Crunching the numbers on the Class 5A Iowa high school football RPIs and playoff race

Two weeks remain, and so do dozens of scenarios.

Such is life in trying to project the Class 5A playoff field.

Sixteen teams will qualify, and about 20 teams have a plausible path to playing Oct. 27. And yes, that absolutely includes a West Des Moines Valley squad that currently sits at 2-5.

Here is a rundown on all of them:

No. 1 Southeast Polk (7-0, .7324 RPI) and No. 2 West Des Moines Dowling (7-0, .7282) — This is easy. The winner of Friday’s showdown at Pleasant Hill will be the No. 1 overall seed. The loser will be No. 2, with the assumption that it doesn’t stub its toe in Week 9 (and it sure shouldn’t).

No. 3 Bettendorf (6-1, .6609) — The Bulldogs close at Cedar Rapids Prairie and at home against Iowa City High. Win both, and they are assured a top-four seed (probably 3) and the possibility of two home games.

No. 4 Pleasant Valley (6-1, .6481) — Same scenario at Bettendorf. The Spartans host Iowa City West on Friday and go to Linn-Mar next week. A sweep assures home/home in the first two rounds as the 4 seed, and PV could climb to 3 with a Bettendorf loss.

No. 5 Cedar Rapids Kennedy (5-2, .6219) — Cougars face a challenging trip to the UNI-Dome this week to play Cedar Falls, then host Davenport North in Week 9. Win both, and they’ll stay at 5 with the potential to climb if Bettendorf and/or Pleasant Valley stumble. Even with a loss, the Cougars appear to be a lock to stay in the top eight and host in the first round.

No. 6 Ankeny (5-2, .6149) — The Hawks go to West Des Moines Valley on Friday to play a team fighting for its playoff life, then host Cedar Rapids Washington next week. With two wins, they could reach the top four if two of the three teams above them (Bettendorf, PV and Kennedy) lose once. A loss to Valley could leave them teetering the 8-9 line which determines first-round home field.

No. 7 Waukee Northwest (5-2, .5913) — The Wolves’ key game is Friday at Ankeny Centennial, then they go to Ames next week. It’s possible, but unlikely, that they could climb into the top four with two wins, but it would take two losses by Bettendorf and/or PV and one loss by Kennedy and Ankeny. They probably need to win twice to stay in the top eight.

No. 8 Waukee (5-2, .5705) — Compared to most of their CIML brethren, the Warriors have played a relatively soft schedule. That continues with the stretch run with road games against Des Moines Roosevelt and Council Bluffs Abraham Lincoln. Even with two wins, Waukee could get jumped by Cedar Rapids Prairie and/or Ankeny Centennial if either of those two teams win out.

No. 9 Cedar Rapids Prairie (4-3, .5692) — The leader of the 4-3 pack. The Hawks host Bettendorf on Friday, then go to Iowa City West in Week 9. Win twice, and Prairie has a lot of room yet to climb if dominoes above them fall the right way. They would pass any current 5-2 team that suffers a loss, with the possible exception of Kennedy, and they would probably pass Waukee even if the Warriors run the table. A split probably leaves Prairie in the 9-10 vicinity, and it would probably (barely) make the playoffs with two losses.

No. 10 Ankeny Centennial (4-3, .5666) — The Jaguars’ pivotal game is Friday against Waukee Northwest, then they travel to Urbandale in Week 9. Two wins would send Centennial into the top eight. As is the case with Prairie, a split probably leaves them about where the Jaguars currently sit. Two losses could be problematic for the postseason bid.

No. 11 Cedar Falls (4-3, .5423) — With Cedar Rapids Kennedy at home and Davenport West on the road, the Tigers’ most likely closing result is a split, which probably would keep them in the 11-12 range. Two wins would probably get Cedar Falls as high as 9.

No. 12 Linn-Mar (4-3, .5386) and No. 13 Iowa City High (4-3, .5369) — The Lions and the Little Hawks collide Friday at Bates Field, and the winner is assured a playoff bid. Friday’s loser will be on thin ice if it goes on to lose in Week 9 (Linn-Mar hosts Pleasant Valley; City is at Bettendorf).

No. 14 Iowa City West (4-3, .5342) — The Trojans need one win in their last two games — at Pleasant Valley this week, home against Cedar Rapids Prairie — to assure themselves a chair at the dance.

