Divided social right might make Mitt's night

Remember back in the day when it was conventional wisdom that evangelical/social conservative Republicans in Iowa would rule the leadoff caucuses? Mike Huckabee won four years ago with their united support, and it would surely happen again. Squishy moderatishly flippy Mitt Romney, who lost to Huckabee in Iowa, had better stay away or face a similar embarrassing rebuke.

Now, with just days to go, Romney looks to be within striking distance of a win, or at least a strong showing that will be considered a win in the all important "expectations game." Weird.

Pity the righteous right. If only this had been like judicial retention. If only they could have all voted to just kick Romney out of the race. 

But you have to pick one 'gol dern candidate in this caucus game. There are just so many. And no Huckabee to be found. Science has not figured out how to mix them into a single super conservative with gaydar and a kung fu grip. Science, apparently, is too busy hoaxing us on global warming and evolution.

At first, last summer, it looked like Minnesota U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann would be the pick. She's originally from Iowa, after all,  hits all the hottest buttons and throws very red meat. She surged, and even won the all-important Ames Poll of Straw.

But while her Straw Poll cheers still hung in the humid August air, fancy turned to Gov. Rick Perry, who is also strong on prayer, with awesome hair. But then he started debating and deflating.

Herman Cain? He might be. He could be. He did what? Nah. Newt? Four marriages, including one to Fannie and Freddie? Meh.

Leading evangelical groups also couldn't even make up their collective minds. The Iowa Faith and Freedom Coalition, for one, declined to endorse.

So many, many lonely eyes turned to The FAMiLY Leader, Bob Vander Plaats' group that sprang from his successful 2010 judge-punching exhibition, carrying on his fight for freedom and a steady income. Surely the BVPFL would make a draft pick, after imploring the candidates to sign its marriage vow, which, briefly, pointed out the nuanced family values of slavery, and after inviting most of them over for a Thanksgiving week grilling. Make a king, already.

But the FaMiLY lEAdeR declined to endorse as a group. Still. Vander Plaats and his sidekick Chuck Hurley personally endorsed former Pennsylvania. Sen. Rick Santorum, despite threats from a dismayed fellow Christian gentleman to burn them in effigy.

And that went well:

DAVENPORT, Iowa - An Iowa Christian conservative leader who bestowed his highly sought-after endorsement on presidential candidate Rick Santorum this week is now at the center of a controversy over whether he asked for cash in exchange for his public support.

Less than 48-hours after receiving the backing of Bob Vander Plaats, the head of the prominent evangelical group The Family Leader, Santorum disclosed that the prominent Iowan told him he needed money to make the most out of the endorsement.

And sources familiar with talks between the conservative heavyweight and representatives from several of the Republican presidential campaigns went a step further, describing Vander Plaats' tactics as corrupt.

Vander Plaats flatly denies that he endorsed for cash. And he says it's also untrue that he asked Bachmann to pull out of the race to clear the way for Santormentum.

And yet, the candidate-merging meme continues on into this week. It was Santorum who had to do the flat rejecting on Wednesday:

Former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum flatly rejected a plea on Wednesday from several evangelical Christian pastors to merge his Republican presidential campaign with U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann's in an effort to widen the influence of social conservatives in next week's Iowa caucuses.

Asked about the merger idea after he gave a noon-hour talk in downtown Dubuque, Santorum chuckled and said, “No.”

Bachmann, when asked about a surrender/merger, dramatically handed back a note that said only "Nuts." OK, that did not happen, but I wish it had.

Speaking of Bachmann and Wednesday and indecision, her Iowa campaign chair, social conservative fire-branding state Sen. Kent Sorenson, R-Indianola, quit her and endorsed Texas Congressman Ron Paul's rising campaign. Sorenson actually appeared with Bachmann earlier in the day, then dumped her just before a big Paul rally in Des Moines. Twitter almost exploded around 7 p.m. as some of the nation's most important journalists breathlessly chronicled the whims of a first-term state senator.  

This is just like that time in 6th grade I went to buy Dots at the theater concession stand for Janell Curtis and when I came back she was sitting with Matt Armour. Aww, that's cold. From Radio Iowa's roundup by O.K. Henderson:

“Tonight's a little tough for me. I've been serving as Michele Bachmann's state chair over the last year and while Michele has fought tremendously for my conservative values, I believe we're at a turning point in this campaign,” Sorenson says. “…When the Republican establishment is going to be coming against him over the next few days, I thought it was my duty to come to his aid.”

Paul is a top tier candidate, after all. Fight the power. But Bachmann had a different take:

Bachmann spoke with reporters following her Iowa bus tour last night and she accused the Paul campaign of paying Sorenson “a large amount of money” to make the switch. A spokesman for the Ron Paul campaign denies the charge and says Sorenson is not being paid.

Endorsement. Cash. Flat denial. Sensing a pattern. The flap continues today.

But why Paul? Because he has something for everyone. Some lefties like his foreign policy. Fiscal conservatives love the idea of slashing the federal government. And some social conservatives love the idea of a small, weak federal government that leaves the states alone to do whatever they want. Imagine, 50 little laboratories of theocracy.

But hey, don't look now, Santorum is surging. A CNN poll released Wednesday shows him in third place with 16 percent. After visiting every county and holding hundreds of events, maybe 16 percent doesn't sound like much to you. But it's way better than 7 or 4 or 3. That's just math.

Also math - Santorum lost his Pennsylvania senate seat in 2006 by 18 percentage points, the worst loss by an incumbent senator in the state since direct election started. But we're not in Pennsylvania. This is Iowa, home of the fresh start, and meth-addled Jell-O fans, or so I hear.

And maybe fresh conventional wisdom, something to replace "the monolithic Iowa evangelicals will saddle Republicans with an Iowa winner who can't win. So let's skip it." Instead, divided evangelicals may actually help the Republican establishment use Iowa to start nailing down the nomination for its squishy slick-haired hero.

Iowa, home of Mittmentum. Weird.