Here’s how Iowa Democrats flipped one pro-Trump district

In a surprise upset Tuesday, a Democrat won the Jan. 28 special election to fill an open seat in the Iowa Senate. In a solidly red Senate District 35, which voted for President Donald Trump by a large margin in the recent general election, Democrat Mike Zimmer defeated Republican Katie Whittington by just under four points.

The special election was to fill the vacancy created by the resignation of Chris Cournoyer, who was recently appointed by Gov. Kim Reynolds to be Lieutenant Governor of Iowa.

Its result made national news — Newsweek, The New York Times, and The Hill were among the national outlets that took an interest. Mentions of the race made their way into cable news commentary Wednesday.

The way some state and national Democrats put it, Zimmer’s election was a stunning departure from the sentiment that saw Donald Trump take the same district by 21 points not three months ago and boosted Reynolds to huge policy wins over the last several years.

"Trump has wasted no time showing Americans exactly who he is — a liar who will put billionaires above working families — and Americans have responded in kind by turning their backs on the MAGA GOP in the months since the presidential election,” said Democratic National Committee Executive Director Sam Cornale in a statement about the election.

Said Iowa Senate Minority Leader Janice Weiner: "Mike Zimmer's victory in Senate District 35, which President Donald Trump won in November with nearly 60% of the vote, is a clear rejection of the Republican agenda led by Kim Reynolds and the Senate Republicans that have failed Iowans."

It’s not that I want to burst the bubble of Iowa Democrats immediately after they’ve received their first piece of good news since that one poll showing Kamala Harris leading Trump in Iowa just before Election Day. Especially since this good news is real.

But an about-face with the intensity Weiner and Cornale implied isn’t realistic. Not in a state where Republicans still have supermajorities in both legislative chambers and the Big Kim Energy still is a force to be reckoned with.

Are Trump, Reynolds and the Republican agenda truly to blame for the surprise Democrat victory? Surprisingly, the victor is among those hesitant to embrace that theory.

“When this went nationwide … the national media was trying to make it a rejection of Trump policies, and I was like, ‘I don’t know about that,’” said Zimmer, speaking with The Gazette on Thursday.

“Almost overnight,” says Clinton County Republican Party chair Tim Striley, the parties found themselves having to “put a convention together, try to reach out to caucus goers from last year to return and vote on someone who just decided to run in a manner of a few days, just after the new year.”

Striley isn’t making any excuse for why his party’s candidate lost. But his point is notable. Between Cournoyer’s Dec. 16 swearing-in, the Jan. 14 deadline to file nominating paperwork, and the Jan. 28 election, state and local party officials had to recruit potential candidates, organize a nominating convention, choose their party’s nominee and organize a campaign — all in a span of 43 days, with Christmas and New Year’s holidays rolled in.

In a normal election cycle, candidates who declare before a primary have almost eight months between the filing deadline and Election Day. Even if no candidate declares before the filing deadline, a candidate nominated later by party convention would have no fewer than 76 days under state law to wage a campaign.

Nomination by convention, the prescribed way to choose candidates for a special election to fill a legislative vacancy, also guarantees that nominees are chosen by only a very few registered party voters in the district — no more than a handful from each precinct.

That tiny fraction of the district’s registered Republicans were tasked with choosing the party’s candidate at their nominating convention may have may have played a role in the special election’s first surprise: Instead of presumed favorite Tom Determann, a state representative from Camanche, delegates chose Whittington, a local activist from Clinton.

Three Republicans had sought the Republican candidacy. Zimmer, the board president for Central DeWitt schools, was unopposed for the Democratic nomination.

Securing the nomination only requires the OK from convention delegates. (Just ask Kamala Harris.) Winning a political campaign, however, requires much more: a smart strategy, an organized operation, and a cohesive group of leaders. (Again, just ask Kamala Harris.)

Unfortunately for Republicans, Whittington’s organization did not embody those characteristics, according to sources familiar with the campaign.

Attempts to contact Whittington’s campaign to offer and coordinate help from canvassers was difficult, said one volunteer who joined the effort to aid the campaign, speaking on the condition of anonymity out of concern for potential backlash.

Another noted an apparent understanding among those who might receive media inquiries on Whittington’s behalf: that they were to be ready to make excuses and proactively decline media requests.

Yet another volunteer implied that Whittington’s campaign manager was “blocking calls,” according to text messages obtained by The Gazette.

Winning candidates almost always draw strong backing from other elected officials in their party as part of their strategy for success. Whittington’s appointed campaign manager, Brent Smith of Clinton, was not fit to foster that support.

Smith’s known (and documented) history calls into question any ability that State Rep. Norlin Mommsen, whose district makes up part of SD 35, should reasonably be expected to have to support Whittington’s campaign.

In 2005, Smith pled guilty to felony charges for intentionally setting fire to a barn in rural DeWitt owned by the family of Denise Wagner-Mommsen and Ardith Barr, Mommsen’s wife and mother-in-law, respectively. Smith spent time in prison for the crime.

Whittington’s fundraising mirrored the lack of organizational wisdom that hamstrung her campaign. Disclosure reports from before the Jan. 23 filing deadline show that she raised a lackluster $5,795 in campaign funds, over half of which came from the Clinton County Republican Central Committee and the Iowa Liberty Network in Le Mars.

During that same time frame (which did not include the final five days of the campaign period,) Zimmer raised almost $38,000 in campaign funds both from reliable Democrat donors and local supporters. Former Democratic gubernatorial candidate Fred Hubbell contributed $5,000. Party organizations in Scott and Jackson Counties kicked in $1,000 and $2,000, respectively. A local labor union added another $5,000.

Supplementing all that, however, were scores of small-dollar donations from a concerted Democrat fundraising effort, and a slew of in-kind contributions to kick-start campaign events and activities.

“We just went about our business, we ran a very positive campaign,” said Zimmer on Thursday. “I answered every newspaper request, every single news outlet that contacted me and said, could we do an interview …

“We were invited to show up the chamber forum to meet, and I’m giving grace to Katie here,” Zimmer continued in a tone that turned noticeably hesitant.

“Katie opted not to do any of that,” he finally said.

Zimmer attributes his win in part to maximizing his reach with potential voter contacts. While registered Republicans were not on his list, his campaign followed state Democrats’ advice and extended canvassing beyond just the loyal registered Democrat voters, reaching out to voters who could be persuaded to “lean Democrat.” He credits being able to seal the deal right at voters’ doors.

Conversely, “I think (Whittington’s campaign) just took it for granted that they could put anybody on there with an ‘R’ behind their name,” he said.

Ultimately, the race that turned the heads of national pundits came down to the simple, boring basics of a good campaign.

“Whenever we get people to show up to the polls, that’s who’s going to win,” said Zimmer.

I found nothing to suggest that the Iowa GOP or county Republican committees failed to support their candidate. Having campaigned for the same party in my past life as a political animal, I know that there’s only so much the organization can do when a candidate is not willing or able to put in the work or if dysfunction or poor decision-making dooms a campaign.

Zimmer, for his part, understands that his victory is atypical — in more than one way.

“The way you run a special election campaign and the way you run a general election campaign are two different deals.” Not only is turnout remarkably lower, in a special election, says Zimmer, but donor resources don’t have to be “divided among different races.”

“Make no mistake, I’m completely aware that when it goes to a general election, it will be a different campaign,” he added.

So the novice legislator-elect is already looking ahead to 2026.

Hopefully, so are Republicans. Now they can do so having learned what can happen if a candidates expects to win without showing up to play.

Comments: 319-398-8266; althea.cole@thegazette.com