Column - Moment of Truth

It's moment-of-truth time in the race for mayor.

Will Ron Corbett, a candidate for four seasons, lead the City of Five Seasons? Is Brian Fagan the comeback kid? Or can P.T. Larson win enough votes to keep the city shopping for a new mayor past Black Friday?

Polling isn't much help. A Gazette poll of 404 likely voters shows Corbett leading 42 percent to 34 percent, with a whopping 24 percent saying they don't know or won't answer. And the margin of error is plus or minus 4.9 percent.

I've been talking to a lot of folks of all stripes in recent days, and most believe Fagan, the current mayor pro tem, has gained ground in the closing weeks. He's been passionate and skilled in making his central argument: His experience in the trenches has earned him a hot seat at the center of the council table.

Corbett, running since March, is pounding his “change and action” message with commendable discipline. He's got strong support from business and labor and remains the favorite. Still, he's been out there for eight months, and if our poll is right, a lot of voters still aren't sold on Mayor Corbett.

Here are a few factors that could have an impact Tuesday:

Voter anger - The once intense anger aimed at city government, postflood, has cooled. Resentment remains but at a lower volume. Our broader survey of 533 registered voters paints the town beige - the city's flood response gets a “fair” or “good” from 68 percent, 44 percent think the city is idling in neutral between right track and wrong track and 47 percent have “some confidence” in city government. Not exactly peasants with pitchforks.

Still, disgruntled voters show up. The content of ten stay home.

Jim Prosser - Is the city manager a factor? Corbett has made Prosser Fagan's running mate, arguing that the council doesn't move unless Prosser gets a consultant to say how high.

Fagan insists Prosser is performing well. But do voters care? Prosser's approval rating in The Gazette poll is just 25 percent. But 40 percent didn't have an opinion.

Seniors vs. Kids- Corbett, 49, leads by 20 points among voters 56 and older. Fagan, 37, leads by 14 among 18- to 35-year-olds. The generation that turns out wins.

Party Politics - He downplays it, but adding mayor to his resume would make Corbett very attractive for Republicans seeking a future candidate for governor or Congress. That has to make a few Democrats in this town uneasy.

Runoff - If neither Fagan nor Corbett gets 50 percent of the votes plus one, we'll have a December runoff.

» Contact the writer: (319) 398-8452 or todd. dorman@gazcomm.com