With Ernst out, Iowa’s Ashley Hinson announces U.S. Senate run in reshaped race

CEDAR RAPIDS — Iowa Republican U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson wasted little time announcing her candidacy for U.S. Senate Tuesday, mere hours after Sen. Joni Ernst published a video announcing she will not seek re-election.

Hinson had been planning to run for re-election in Eastern Iowa’s 2nd Congressional District, but had long been seen as a likely candidate for the Senate if either of Iowa’s seats came open.

Ernst, a Republican from Red Oak and the first female combat veteran elected to the Senate, said in a video that she is stepping aside to devote more time to her family “after a tremendous amount of prayer and reflection” — creating a domino effect in Iowa Republican politics.

Within four hours, Hinson formally announced her campaign for the U.S. Senate in 2026, vowing to be President Donald Trump’s “strongest ally” in the chamber.

“I’ve stood shoulder to shoulder with President Trump to reverse the woke craziness and put working families first,” Hinson said in a statement. “In the Senate, I’ll be President Trump’s strongest ally and deliver the America First agenda.”

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Hinson was first elected to northeast Iowa’s U.S. House seat in 2020, ousting then-Democratic incumbent Abby Finkenauer. She won re-election in 2022 and 2024 and is serving in her third term.

The Republican from Marion said her priorities reflect those of her constituents: stricter border security, bans on transgender girls in female sports, support for farmers, and strengthening Medicaid, Medicare and Social Security for seniors.

“The America First agenda is working for Iowans. I’m running for Senate because there’s more work to do, and I am prepared to win and deliver,” Hinson said in her announcement.

The former TV news anchor and state legislator pointed to her record in Congress, where she serves on the House Appropriations Committee and the Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party. She highlighted efforts to cut taxes, secure family tax credits, fight inflation, expand biofuels and block regulations she says burden Iowa agriculture.

Hinson also pledged to resist what she called “woke gender ideology” and touted efforts to advance legislation to support expectant mothers, expand access to midwifes and help families afford child care.

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On foreign policy and national security, Hinson called for strengthening the military and taking a harder line on China through measures to secure supply chains and penalize trade violations. She also noted her work on bipartisan bills to expand mental health care access for veterans and improve benefits for service members.

In her announcement, Hinson praised Ernst, calling her a model of service.

“Service defines Senator Joni Ernst — from serving her country in uniform to fiercely fighting for Iowans in the U.S. Senate,” Hinson said in a statement. “Her story — from Red Oak to the Senate, is a powerful example of the American dream. Our country and state are better off because of Joni’s selfless service — I lead a heartfelt thank you from every Iowan.”

Hinson not alone in campaign for Ernst’s seat

Iowa’s open Senate seat now stands as a high-stakes battleground ahead of the 2026 midterms, signaling both opportunity and volatility in a state with deep GOP roots.

Ernst had been viewed as a favorite to win re-election in 2026. Prior to her announcement, Iowa’s U.S. Senate election was classified as “likely Republican” by prominent national forecasters Sabato’s Crystal Ball, the Cook Political Report and Inside Elections.

But Democrats had expressed confidence in their ability to win the seat back, even before Ernst’s announcement. They have been especially critical of Ernst’s now-infamous “We all are going to die” comment at a town hall event earlier this year.

The comment came when Ernst was answering a question about Republican proposals to reduce future federal spending on Medicaid, the government health program for disabled and low-income Americans. When an attendee shouted in warning that people will die due to the cuts, Ernst responded, “Well, we all are going to die.”

Ernst’s retirement opens a competitive GOP primary in a state that has trended strongly Republican in recent years. Already, one Republican — former state Sen. Jim Carlin — has declared a campaign for the seat.

NBC News on Friday reported U.S. Ambassador to NATO and former Iowa Hawkeye football player Matt Whitaker also would consider running for the seat if Ernst declines to seek re-election, citing a source familiar with Whitaker’s thinking.

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Whitaker was among the four candidates who Ernst defeated in the 2014 Iowa Republican U.S. Senate primary election.

