Ernst’s decision against re-election bid overhauls shape of Iowa’s 2026 elections

DES MOINES — Iowa voters’ ballots are going to look a lot different next fall with Joni Ernst’s announcement this week that she will not seek re-election to the U.S. Senate.

And it’s not just the state’s U.S. Senate election that will feature new names. The impact of Ernst’s decision will ripple all the way down the ballot.

Ernst’s retirement from the Senate creates just the fourth U.S. Senate election in Iowa without an incumbent in nearly six decades and the first since 2014 — when Ernst first won election to the U.S. Senate.

Toss in Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds’ decision to also not seek re-election this year — Reynolds made that announcement in April — and Iowa will have open-seat elections for both the U.S. Senate and governor on the same ballot for the first time since 1968.

Iowa also is guaranteed at least two new Congressional representatives next year, with two of the incumbents — Republican Reps. Ashley Hinson and Randy Feenstra — running for other offices.

All told, next year’s elections in Iowa now promise to produce a new governor, U.S. Senator, and at least two new U.S. House members.

“We’re about to have a huge reshuffling, aren’t we,” said Rachel Paine Caufield, chair of Drake University’s Department of Political Science. “We’re going to see some pretty dramatic reshuffling.”

To get a full sense of the impact of Ernst’s decision, The Gazette and Lee Des Moines Bureaus spoke to Iowa political scientists and campaign veterans.

Political climate

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Beyond even Ernst’s political ground-moving announcement, some historical headwinds could be a factor in Iowa’s 2026 elections, experts said. Typically, the party in power at the federal level — Republicans, in the case of next year’s elections — struggle in the first midterm election after taking power.

“It’s going to be a bad year for Republicans. I think they’re reading that writing on the wall,” Paine Caufield said.

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Jimmy Centers — a former aide to Republican Gov. Terry Branstad, a veteran of gubernatorial, legislative, congressional and presidential campaigns, and the co-creator of a Des Moines consulting firm — agreed that 2026 will be “a challenging environment” for Republican candidates.

“I do think, generally speaking, that Republicans in Iowa fare pretty well going into 2026. But I think everyone is eyes wide-open of the history of the party in power in a midterm election,” Centers said.

How Iowa voters are feeling going into next year’s elections remains an open question, experts said. Timothy Hagle, a political science professor at the University of Iowa, said Iowa’s no-party voters will once again hold significant sway in the general election outcome — especially in those open-seat races.

“The reporters that I talk to that are out of state, I’ll often tell them that, ‘Well, you folks characterize Iowa as a red state. But I think we’re still purple.’ Definitely on the red side of purple, but we’re still purple because of all those no-party voters that decide statewide elections, and they are the ones that tend to like the incumbents,” Hagle said. “So when you’ve got an open race, that makes things more open.”

The interest in the elections, particularly those two open-seat campaigns at the top of the ballot, could drive up voter interest and thus voter turnout, said Jeff Link, founder of his own consulting firm and a veteran of Iowa Congressional and presidential campaigns.

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“This will be a race that will drive turnout because it’s an open seat, plus with the open gubernatorial race I think you’ll have a lot of people trying to learn about the candidates, the nominees for both seats and both parties,” Link said. “And that will drive interest and ultimately turnout.”

Multiple experts said the state’s political party organizations will play a critical factor in next fall’s elections. The grassroots campaign apparatuses of the Republican Party of Iowa and Iowa Democratic Party will help determine what that voter turnout ultimately looks like, experts said.

“It’s a remarkable opportunity to have two open statewide races happening at once, particularly in a small state. I think we’re going to see incredible investment, tons of money, lots of engagement,” Paine Caufield said. “And this is one of those circumstances where I think the state party organizations really matter. We’re going to see how both state party organizations respond to this.”

Centers said he agrees, and that he believes that spells trouble for Iowa Democrats. Centers said the national Democratic Party has not supported Iowa Democrats financially in recent years, including by their decision to revoke Iowa Democrats’ first-in-the-nation caucus status.

