Digging into SD 18 Poll Numbers

One question I've been asked quite a bit lately is when, oh when, will we see some public polling numbers in Senate District 18. The answer was Sunday night.

Public Policy Polling surveyed 878 likely voters in the district over the weekend. The automated telephone survey has a 3.3 percent margin of error. The blog Bleeding Heartland asked PPP about its screening methods:

PPP responded that they pulled a list of voters who had voted in at least one of the last three general elections, and the call script began by asking respondents to "hang up now" if they were not planning to vote on Tuesday.

The poll's top headline shows Democrat Liz Mathis with a 52-46 lead over Republican Cindy Golding with 2 percent undecided.

You can read PPP's full poll memo here. Chock full o' numbers.

For politics dorks like myself, there are a lot of interesting currents and crosscurrents in the poll.

The poll shows a 44-44 split over which party voters want in control of the Senate. But just 39 percent of those surveyed approve of Gov. Terry Branstad's job performance and a fairly surprising 16 percent of Republicans polled support Mathis. Branstad's approval is just 33 percent among women, who support Mathis 54-43. Mathis leads 50-48 among men.

President Obama's job approval is just 37 percent, with disapproval at 51. I can see why state Republicans used Golding's first TV ad to try to connect Mathis and Obama.

Forty-six percent of those polled say gay marriage should be illegal, compared to 42 percent who say it should be legal. A total of 66 percent of those surveyed favor either legal gay marriages or civil unions, compared to 30 percent who want no legal recognition for same-sex couples. But only 11 percent said the issue is the most important factor influencing their vote.

The poll, coupled with absentee voting numbers that appear to favor Democrats, should leave Dems cautiously confident they can hold on to the Senate. One thing that makes me a little skeptical of the poll is its partisan breakdown - 39 percent self-identified Democrats, 35 Republicans and 26 independents. The district leans slightly Republican, but with more independents than either party. So the poll leans more to the left than the district.

Mathis trails among independents in the poll 50-45. A potential bright spot for Golding.

Speaking of percentages, the National Weather Services says there's a 100 percent chance of rain Tuesday, with a high of 46 and 25 mph wind gusts. But we Iowans are a hearty stock.