Upstart Western Dubuque has another upset, and this would be huge one, on its mind

Tom Lilly found himself sitting next to Amy Ostwinkle at an all-conference meeting recently.

“It’s a little ironic,” Lilly said. “She said, ‘Maybe we’ll see you (in the regional finals).’”

He could have laughed it off, given Western Dubuque’s record, but he didn’t.

And here we are.

The reigning Class 4A state champion, sixth-ranked Cedar Rapids Xavier (15-7) hosts Western Dubuque (5-18) in a Class 4A girls’ basketball regional final.

Tipoff is 7 p.m. Tuesday, and yes, the scoreboard is running again at Ron Thillen Gymnasium after a glitch Saturday forced a site change.

Xavier was scheduled to host Marion, but the scoreboard wouldn’t turn on, and the game was moved to Marion. The Saints won, 54-47.

“They spent all (of Sunday) working on it, and it was up and running (Monday morning),” Lilly said. “It takes a special tower to run it, and they’ll have a backup ready (Tuesday).”

The Saints have won four straight games after a four-game skid, and Lilly said they are “mentally in a good place” right now.

They can’t afford to look past Western Dubuque. The Bobcats have taken down Maquoketa and No. 9 DeWitt Central in succession. In the latter, they built a shocking 21-point halftime lead and coasted home.

It’s not as if the Bobcats had been a punching bag all season. Ten of their losses were by 10 points or less, including a 60-54 setback against Xavier on Dec. 6.

“The (Mississippi Valley Conference) is tough, and we’ve always competed,” Ostwinkle said. “The Maquoketa game was a catalyst for our confidence, and we came out so strong against DeWitt.”

The Western Dubuque-Xavier game is one of six regional finals — three in 4A, three in 5A — involving area teams.

Also in 4A, No. 5 Decorah (20-2) hosts No. 13 Mason City (14-6), and No. 7 Clear Creek Amana (17-4) welcomes No. 10 North Scott (13-9).

Three area 5A teams face stiff road challenges in Central Iowa: No. 10 Iowa City Liberty (14-7) is at No. 7 Southeast Polk (14-7), No. 11 Linn-Mar (15-7) visits No. 6 Ankeny Centennial (16-6) and No. 12 Iowa City West (16-6) plays at No. 4 West Des Moines Dowling (18-4).

Linn-Mar has proven itself dangerous, when it’s at its best. The Lions have some impressive wins, including one against No. 3 Waterloo West.

“I feel that we’re battle tested, and now it’s a matter of being able to execute,” Lions Coach Chad Tompkins said.

Tuesday’s Class 5A Regional Finals

(All games 7 p.m.)

No. 12 IOWA CITY WEST (16-6) at No. 4 WEST DES MOINES DOWLING (18-4)

West has been to seven state tournaments since 2011, winning two championships, but this would be the first under Coach Nate Frese, who succeeded now-AD B.J. Mayer. The Trojans face an uphill climb against Dowling, which is piloted by sophomore Ava Zediker (19.8 points, 3.4 assists per game). The Maroons have won 15 straight games after a 3-4 start, including a 62-48 win over then-No. 1 Johnston on Jan. 20. West got past Des Moines Roosevelt, 72-57, in the regional semifinals, jumping to a 24-point halftime lead and coasting home behind 22 points apiece from Meena Tate and Anna Prouty. A Dartmouth College signee, Tate averages 14.8 points per contest.

BC Moore computer projection: Dowling by 27.

No. 11 LINN-MAR (15-7) at No. 6 ANKENY CENTENNIAL (16-6)

When the Lions are at their best, they’re a difficult puzzle to solve. Linn-Mar is the only team to defeat No. 3 Waterloo West this season, and owns two victories over Iowa City West, one over Cedar Rapids Xavier. But to pull this upset, the Lions must be significantly better than they were in the regional semifinals, where they edged Bettendorf, 45-43. Senior Zoe Kennedy paces the Lions at 14.4 points and 5.7 rebounds per game while classmate Taylor Brunson adds 12.5 ppg. Centennial pursues its fifth state-tournament appearance in the last eight years. Scott DeJong is 13th all-time among Iowa coaches with 683 career wins. Balance (four players between 8.6 and 10.7 ppg) and defense (38.4 ppg allowed) are the Jaguars’ buzzwords.

BC Moore computer projection: Centennial by 20.

