Is high water the 'new normal'?

Remember how much snowier Iowa winters were back when you were a kid?

You're not alone. In fact, when state climatologist Harry Hillaker talks to groups around the state, nine out of 10 hands go up when he asks who thinks winters used to be whiter.

“The interesting thing is, it doesn't matter what age group you're talking to,” Hillaker told me when we talked on the phone Tuesday.

Then he shows them the data from the last 100 years: “There's just no trend at all.”

Hillaker thinks the snowy years must shine more clearly in peoples' memory while the other years fade away.

Something to think about as state officials tour flood-wracked communities throughout Eastern Iowa.

“We are now dealing with constant flood-related issues,” Gov. Chet Culver said Monday, urging Iowans to think of flooding as “the new normal.”

By constant, Culver's referring to the last four, wet years - an eternity in politics, maybe, but a blink in geologic time. And the causes of recent weather patterns are just as vast and unknowable - much simpler and more complex than the usual suspects can account for: farm tile, development, global warming. The short answer is that it's been raining. A lot.

Hillaker told me the first seven months of 2010 have been the third wettest since 1873. Last year was the 11th wettest on record, 2008 and 2007 the fourth and fifth, respectively.

More rain equals more runoff - a lot more - regardless of any other factor.

“Most people are trying to latch on to some explanation other than that we're just getting a lot of rain,” Hillaker told me.

But development on the Iowa scale of things is not a big issue, especially in the rural areas most recently affected by floods. The jury is out on whether field tile makes flooding worse or better or has any affect at all. And Iowa temperatures haven't changed enough in recent years to significantly change the rate of evaporation - where most of our rain water goes.

The answer is simpler, it seems, if less satisfying. Recent flooding has everything to do with when and where the rain falls.

So is it the new normal?

“That's one of the things I wish I had a good answer for,” Hillaker said. The answer: maybe.

It could continue to be wet for the next few summers. It might turn dry. If it does, we could have a host of other issues to worry about, new scapegoats to find.

“You can't make things easy, it seems,” Hillaker said. “Especially when it comes to weather.”

Comments: (319) 339-3154; jennifer.hemmingsen@gazcomm.com