Drought intensifying in Midwest, impacting ag and shipping

Drought conditions have rapidly deteriorated across the Midwest over the past few weeks — and it’s uncertain how much rain will come the rest of this summer, experts said Thursday during a webinar hosted by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and several climate partners.

May and June are historically the rainiest months for Midwestern states, said Molly Woloszyn, the regional drought information coordinator for NOAA's National Integrated Drought Information System.

Most areas in the region departed from that, though, with much of Eastern Iowa receiving 4 inches less of precipitation than normal.

Hotter than normal daytime temperatures are also intensifying dryness in the Midwest. The midday heat encourages water to evaporate from soils, contributing to low moisture levels across Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, Kansas and eastern Nebraska.

As a result, conditions have deteriorated rapidly across the north-central U.S. since May. The worst of the drought has shifted east from the Great Plains to the Midwest.

About 64 percent of the Midwest is now in moderate to extreme drought. Nearly 90 percent of Iowa is in some sort of drought, according to Thursday’s U.S. Drought Monitor report.

Agricultural conditions have declined throughout the region, said Dennis Todey, director of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Midwest Climate Hub.

Pasture and range conditions have deteriorated rapidly, causing some Midwest ranchers to sell off cattle. Only 24 percent of Iowa’s pastures and ranges are in good or excellent condition.

As corn crops enter their reproductive stage, called tasseling, in the coming weeks, drought conditions could impact their yield. Time will tell how soybeans fare as they enter their critical growing stages by August. Specialty crops across the region have suffered reduced or no yields.

Drought impacts are spilling into other industries, too.

Flow within the Mississippi River is shrinking.

In St. Louis, the river’s water levels recently rivaled those in record drought years. Tow capacity for barges has slipped 10 percent to 20 percent to avoid running aground in the shallower waters, said Anna Wolverton, an Army Corps of Engineers meteorologist.

More and more, transport in the Midwest is relying on train and semis — less efficient methods that could cause supply chain issues.

Some Midwestern urban areas have enacted watering restrictions to curb overuse amid shortages.

Hope for improvement — but uncertainty remains

Precipitation blessed some of southern Iowa and northern Missouri this past week, thanks to severe weather blowing through the region. It helped — but didn’t solve — drought conditions, crop stress, Mississippi River water levels and soil moisture levels in the affected areas.

“We're not out of the woods. We're going to need more rainfall, and we don't want higher temperatures,” Todey said.

In the next week, precipitation should pass through Kansas into Missouri and Arkansas. Iowa may not receive much in the same time frame — but, in the following week, there are low probabilities of above-normal and near-normal precipitation throughout the Midwest.

Precipitation levels throughout the Midwest shouldn’t stray too far from normal into September, said Doug Kluck, the central region climate services director for NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information.

With luck, drought conditions should improve or disappear from Iowa.

El Nino, though, is throwing more uncertainties into future weather projections. The phenomenon arises when weak winds push warmer waters toward the West Coast, which moves the Pacific jet stream south. As a result, the northern U.S. is dryer and warmer than usual, and the U.S. Gulf Coast and Southeast are wetter than usual.

Up until now, temperatures in the Midwest have remained largely on par with seasonal averages. Because of El Nino, the central U.S. may see milder temperatures this summer. The phenomenon could also throw more rain toward Iowa, Missouri and into Indiana and Michigan, Kluck said.

Only time will tell how El Nino will influence weather, though, with its impact likely to affect the climate moving into late summer, fall and winter.

“(Experts) do believe that El Nino will happen, and it looks like it will happen with a vengeance in terms of being moderate to strong,” Kluck said. “It may be the key to everything.”

Brittney J. Miller is the Energy & Environment Reporter for The Gazette and a corps member with Report for America, a national service program that places journalists in local newsrooms to report on under-covered issues.

Comments: (319) 398-8370; brittney.miller@thegazette.com