Reynolds picks net over gross

Gov. Kim Reynolds' administration has struck a small blow to fake math, and that's good news.

You might recall former Gov. Terry Branstad campaigned in 2010 on a promise to create 200,000 jobs in Iowa over five years. It was an ambitious objective meant to underscore his administration's commitment to boost business in Iowa. Never mind doubts over how much job creating any governor actually does.

Trouble is, in order to meet such a lofty goal, number crunchers with Iowa Workforce Development had to come up with something called 'gross over-the-month employment gains.” Basically, it counted jobs gained but did not subtract jobs lost.

Not counting jobs lost gives an incomplete picture of what's actually happening, employment-wise. It was a bogus figure, released for political effect. In December 2015, the Branstad administration declared mission accomplished, insisting that gross over-the-month gains had cleared the 200,000 threshold. Subtract jobs lost, and the real net gain was actually around 100,000.

But sharp-eyed Mike Owen, executive director of the Iowa Policy Project, noticed something was missing from last week's state unemployment report. 'Gross over-the-month employment gains” were no longer included. Apparently, when Branstad went to China, he took alternative job math with him.

Owen says Branstad's final job growth tally was a net gain of 106,900 between January 2011 and when he left office in May. Under the Branstad counting method, the gross gain was 226,300. The real number is not too shabby. The bogus one reflects a governor who cared more about political perception than playing it straight. What other numbers did he fudge?

So it's a welcome sign that Reynolds isn't going to tout dishonest jobs numbers. And, with any luck, we might see the end of overinflated gubernatorial jobs promises in our time.

These sorts of claims rarely wear well. Former Gov. Tom Vilsack claimed his Grow Iowa Values Fund would create tens of thousands of jobs, but never met its objective. Ditto with former Gov. Chet Culver, who predicted his I-JOBS infrastructure bonding program would create 30,000 jobs. When the dust settled, the program's real jobs effect was only a fraction of that figure.

Playing it straight would have been a better strategy. Branstad could have touted a solid 100,000-plus jobs achievement instead of a widely condemned fake number. Vilsack's program could have been judged by its successes instead of some job tally. Culver's program played a major role in helping cities like Cedar Rapids recover from flooding in 2008. Instead, 'big debt Chet” had to defend falling short of his jobs goal.

A note to the gubernatorial aspirants of 2018: don't do it. Resist the temptation to declare Iowa will create X-number of jobs over the next X-number of years thanks to your Grow Iowa's Growth agenda, or whatever the focus groups liked best. It's a trap.

Ambitious goals are great. We expect them. But voters know bloated flimflam when they hear it. They've been down the State Fair midway. Be a leader, not a carnival barker.

l Comments: (319) 398-8262; todd.dorman@thegazette.com