The Model Speaks

It's easy to feel jittery these days, as snow melts and rain falls and the Cedar River rises.

But not everyone is anxious. Just look at the Army Corps of Engineers' cost-benefit model for flood mitigation, or “The Model” for short. He's cool as a computerized cucumber. I had to know why, so I asked him for an interview.

Mr. Model, I hear you were created in 1970, the year I was born. Some coincidence, huh?

“Not really, from a statistical standpoint. And unlike you, I look the same as the day I was printed,” The Model said, dryly.

OK. Moving on. According to your calculations, the risk of another catastrophic flood in Cedar Rapids over the next 50 years is so low that it's not cost effective for the federal government to build our locally preferred system of levees and flood walls. Correct?

“Yes. The value of the property remaining after the flood of 2008, combined with the very low risk of another 500-year flood event, means the potential loss over the life of the mitigation project does not justify its cost in the eyes of the federal government,” The Model said, mathematically. “Your ratio is simply less than one.”

Fascinating. But what about other data, from the University of Iowa, etc., showing that our epic flood was not some 500-year fluke and that our risk is higher? And what about our worsening, wicked weather pattern?

“That does not compute. I am designed to provide bureaucrats with apples that can be easily compared to other apples. You would have me look at oranges and maybe even mangos. Pretty soon, we'd have a fruit cocktail. That would be statistical chaos.

“As for climate change, never heard of it. My recommendation would be to alert President Nixon,” The Model said, historically.

Surely you understand the very large, far-reaching economic, social and political implications of another destructive flood here? Potential costs to this region and state are incalculable. Not to mention rattled nerves every spring.

“Input error. Not part of my formula,” The Model said, dismissively.

So what would fit into your cost-benefit ratio?

“Maybe ring levees or walls around Quaker, Cargill and downtown. Protect the big stuff on the east side. Don't sweat the stuff on the west side,” The Model said, geographically.

Ring levee is a good name, because any local politician who goes for that plan could develop a ringed neck.

But isn't there any way you might change your mind, Mr. Model?

“Oh yes. If Cedar Rapids would only flood a few more times, that would make flood protection much more cost effective, according to my calculations,” The Model said, ironically.

Comments: (319) 398-8452 or todd.dorman@gazcomm.com