Doubts about Branstad's mammoth jobs goal overshadow significant progress

Years ago, Waylon and Willie strongly urged mamas to not let their babies grow up to be cowboys.

If I could sing, and boy can't I, I'd urge mamas to also avoid allowing their progeny to become governors who make outlandish job creation promises that will eventually make them look silly. They'll end up all depressed, sitting in some Godforsaken honkey tonk, spilling rotgut on their spreadsheets. Trust me.

This week, Gov. Terry Branstad was grilled about Iowa's progress toward his whopper of a campaign promise to create 200,000 jobs in five years. The governor contends he's ahead of schedule, with nearly 70,000 jobs created.

Trouble is, the governor is using “gross” instead of “net,” as in the net number of jobs created after subtracting jobs lost. Any economist will tell you that net is the thing when it comes to tracking job growth. Any first-grader will tell you 7 minus 5 is not 7.

Between January 2011, when he took office, and March 2012, Iowa's seasonally adjusted, non-farm employment has grown by a net 15,400 jobs, according to figures compiled by Iowa Workforce Development. A healthy clip and a welcome improvement over recent years, but quite a ways from 70,000, and well behind the pace for a 200,000-job explosion.

'Tis a puzzlement that our governors cannot seem to resist the temptation of making a massive job creation promise that later requires statistical gymnastics to appear remotely plausible. Is it something in the Statehouse coffee?

Gov. Tom Vilsack bragged that the Iowa Values Fund would create and retain 50,000 jobs. Gov. Chet Culver vowed that I-JOBS infrastructure bonding would create 30,000. Nope, and not even close.

Now, we have Branstad's 200,000. Maybe our next governor will vow to create 1 million jobs. Why not?

Well, for one thing, it's really stupid politics. Voters don't buy it. There are ambitious, optimistic moonshot goals that stir public imagination. Then there are hollow haystacks of hype. We know the difference.

And while Branstad is seeking to explain a 200,000-job science fiction story, he's not talking about some positive, but less flashy, realities. Doubts about his big goal overshadow smaller but significant signs of progress. The jobs issue becomes all about failure instead of success.

Since he took office, the state added a net 14,400 manufacturing jobs, 2,400 in the education and health care sector and 1,200 in trade and transportation. Not too shabby.

Should a governor get full credit? Nah. Can he take some credit? Absolutely. It's a proud political tradition, after all, to proclaim how government doesn't create jobs and then praise the success of government job creation efforts.

Sure, you might also have to mention the loss of 5,900 construction jobs, 3,100 professional and business jobs and 1,800 retail trade jobs. Government employment is down 5,000, including a loss of state jobs the governor did have a hand in slicing.

Not all good news. But at least we'd be trading bravado for candor.