’s power on Capitol Hill and included threats of a bruising primary.
It wasn’t the first time Ernst went toe-to-toe with Trump supporters. She also faced condemnation for her 2022 vote to protect same-sex marriage.
Still, Ernst would have benefited from nearly 200,000 more active voters registered as Republicans than Democrats, a significant shift from even a few years ago. Ernst announced a campaign manager in June, an October date for her annual fundraiser and had raised just shy of $1.8 million in the first half of the year.
Likely candidates for the seat
Third-term Rep. Ashley Hinson from the Cedar Rapids area in Eastern Iowa, is widely viewed as likely to enter the race. Two of Iowa’s four congressional seats already have been among the more competitive in the country over the past several elections.
Hinson’s office and campaign did not immediately respond to a message Friday from The Gazette seeking comment. Messages left with Reynolds’ office and Republican Party of Iowa Chairman Jeff Kaufmann also were not immediately returned Friday.
NBC News on Friday reported U.S. Ambassador to NATO and former Iowa Hawkeye football player Matt Whitaker also would consider running for the seat if Ernst declines to seek re-election, citing a source familiar with Whitaker’s thinking.
Whitaker, who served as acting U.S. Attorney General during Trump’s first term, was defeated by Ernst for the GOP nomination in the 2014 U.S. Senate primary in Iowa.
Several Democrats are seeking the party’s nomination for the seat, including state Sen. Zach Wahls; state Rep. Josh Turek; Jackie Norris, chair of the Des Moines School Board; and Nathan Sage, a former chamber of commerce president.
Two Republicans — former state Sen. Jim Carlin and veteran Joshua Smith — had already entered the primary to challenge Ernst.
Republican state Sen. Carrie Koelker, of Dyersville, dismissed rumors that she may run for Iowa’s 2nd Congressional District seat currently held by Hinson, should Hinson run for the U.S. Senate seat.
“I am humbled and honored that people have thrown my name out there (to run for Hinson's congressional seat, should Hinson run for the Senate seat),” Koelker told The Gazette. “I think I can do more for Iowa in Iowa. ... My professional and personal life is top of mind here, and that’s focusing on Iowa.”
As for reports that Ernst will not seek re-election, Koelker said: “Public service is a unique calling, and that’s up to the individual to decide ... when it is time to step aside, and I respect that either way, and I think we need to look at the legacy of what has been done.”
“It’s her story to tell and her announcement to make,” Koelker said of Ernst. “Ashley Hinson is a fearless leader ... and I think she’s got a solid backing and a solid voice and has a strong record. She has the will, she’s got the knowledge and she has the strength, and she has the experience. I can’t think of a better person to step into those shoes, should Joni Ernst make that decision. She would be my ideal choice, should that seat open.”
Trending Republican
Iowa, which had been a perennial swing state, has trended Republican over more than a decade, with Republicans winning the governorship since 2010 and both U.S. Senate seats since 2014.
After Democrat Barack Obama carried the state in 2008 and 2012, Trump has gone on to carry it three consecutive times, and by his widest margin, 13.2 percentage points, last year.
Ernst’s plans were first reported by CBS News.
Tom Barton of The Gazette contributed to this story.
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