On the Democratic side, state legislators Zach Wahls of Coralville and Josh Turek of Council Bluffs, Des Moines school board leader Jackie Norris, former Knoxville chamber of commerce leader Nathan Sage of Indianola, and former state lawmaker and Veterans National Recovery Center president Bob Krause of Burlington are campaigning for the Iowa U.S. Senate seat.

Within 90 minutes of Hinson's Senate campaign announcement, her team announced endorsements from Republican U.S. Sens. Jim Banks of Indiana, Katie Britt of Alabama, and Markwayne Mullin of Oklahoma, U.S. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise of Louisiana, U.S. House Majority Whip Tom Emmer of Minnesota and U.S. Rep. Elise Stefanik of New York. Hinson's campaign also was immediately endorsed by newly minted Iowa House Majority Leader Bobby Kaufmann of Wilton.

Hinson, viewed as a fast-rising figure in Iowa and national politics, has also demonstrated her strength as a fundraiser. In the latest quarter, she reported collecting $854,000 — outpacing the $723,000 raised by Ernst over the same span. Hinson ended the period with roughly $2.8 million in the bank, funds she could shift into a Senate campaign account.

Who’s running to replace Hinson?

Hinson’s announcement also sets the stage for a competitive race to succeed her.

No Republicans have formally entered the race; however, state Rep. Shannon Lundgren, a Republican small business owner from Peosta, said she is considering running for Hinson’s U.S. House seat in 2026.

In a social media post, Lundgren praised Hinson as a strong conservative voice and said the district must continue to be represented by an “America First” Republican. She noted her support for President Trump and said she and her family are weighing next steps before making a formal decision.

Iowa’s 22-county 2nd Congressional District includes Cedar Rapids, Waterloo, Dubuque, Decorah, Grinnell and Mason City.

Party officials expressed confidence the Eastern Iowa district will remain in GOP hands.

“This is simple: Iowa voters trust Republicans to deliver real, common sense results and have no interest in the Democrats’ radical agenda,” National Republican Congressional Committee spokesperson Emily Tuttle said, predicting the seat “will stay red.”

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Former U.S. Attorney Kevin Techau suspended his campaign in June after struggling to raise money.

Republicans have a voter registration advantage of around 23,000 voters over Democrats in the district. President Trump won the district by 10 percentage points, increasing his margin from 2020.

National Democrats, however, have already targeted the district as competitive. Several Democratic candidates are in the field. They are state Rep. Lindsay James, a Presbyterian chaplain and Democrat from Dubuque; Clint Twedt-Ball, a longtime Cedar Rapids nonprofit leader; Kathy Dolter, a U.S. Army veteran and former dean of nursing at Kirkwood Community College in Cedar Rapids; and former Pine Lake State Park manager Don Primus, of Steamboat Rock.

“I decided to run for Congress not to oppose any candidate but to be a fierce advocate for Iowans,” James said in a statement. “... Too many Iowans face impossible choices when it comes to building the lives they want and deserve, and I am dedicated to listening to them and being their voice in Washington, D.C.”

Twedt-Ball criticized Hinson for putting “political ambitions over the needs of Iowans” and pledged a “fresh, positive start.”

“Now is the time to rebuild our state and fight for good jobs, affordable housing, quality healthcare and great public schools for all Iowans,” he said in a statement

He and his brother founded Matthew 25, a nonprofit which has played a pivotal role in disaster recovery efforts in Cedar Rapids, including after the 2008 floods and the 2020 derecho. Matthew 25 has also led neighborhood revitalization, affordable housing and after-school programs across northeast Iowa.

In a statement, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesperson Katie Smith said Hinson is “fleeing her voters” after prioritizing billionaires and special interests over working families. Party officials framed her departure as evidence of Republican vulnerability, pointing to rising costs, threats to health care and an agenda “out of step” with Iowans.

“Hinson knows what we know: there’s change coming in Iowa, Democrats will compete aggressively to flip this seat, and we will win because Iowans are ready to elect someone who actually puts them first,” Smith said.

Democrats also noted a string of recent successes in state legislative races, including last week’s special election in western Iowa, where the party overperformed by 22 points in a Trump-leaning district.

Iowa’s primary election is June 2 and the 2026 general election is next Nov. 3.

Comments: (319) 398-8499; tom.barton@thegazette.com