Mittens Stiffs Poll of Straw, Sir Newt Sustains Mere Flesh Wound

Mitt Romney is skipping out on Iowa's greatest fake vote.  That, my friends, is a story with national implications. Oh, yes it is.

Can a guy who has a decent chance of winning a real Republican presidential nomination damage his standing by failing to feed and amuse thousands of Iowans, in an effort to get them to cast fake votes in his favor at a basketball arena six-ish months before the actual caucuses? Nah.

The former Mass. guv won the Ames GOP Straw Poll in 2007, spending bushels of bucks to buy fake votes and a big dose of Mittmentum, or so he thought. But the Arkansas Huckster rolled in to hammer his rockin' axe at a bargain basement picnic, got second place and went on to win the caucuses. Well I'll be danged.

So this time around, Mitt says he's not playing. Gonna focus on real elections, raisin' real money and such. Really, who can blame him?

It's fitting that the Straw Poll site is near Jack Trice Stadium, where Iowa and Iowa State will renew their football rivalry not long after Republicans hold their show poll. That annual game is for Iowa what the poll is for Romney.

If Iowa wins, the nation's football experts shrug. If Iowa State wins, the national verdict is Iowa must really stink. Is that fair to Iowa State? Of course not. That's just how it is. The expectations game is cruelest to favorites.

So Romeyhas nothing to gain. Even if he goes low budget and low key, expectations will dictate a strong showing for the "frontrunner."  Everyone is scouting for reasons Romney will falter. Stories about his campaign are written like pre-obits for a patient in perfect health, filled with potential causes of death. (health care, climate change, chronic flipping, acute flopping etc.) The straw poll would probably just add another. "Breaking -- T-Paw Big Draw Exposes Romney Straw Flaws," etc.

Now, of course, there will be gripe-a-grousing from Iowa Republicans who already dislike Romney, or who think that the Straw Poll is just one more sacred litmus test real Republicans have to pass. It is a critical organizational...blah, blah, blah...just make all checks payable to RPI.

In a reality based world of reasonableness, it's an important party fundraiser that happens to have a straw poll attached. With any luck, Huckabee's cheap precedent will put the event back in proper perspective after it grew into an bloated circus. Republicans really aren't well served by knocking out candidates with faux ballots months before real caucusing. They're much better off letting this crazy, slow-evolving race play out as long as possible.  

And even though the media will be there in hordes, I think the tone of straw poll coverage has changed. There's plenty of skepticism in this event as a real test of campaign strength.  It's an entertaining show during a slow news month. And this time, the Fox News debate before the poll event may actually overshadow the circus. Romney will participate in the debate.

In a related development, former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty has announced that he's participating in the Ames poll even though he now strongly opposes federal straw subsidies. The Wall Street Journal has called his stand "preposterously heroic."

NEWTRON'S BOMB -- Newt Gingrich's campaign remains, he says. It's just that all the people are gone.

If you bought shares in "en masse" on the Media Word Usage Exchange, your ship came in Thursday when news broke that Gingrich's campaign staff, nationally and in Iowa, strode for the door "en masse." It seems like only yesterday his "Dancing Queen" ring tone was strumming our Iowa heartstrings.

This development requires deep analysis, but only if you thought Newt Gingrich had any chance whatsoever of ever winning anything at all, even with a full staff. I did not. Dead campaign is now deader at this hour.