Stepped-up weather warnings

The Gazette Editorial Board

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For only the second time in U.S. history, the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center last week issued a high-risk warning more than 24 hours in advance: Conditions were ripe for violent tornadoes to explode across the nation's midsection.

That bulletin came a month after the NWS announced it would intensify its warning language - start using terms such as “mass devastation,” “life-threatening event,” and “catastrophic” to drive home the severity of the storm threat. Kansas and Missouri are the test sites. The project involves the cooperation of local media and emergency agencies.

Did the warning policies work last weekend?

Well, the high-risk warning certainly was accurate, as it was the first time, in April 2006, when 100 tornadoes raged through the Southeast. This time, about 75 tornadoes touched down in Kansas, Oklahoma, Iowa and Nebraska during a 24-hour period beginning at 6 a.m. Saturday.

As for the stronger warning language being tried, well, maybe. No fatalities were reported in Kansas. Some state officials and residents believe the new warning messages made a difference in that state, given the strength of the storms and the heavy damage they inflicted. For example, a tornado hit the Wichita area at night and ripped through a mobile home park, yet no one was killed.

In Iowa, residents of tiny Thurman in the southwest part of the state believe the early high-risk warning alone likely saved lives. No serious injuries were reported, while about three-fourths of the town's homes were destroyed or damaged.

Meanwhile, the six reported fatalities from the storm system occurred in the northwest Oklahoma City of Woodward.

Weather officials also cautioned that many of the tornadoes in Kansas touched down in sparsely populated rural areas. They worry that residents might start tuning out future high-risk warnings and enhanced language because they weren't affected.

Complacency is a valid concern. And with today's highly improved forecasting technology constantly feeding weather information to government agencies and thousands of media outlets, there may be risk of some people tuning out because of information overload.

But we agree with Greg Carbin of the Storm Prediction Center. “The bottom line is there really is no such thing as a perfect forecast, he said Monday. “But the penalty function for missing a significant event is so high, that there's probably a tendency to err on the side of caution.”

And if eventually these stronger, earlier warnings are too often being ignored, keep looking for new ways to get people's attention. Savings lives is worth trying something new.

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