Experts predict ‘above normal’ precipitation for Iowa this winter

Iowans should get their shovels ready and prepare to bundle up this winter as experts are predicting that parts of the state will see a wetter winter season than normal.

In its three-month outlook report issued last week, the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center indicates that central and Eastern Iowa will likely see above average precipitation from December through February, leaning between 33 and 50 percent above normal.

Justin Schultz, lead meteorologist with the National Weather Service’s Quad Cities office, said that average amount of precipitation — both snow and rain — during the winter varies depending on the region of the state, but on average Iowa sees about 30 inches of snow along Interstate 80 each winter.

Schultz said these three-month outlook reports give a broad overview of what weather is predicted to come to the region, so it can be difficult to determine when the first snowfall and exactly how much precipitation Iowa could receive.

The report comes just a few weeks after meteorologists issued La Nina advisory.

Timothy Gunkel, another meteorologist with the NWS’ Quad Cities office, said La Ninas occur when strong winds push warm water toward Asia, and cold water is brought to the surface of the Pacific Ocean. These cold waters in the Pacific push the jet stream northward, which often leads to drought in the southern U.S. and heavy rains and flooding in the Pacific Northwest and Canada.

In contrast, the El Nino climate pattern occurs when Pacific water is warm, pushing the jet stream south. El Nino often results in dry weather in the northern U.S. and Canada, and increased flooding in the U.S. Gulf Coast and Southeast.

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The report also indicates northern Iowa likely will see “below normal” temperatures.

The other regions of the state — south central Iowa through the southeast portion of the state — are predicted to have “equal chances” of below or above normal temperatures.

Equal chances “doesn't necessarily mean that it's going to be a near normal winter in terms of temperatures,” Schultz said. “It's (means) there's not really a strong signal either way. So, basically, there's equal chances of a below and above or a near normal temperature for the for the season.”

According to NWS data, Schultz said that December’s average temperatures range between a high of 37 degrees and a low of 21 degrees.

In January, he said the high is usually around 32 degrees and the low is on average 15 degrees.

And for February, Schultz said the high is typically 37 degrees with a low of 19 degrees.

Gunkel said temperatures for the rest of October should be “pretty typical” for this time of year, ending the month with high daily temperatures in the 50s.

“As we go into November, here in Eastern Iowa, we (will be) hovering around that 50-degree mark, essentially,” he said. “Then as we go on through November, we're looking at the 40s. At that point, we drop off pretty quickly in November with our normal temperatures.”

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The National Weather Service’s report is similar to last year’s report, which predicted a colder and wetter winter.

Schultz said last winter was in a La Nina pattern as well, but since the weather patterns are so variable, he said it can be difficult to compare this upcoming winter with winters in the past.

It “can be really difficult to know exactly what to expect, because we've had La Ninas where we've had a bunch of snow versus those that really there wasn't a whole lot,” Shultz said. “So, it kind of kind of runs the whole gamut when it comes to snow and cold.”

Olivia Cohen covers energy and environment for The Gazette and is a corps member with Report for America, a national service program that places journalists in local newsrooms to report on under-covered issues. She is also a contributing writer for the Ag and Water Desk, an independent journalism collaborative focusing on the Mississippi River Basin.

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Comments: olivia.cohen@thegazette.com