Iowa high school football 2024: A Gazette-area primer for Week 9 with playoff scenarios and previews

The method in which they get there is different.

It’s all RPI for the biggest schools, a hybrid of district standings and RPI at the next two levels, and a first round of elimination for the smaller schools.

However they arrive, everybody will be at the same level at the end of Friday night: 16 teams remaining in all seven classes.

Here’s a Week 9 primer:

Class 5A

According to our calculations, 12 teams have clinched playoff berths.

The rundown:

Bettendorf (8-0, .6823 RPI) — Will clinch the No. 1 seed with a win at Iowa City High. A loss would drop the Bulldogs no lower than No. 3.

Iowa City Liberty (7-1, .6711) — Appears to have wrapped up a top-four seed, which means the Lightning would host the first two rounds. They’ll finish No. 2 with a win at Cedar Rapids Jefferson and will climb to No. 1 if they get some help from City High.

West Des Moines Dowling (7-1, .6412) — Heavily favored to win at Sioux City North. Embedded at No. 3 with a win, unless someone above trips.

Johnston (6-2, .6242) — Win or lose against Sioux City East, the Dragons should finish in the top eight, with means a first-round home date.

Linn-Mar (7-1, .6223) and Pleasant Valley (6-2, .6167) — The Lions and the Spartans are 5 and 6 in RPI heading into their game at Pleasant Valley. The winner is guaranteed no lower than a 5-seed; the worst-case scenario for the loser is 11.

West Des Moines Valley (6-2, .6019) — The Tigers showed last year that a sub-.500 team could make a deep run, advancing to the semifinals and finishing 6-6. They’ll have a more advantageous seed this fall, no lower than No. 6 if they do the expected and handle Marshalltown.

Sioux City East (6-2, .6026) — Faces a tough closing test at Johnston. Black Raiders clinch a top-eight seed with a win, slip into the 12-13 range with a defeat.

Iowa City High (5-3, .5816) — Will climb into the top eight if it can hand Bettendorf its first loss of the season.

Ankeny Centennial (6-2, .5689) — Finishes with a home date with Urbandale, and is favored to earn its seventh win. Jaguars also have designs on a top-eight seed if Sioux City East and City High both lose.

Iowa City West (5-3, .5681) and Ankeny (4-4, .5635) — Will have virtually identical RPIs if both win. West faces a toss-up game at Cedar Rapids Prairie; Ankeny is at Cedar Rapids Washington in a Thursday-night battle.

That’s 12 playoff teams. Where will the other four come from?

One will be Ottumwa (7-1, .5619) or Waterloo West (5-3, .5563). The Bulldogs and the Wahawks square off at Ottumwa. The winner is surely in. The loser is likely out.

Next in line are Southeast Polk (4-4, .5432), Waukee (5-3, .5222), Cedar Falls (4-4, .5177) and Council Bluffs Abraham Lincoln (5-3, .5170) at 15 through 18.

Southeast Polk and Cedar Falls are extremely heavy favorites, and both appear to be safe if they do the expected. Waukee welcomes CBAL, and that should amount to a win-and-in scenario for the victor.

Dubuque Hempstead (5-3, .5068), Davenport North (5-3, .5056) and Cedar Rapids Prairie (3-5, .5002) are mathematically alive, but are long shots.

If Prairie (currently at 21 in RPI) knocks off Iowa City West, the Hawks are likely to leapfrog Hempstead and North, as well as the CBAL-Waukee loser. There is probably a path to the top 16, but it likely includes a nearly impossible scenario that includes losses by Southeast Polk, Cedar Falls or both.

Class 4A

The top two teams in each of six districts are automatic qualifiers. The other four teams advance from the RPI-driven at-large pool.

District 2

Decorah (8-0, 4-0) has clinched the title, and Waverly-Shell Rock (5-3, 3-1) is the runner-up with a win at Marion. If Western Dubuque (5-3, 2-2) beats Mason City at Epworth, the Bobcats are projected to have the highest RPI of any at-large candidates in 4A.

District 3

North Scott (6-2, 3-1), Cedar Rapids Xavier (5-3, 3-1) and Clear Creek Amana (5-3, 3-1) are locked in a three-way tie, with North Scott in front in the 17-point tiebreaker. All three are heavily favored Friday, and all qualify with a victory, whether automatically or at-large.

Class 3A

The top two teams in each of six districts are automatic qualifiers. The other four teams advance via RPI.

District 3

Dubuque Wahlert (8-0, 4-0) is the champion. Independence (6-2, 3-1) can clinch the other auto-bid with a win at home against Center Point-Urbana (4-4, 2-2). CPU can steal that bid with an upset plus a West Delaware loss to Central DeWitt. West Delaware (4-4, 2-2) is in must-win mode; the Hawks probably will need some assistance elsewhere statewide, even with a win.