No. 15 Sioux City East (4-3, .5304), No. 16 Urbandale (4-3, .5231) and No. 17 Johnston (3-4, .5152) — Let’s lump these three together because Johnston hosts Urbandale on Friday and goes to East next week. Despite the sub-.500 record, most consider the Dragons a significant favorite in both games. All three are in the same boat; one win probably gets any of them into the playoffs, two wins would trigger a sizable jump up the ladder, and two losses would knock any of them out. East is at Ames on Friday; Urbandale hosts Ankeny Centennial in Week 9.

No. 18 Dubuque Hempstead (4-3, .4912) and No. 19 Davenport West (4-3, .4883) — The Mustangs and the Falcons square off Friday in Dubuque, and both face the same scenario. The loser of this game is out of playoff consideration. The winner needs to follow with a Week 9 victory to make it; Hempstead is at Davenport Central, West hosts Cedar Falls.

No. 20 West Des Moines Valley (2-5, .4705) — Not only do the Tigers have a mathematical change to qualify; they still have their postseason fate in their own hands. If they beat Ankeny this week (possible) and win at Marshalltown in Week 9 (a virtual slam dunk), they’re almost assuredly going to get in at 4-5.

Approximate final RPIs

These are adjusting only the front factor (winning percentage), without touching the back two factors (opponent’s W-L and opponents’ opponents W-L):

Southeast Polk: .7324 at 9-0, .6907 at 8-1, .6491 at 7-2

Dowling: .7282 at 9-0, .6865 at 8-1, .6449 at 7-2

Bettendorf: .6728 at 8-1, .6312 at 7-2, .5895 at 6-3

Pleasant Valley: .6600 at 8-1, .6184 at 7-2, .5767 at 6-3

Kennedy: .6457 at 7-2, .6040 at 6-3, .5624 at 5-4

Ankeny: .6387 at 7-2, .5970 at 6-3, .5554 at 5-4

Northwest: .6151 at 7-2, .5734 at 6-3, .5318 at 5-4

Waukee: .5943 at 7-2, .5526 at 6-3, .5110 at 5-4

Prairie: .6049 at 6-3, .5686 at 5-4, .5216 at 4-5

Centennial: .6023 at 6-3, .5660 at 5-4, .5190 at 4-5

Cedar Falls: .5790 at 6-3, .5417 at 5-4, .4947 at 4-5

Linn-Mar: .5743 at 6-3, .5380 at 5-4, .4910 at 4-5

City High: .5726 at 6-3, .5363 at 5-4, .4893 at 4-5

Iowa City West: .5699 at 6-3, .5336 at 5-4, .4866 at 4-5

Sioux City East: .5661 at 6-3, .5298 at 5-4, .4828 at 4-5

Urbandale: .5588 at 6-3, .5225 at 5-4, .4755 at 4-5

Johnston: .5628 at 5-4, .5158 at 4-5, .4795 at 3-6

Hempstead: .5269 at 6-3, .4906 at 5-4, .4436 at 4-5

Davenport West: .5240 at 6-3, .4877 at 5-4, .4407 at 4-5

Valley: .5300 at 4-5, .4884 at 3-6, .4467 at 2-7

Projected pairings

Using BC Moore rankings as the tool in determining future projected winners, this is what the first round of the 5A playoffs might look like:

No. 16 Linn-Mar (4-5) at No. 1 Southeast Polk (9-0)

No. 9 Waukee (7-2) at No. 8 Waukee Northwest (6-3)

* * *

No. 13 Iowa City High (5-4) at No. 4 Pleasant Valley (8-1)

No. 12 Johnston (5-4) at No. 5 Cedar Rapids Kennedy (7-2)

* * *

No. 14 Sioux City East (5-4) at No. 2 West Des Moines Dowling (8-1)

No. 10 Cedar Rapids Prairie (5-4) at No. 7 Ankeny Centennial (6-3)

* * *

No. 15 Dubuque Hempstead (6-3) at No. 3 Bettendorf (8-1)

No. 11 Cedar Falls (5-4) at No. 6 Ankeny (7-2)

* * *

Note: This would include procedural jumps of Northwest over Waukee (head-to-head) and Cedar Falls over Johnston (head-to-head). Also includes a site switch with Sioux City East and Dubuque Hempstead for geography’s purposes.

Comments: jeff.linder@thegazette.com