“I absolutely agree with that, and if I’m a Democrat, quite frankly I’d be far more concerned than where I sit just because of the lack of resources, it seems to me from where I sit — and I acknowledge I don’t have a full view into IDP’s workings — but what the DNC has done in terms of pulling so many resources out of the state of Iowa and was that shortsighted?” Center said. “I personally believe it was shortsighted for a variety of reasons, but if we’re sitting here next Thanksgiving and these races were decided by a couple of points here or there, I think there’s a lot of folks that are going to be wondering what might have been had the DNC not completely abandoned Iowa.”

Iowa Democrats also likely will have to overcome a voter registration disadvantage in the state. As of the beginning of September, there were 696,625 active, registered Republican voters in Iowa compared to just 503,038 active, registered Democrats, according to data from the Iowa Secretary of State’s Office. There were 563,507 active, registered no-party voters in the state.

Link conceded that Iowa Republicans have done well organizing around voter registration and that Democrats will have to make significant strides between now and the November 2026 general election.

“One of the things that I hope happens is that the Democrats take this new injection of attention and money and really dedicate it early on to trying to make a dent in the voter registration advantage that the Republicans have built up over the last decade,” Link said. “I think the issues are that the Republicans have made an effort organizationally and they’ve put resources into their organizing efforts to try and increase voter registration and the Democrats have not been able to match that. And I think if (Democrats) put some resources and committed people to the project, they could absolutely make a difference.”

U.S. Senate campaign reset

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In Iowa’s new-look U.S. Senate election, Republicans no longer will carry the benefits of the incumbency, which historically in Iowa has proved valuable. Republican U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley has been reelected seven times and Democratic U.S. Sen. Tom Harkin was reelected four times before retiring in 2014.

At the state level, Iowa is responsible for the longest-serving governor (Terry Branstad), state attorney general (Tom Miller) and state treasurer (Mike Fitzgerald) in U.S. history.

“It’s always an advantage to be an incumbent,” Centers said. “It comes with the benefits of statewide name identification, the bully pulpit of the office, and in many cases a significant fundraising advantage and a robust Rolodex of relationships.”

And some Iowa experts argued the case that Eastern Iowa Congresswoman Ashley Hinson, who has announced her campaign for the open U.S. Senate seat, could make a stronger candidate even than Ernst because she will not carry some of the same political baggage that Ernst did, referring to Ernst’s comments at a May town hall.

At that town hall event, while Ernst was responding to questions about Republicans’ plans to reduce future Medicaid spending, an audience member yelled that people will die. Ernst flippantly responded, “Well, we all are going to die.”

Link said Ernst would have been starting her re-election campaign from a position of weakness, where Hinson gets a fresh start.

“Hinson gets ... a chance to introduce herself,” Link said.

Jim Carlin, a Republican former state legislator from Sioux City, was already running for the U.S. Senate, challenging the incumbent Ernst before her announcement. And national reports have indicated Matt Whitaker, a former U.S. Attorney and acting U.S. Attorney General, is contemplating a Senate campaign.

Karen Kedrowski, a political science professor and director of the Carrie Chapman Catt Center at Iowa State University, said Ernst would have been on the defensive and would have faced an uphill battle, but also would have been a strong fundraiser.

“It would have been harder for Sen. Ernst to run and win,” Kedrowski said. “But it would still have been an uphill climb for any challengers to take her on. … She would have had to raise a lot of money, she would have had to spend a lot of money, and her reputation would have been sullied. So instead she can retire on something of a high note.”

Five Democrats are running in the U.S. Senate election: state legislators Zach Wahls of Coralville and Josh Turek of Council Bluffs, former state lawmaker Bob Krause, Des Moines school board leader Jackie Norris, and veteran and former chamber of commerce leader Nathan Sage of Indianola.

Iowa’s primary election is June 2, 2026, and the general election is Nov. 3, 2026.

Comments: (515) 355-1300, erin.murphy@thegazette.com

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