Let the speculation commence

This is the sort of weather that lends itself to sitting by the fire, sipping a hot beverage of your choice, gazing into the dancing flames and pondering the 2018 race for governor.

And now you're wondering what's in my mug.

Yes, it is unreasonably early. But 2018 promises to be the most interesting gubernatorial campaign we've seen in many, many moons. Barring an unexpected move by Gov. Terry Branstad to seek a, gulp, seventh term, we'll have a wide-open tussle for Terrace Hill. And, although it's so early, the jockeying for position and support among aspirants for Iowa's top political job will begin any day now.

Speculation already has commenced. And it has a local flavor.

'I could see Ron do it,” said Doug Gross, a longtime Republican insider and former gubernatorial candidate, talking about Cedar Rapids Mayor Ron Corbett on a Des Moines political webcast last week. 'He's a very strong leader, a very strong personality.”

Gross spent more than a year helping Cedar Rapids make its case for a casino license while working closely with Corbett. So his understanding of the mayor's ambitions may be more than a guess. Gross was one among several prominent Republicans who played roles in the casino saga.

It's not the first time I've heard the mayor mentioned. But the GOP field could be crowded. Branstad will be throwing his clout behind Lt. Gov. Kim Reynolds. 'She is next in line to be governor,” Branstad said on Iowa Public Television back in January. There's been persistent talk that Branstad will hand Reynolds the reins before his sixth term is finished, although the governor denies he'll step down early.

Iowa Agriculture Sec. Bill Northey is a big statewide vote-getter who would be a formidable candidate. Another local guy, House Speaker Kraig Paulsen, R-Hiawatha, rates a mention.

Maybe 'Governor Corbett” sounds odd to our local ears. Corbett was too busy with mayoral business on Monday to join the speculation. But objectively, it's not far-fetched.

Corbett has a good resume, as a former house speaker, chamber of commerce leader and two-term mayor of Iowa's second-largest city. He can run on his central role in the city's recovery from the Flood of 2008 and a string of economic development successes since. Serving in a non-partisan office has helped him steer clear of partisan fights, which could be appealing in a general election.

I think the big question is whether he could win a GOP primary. Although it made sense for local needs to forge project labor agreements with unions on recovery projects, to doggedly pursue every last state and federal dime for those projects and to campaign multiple times for a local-option sales tax for flood protection and roads, those efforts also could be spun into primary attacks. We learned in the just-completed campaign that political strategists given an inch can run miles with TV ads.

But really, we have no idea what the political landscape will look like by 2018. In 2010, we knew nothing about 2014. Politics can be unpredictable and ever-changing, sort of like our weather.

l Comments: (319) 398-8452; todd.dorman@thegazette.com