Little Golden Book of Job-Counting

Over at the Iowa Policy Project, Colin Gordon put together a nifty primer that explains how to count jobs.  It's pretty simple and straightforward.

But I think I can help Gordon make his points even simpler, because I grew up on a steady diet of Little Golden Books.

Here's the story of the "Three Job-Counting Bears."

Once upon a time, there were three bears trying to find the best way to count jobs in Iowa since Gov. Terry Branstad took office. The governor vowed that, if he was elected, Iowa would create 200,000 jobs in five years. A very big goal, indeed. One morning, the bears hashed it out over porridge.

The first bear works for the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Bureau Bear says the key stat is net job growth, subtracting job losses from job gains.

But the second bear, who works for the Iowa Policy Project, says net jobs doesn't tell you the whole story. Policy Bear thinks a better measure is looking at how many jobs the state lost during the recession and how many jobs are needed to keep up with population growth. Policy Bear says we should measure how well net job gains are filling those gaps:

For this reason, our monthly “Iowa JobWatch” accounts for both the raw job numbers and for change over time in the state's labor force. Our current jobs deficit - the number of jobs we would need to recover from the recession and keep up with population growth - is 55,100.

So Bureau Bear says Branstad is 143,400 jobs short of his very big goal. While Policy Bear says a more realistic/economically relevant jobs deficit is 55,100.

But the third bear, who works in the governor's office, says he has invented a new way to count jobs.

"See, everything's just right," Branstad Bear says.

Bureau Bear and Policy Bear glare at Branstad Bear. "What's in that porridge of yours?" they ask.

Then things get kind of quiet, and sort of awkward.

Finally, Bureau Bear speaks up. "I guess we have an answer to that age old question. Does a bear count jobs in the woods?"

The all have a very good laugh at that one. A very good laugh, indeed.  The End.