The numbers behind the 'no' vote

Bob Vander Plaats is being called a rising star for his success in ousting members of the state Supreme Court.

About 55 percent of the nearly 980,000 votes opposed returning Iowa Supreme Court Chief Justice Marsha Ternus and associate justices Michael Streit and David Baker to the bench.

It was the first time since voters were given the power of retention in the 1960s that they chose to remove Supreme Court justices. You can see how that might make the Sioux City Republican a little giddy.

Already, Vander Plaats is coyly nodding to his role in the upcoming caucuses, talking about how he'll pressure the governor-elect and other Republicans to kneel to his agenda.

But he might want to take a harder look at the numbers before he starts making promises for 2012.

Because when you look closer, his would-be referendum on same-sex marriage starts to fall apart.

In every election over the last decade, a substantial minority of voters have cast ballots against state Supreme Court retention - regardless of justice, rulings or prevailing political winds.

Judicial retention has been on the ballot for decades as a way of keeping the courts accountable. And in the most generic way possible, it has.

For a lot of those "no" voters, it's not about any particular issue - it's not even personal. I ran into a couple of people this week who confessed to "accidentally" helping Vander Plaats' cause.

"I didn't even think," one said. "I always vote against retention."

More accurately, against the idea of retention - that anyone should get too comfortable on the high court. Better to cycle judges through so they've got fresh perspectives, that voter said. He's not alone.

Over the past decade, state Supreme Court justices have earned strikingly similar slices of the vote: In 2000, 23 percent of voters wanted to give Justices Mark S. Cady and James H. Carter the boot.

In 2002, 24.3 percent voted not to retain Justices Michael Streit and Marsha Ternus.

In 2004, votes against retention came in between 23 and 27.6 percent. In 2008 - 27 to 28.2 percent.

There's no way to know how many habitual "no" voters are being counted as soldiers in Vander Plaats' single-issue campaign.

And combined with the thousands of voters who didn't weigh in on retention at all - especially young voters who tend not to understand what all the same-sex marriage fuss is about - the vote doesn't look so dramatic.

But is it a big enough star for Vander Plaats to hitch a wagon to?

I guess we'll see.