No. 10 IOWA CITY LIBERTY (14-7) at No. 7 SOUTHEAST POLK (14-7)

It already has been a breakthrough season for Liberty, which earned a share of its first Mississippi Valley Conference divisional championship. Now, the Lightning chase their first state-tournament appearance. Like MVC compatriots West and Linn-Mar, the Bolts hit the road to face an established CIML program. Southeast Polk is in pursuit of its 10th state berth in a 13-year span. One of six CIML teams still playing, the Rams are led by seniors Brooklin Dailey (14.5 ppg) and Stella Charleston (13.2 ppg). Dailey is the daughter of Rams Coach Tracy Dailey. Liberty has made a dramatic ascent through the past two seasons, and Jasmine Barney (15.8 points, 6.3 rebounds per game) has been a major factor.

BC Moore computer projection: Southeast Polk by 19.

STATE

Dubuque Senior (12-10) at No. 1 Pleasant Valley (22-0)

No. 15 Sioux City East (17-4) at No. 2 Johnston (21-1)

Waukee (11-11) at No. 3 Waterloo West (21-1)

No. 13 Ankeny (12-10) at No. 5 Davenport North (20-2)

No. 9 West Des Moines Valley (14-8) at No. 8 Cedar Falls (15-6)

Tuesday’s Class 4A Regional Finals

(All games 7 p.m.)

No. 13 MASON CITY (14-6) at No. 5 DECORAH (20-2)

Decorah’s backcourt whiz kids (senior Bryar Duwe and junior Yazmeen Whitsitt) will try to engineer the school’s first state-tournament appearance since 2007. Whitsitt leads the team in scoring (20.1 ppg) and shoots 41.7 percent from long distance, while Duwe averages 17.8 points and 3.5 assists per contest. The Vikings swept the Northeast Iowa Conference, and already own a 60-50 regular-season win over Mason City. They closed their regional semifinal with a 22-8 fourth-quarter push and pulled away from West Delaware, 71-47. Iowa Alliance Conference North Division champion Mason City, meanwhile, got a quality win over Waverly-Shell Rock, 54-41, behind five 3-pointers and 17 points from junior Kelsey McDonough.

BC Moore computer projection: Decorah by 10.

WESTERN DUBUQUE (5-18) at No. 6 CEDAR RAPIDS XAVIER (15-7)

If there’s a Cinderella in the tournament series, it is wearing red and black sneakers and resides in Epworth. Western Dubuque followed a minor surprise (61-55 over Maquoketa) with a more significant one (64-52 over No. 9 DeWitt Central). Now, the Bobcats tackle the reigning 4A state champion, and if they can complete an upset trifecta, they’ll be a quite unlikely state-tournament qualifier. Xavier has answered a four-game skid with four consecutive victories, including a 54-47 regional-semifinal win over Marion in which the game was moved because of a scoreboard glitch. Senior Kyla Mason and sophomore Libby Fandel both average more than 16 points per game for the Saints. Western Dubuque’s key nucleus consists of three juniors and three sophomores.

BC Moore computer projection: Xavier by 17.

No. 10 NORTH SCOTT (13-9) at No. 7 CLEAR CREEK AMANA (17-4)

These programs have become familiar postseason combatants lately: North Scott ended Clear Creek Amana’s first state-tournament appearance in the quarterfinals in 2020, then the Clippers prevailed in last year’s regional semifinals. Neither team showed much vulnerability Saturday: CCA whipped Fort Madison, 62-28, for its fifth straight win; Ava Locklear and Bliss Beck combined for 26 points and 22 rebounds. North Scott, meanwhile, blistered Keokuk, 63-34, behind Lauren Golinghorst’s 25 points. Golinghorst is third in the Mississippi Athletic Conference in scoring, at 16.5 ppg. CCA counters with the double-digit trio of juniors Locklear (13.6 ppg, 10.2 rpg) and Beck (11.1 ppg) and freshman Averie Lower (11.2 ppg).

BC Moore computer projection: CCA by 9.

STATE

Humboldt (14-7) at No. 1 Dallas Center-Grimes (19-3)

Bondurant-Farrar (13-9) at No. 2 North Polk (20-2)

No. 15 Spencer (16-6) at No. 3 Sioux City Heelan (21-2)

Carlisle (15-7) at No. 4 Ballard (17-3)

Glenwood (15-8) at No. 8 Pella (17-5)

Comments: jeff.linder@thegazette.com