District 4

Mount Vernon (7-1, 4-0) is the champion, and Davenport Assumption (3-5, 3-1) has wrapped up the other automatic slot. Washington (5-3, 2-2) is down a ways in the RPI pecking order and unlikely to gain an at-large bid.

District 5

There’s a pretty good chance that this district gets four bids. Williamsburg (7-1, 4-0) and Benton Community (6-2, 4-0) are automatic qualifiers. The winner of their game Friday at Van Horne is the champion.

Solon (6-2, 2-2) probably will be the top at-large team in 3A if it wins at South Tama. Grinnell (5-3, 1-3) has a legitimate shot at qualification if it takes care of Fairfield on the road.

Class 2A

AREA FIRST-ROUND GAME OF THE WEEK

Waukon (3-5) at No. 9 Anamosa (7-1)

Anamosa claimed a district title last week in emphatic fashion, holding Northeast to minus-8 second-half yards in a 41-0 romp. Waukon, meanwhile, nailed down its eighth consecutive playoff berth with a Week 8 victory over New Hampton. That eight-year run includes state championships in 2017 and 2020. Anamosa closed the regular season with three lopsided wins after a Week 5 clunker against West Liberty. Vince Diers has passed for 18 touchdowns, and Austin Scranton has rushed for 1,195 yards.

OTHER AREA FIRST-ROUND GAMES

Jesup (4-4) at Osage (5-3)

Monticello (2-6) at No. 6 North Fayette Valley (7-1)

Union Community (3-5) at No. 10 Mid-Prairie (5-3)

West Liberty (3-5) at West Marshall (5-3)

Class 1A

AREA FIRST-ROUND GAME OF THE WEEK

Alburnett (5-3) at MFL MarMac (6-2)

Prior to 2019, MFL MarMac had made only one playoff berth in school history. Now the Bulldogs are in the field for the sixth straight year, and that glorious span has netted a 53-12 record. They are prolific on the ground again this season, averaging 297 rushing yards per game, led by Quinn McGeough’s 1,064 yards. Alburnett sophomore Laken Caves more than matches that with 1,082 yards (and 14 touchdowns), and also has a team-high 318 receiving yards. QB Brody Kaestner also is a sophomore, as is leading tackler Cooper Franklin.

OTHER AREA FIRST-ROUND GAMES

No. 8 Iowa City Regina (7-1) at Pleasantville (6-2)

Sumner-Fredericksburg (5-3) at No. 10 Dyersville Beckman (6-2)

West Branch (2-6) at No. 4 Sigourney-Keota (7-1)

Class A

AREA FIRST-ROUND GAME OF THE WEEK

Starmont (5-3) at No. 4 Lisbon (8-0)

Dominant on both sides of the ball, Lisbon is a playoff qualifier for the fifth consecutive year. Led by speedster Tiernan Boots (his 1,360 rushing yards and 24 rushing TDs both rank fourth in Class A), Lisbon is averaging 44.0 points per game and allowing just 4.2. Pekin is the only team to stay within four touchdowns of the Lions. Starmont started 5-1 before dropping back-to-back games to Bellevue and Maquoketa Valley, surrendering 82 points in those two contests after giving up just 40 in its first six.

OTHER AREA FIRST-ROUND GAMES

Columbus Community (4-4) at No. 7 Maquoketa Valley (7-1)

North Linn (6-2) at No. 9 Pekin (7-1)

North Tama (4-4) at No. 10 Madrid (6-2)

South Winneshiek (4-4) at No. 3 Saint Ansgar (7-1)

8-Player

AREA FIRST-ROUND GAME OF THE WEEK

WACO (7-1) at Central City (6-3)

This is a rematch of a Week Zero game won by WACO, 51-36, at Wayland. Central City started 1-3, but is humming now in a five-game winning streak, averaging 63.6 points per game in that surge. Matthew Klostermann ranks No. 2 statewide in 8-Player in rushing yards (1,846), averaging 9.8 yards per carry and reaching the end zone 32 times. WACO also has won five in a row and has surpassed 60 points in each of its last two games. QB Clayton Miller has passed for 22 TDs and is second for the Warriors in tackles (53).

AREA OTHER FIRST-ROUND GAMES

No. 7 Bedford (7-1) at Belle Plaine (7-1)

BGM (4-4) at No. 8 Edgewood-Colesburg (8-0)

Lansing Kee (5-3) at No. 6 Gladbrook-Reinbeck (7-1)

Southeast Warren (6-2) at Iowa Valley (7-1)

Springville (6-3) at No. 3 Don Bosco (8-0)

Winfield-Mount Union (5-3) at Montezuma (8-1)

Comments: jeff.linder@thegazette.com