The ‘Stache watch is on, will Branstad go to China?

So the man from Lake Mills might become our man in Beijing. Twists and turns, folks.

If a swirl of media reports, led by a Bloomberg story Saturday, are to be believed, Gov. Terry Branstad is President-elect Donald Trump's likely pick to become U.S. ambassador to China. Branstad told reporters Monday he will meet with Trump in New York this week during an economic development trip. But he said no job has been offered and he's still focused on being the guv.

This possibility has been making the rounds for a while, given Branstad's longtime relationship with Chinese President Xi Jinping, who was a provincial agriculture official when he met the governor in the 1980s. China is the No. 3 destination for Iowa exports, according to the U.S. Commerce Department. And the $1.2 billion in goods Iowa factories and farmers sold to China in 2015 is up 26 percent from 2012.

So Branstad, who arguably has been on more trade missions than Marco Polo, knows a thing or two about Asian trade. He also spent much of the last year passionately insisting that Trump will be the most awesome president ever. Or something like that.

But the Trump-China relationship isn't going to be sweet and easy like selling corn syrup.

Trump spent the presidential campaign vowing to take on China, assailing its trade deals, currency manipulation and regional ambitions. Last week, Trump spoke directly by phone with the leader of Taiwan, breaking 37 years of diplomatic precedent and raising China's ire. Diplomacy, apparently, can be a lot like high school.

Branstad, as ambassador, would be the guy in the middle of all this big power chest-bumping. Imagining him in that role is mind-boggling. He may come to realize Mike Gronstal was an old softy.

Or, the governor still could stay put and preside over a Statehouse fully controlled by his fellow Republicans for only the second time in the career of America's longest-serving governor. He can take a big helping of credit for making it happen.

Branstad could see much of his agenda passed. He could sign tax reforms, cut regulations and put his stamp on changes in the way Iowa provides public education. He could strike at the power of his enemies in public employee unions. He could triple his annual order of ceremonial bill-signing pens.

So which way will he go?

It's nearly impossible to turn down a president-elect offering you a chance to represent your country in one of the most critical diplomatic posts on the planet. For all of my disagreements with Branstad, I do think a desire for public service is among his core, driving impulses. If the job is offered, I'm betting he'll serve.

If he goes, of course, the effect on Iowa politics will be massive. Lt. Gov. Kim Reynolds, already considered his heir and likely 2018 gubernatorial contender, becomes the first woman to serve as Iowa governor. That probably gives her an advantage over potential 2018 rivals for the GOP nomination, including Ag Sec. Bill Northey and Cedar Rapids Mayor Ron Corbett. But it will be a wide-open, hard-fought race, in both parties.

So this could be a big week. Let the ‘stache watch begin.

l Comments: (319) 398-8452; todd.dorman@thegazette.com