Hatch campaign find good news in poll showing Branstad leading gubernatorial race

CEDAR RAPIDS - Another day, another poll.

On the face of it, a Hickman Analytics Inc., poll released Wednesday appears to be good news for Republicans.

The Maryland-based firm found the open-seat race for the U.S. Senate is close - just a 2 to 4 percentage point spread between Democratic U.S. Rep. Bruce Braley and GOP hopefuls Mark Jacobs and State Sen. Joni Ernst, respectively.

It also found Republican Gov. Terry Branstad leading Democratic challenger Sen. Jack Hatch by 10 percentage points.

That's 'bad news for liberal Des Moines politician Jack Hatch,” according to Branstad campaign spokesman Tommy Schultz. Not only does the poll show the challenger continuing to trail, Schultz said, but 'his plan for Iowa includes raising taxes, growing the size of government and taking us back in time to Chet Culver's failed administration.”

Digging deeper into the poll of 500 Iowans self-identified as 'likely 2014 voters,” Hatch spokesman John Hedgecoth said the numbers show 'the governor is in trouble. That's trouble with a capital T for Terry.”

The poll showed a 10 percentage point margin between those who said they would 'likely” vote for Branstad and those who would 'likely” vote for Hatch. That narrowed to 47 to 43 percent when voters were asked if they were 'definite.”

That reinforces the Hatch campaign narrative that the race that Branstad was leading 55 to 27 percent nearly a year ago is now within the margin of error.

That's because as Iowans get to know Hatch, they see him as a 'solid, alternative leader,” Hedgecoth said. Hatch's numbers are 'gradually coming up from only 31, 32 only a few weeks ago to 40 now.”

While some of the change in poll numbers 'starts to get into the idiosyncrasies of the specific poll,” Hedgecoth said, 'What is clear is that this is a close race and there is some range of numbers in the low single digits that represent where this race stands.”

Or not, according to Chris Larimer, associate professor of political science at University of Northern Iowa, who has been looking at the gubernatorial polls over time.

It may be getting too far down in the weeds for anyone but campaign staff and students of polling, but Larimer said the differences in results may be rooted in the algorithms polling firms use to define potential respondents.

Even in random samples, Larimer said, 'how the universe of potential participants is defined is absolutely critical to understanding the results.”

Looking at results of the Des Moines Register and the Quinnipiac University polls, 'there is evidence of a narrowing and declining support for Branstad, but not nearly to the extent” claimed by the Hatch campaign, he said.

Public Policy Polling, which showed Branstad up 43 to 38 percent, said it draws from 'Iowa voters” and the Daily Caller poll, which showed the governor leading 45 to 43 percent, drew from 'active Iowa voters.”

If a 'voter” and 'active voter” are defined as Iowans who voted in 2012 when Barack Obama carried Iowa 52-46 percent over Mitt Romney on his way to winning re-election, Larimer explained, the pool of potential respondents is going to be slightly more moderate or left-leaning compared to a universe in which 'voter” or 'active voter” is defined as someone who participated in 2010 when Branstad defeated a Democratic incumbent to win a fifth term.

The poll was conducted April 24-30. Hickman said it was not commissioned by either Branstad or Hatch.

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