Cedar Rapids’ casino bubble has burst

When I read about Cedar Rapids Mayor Ron Corbett's contention that a revived effort to land a casino could provide funding for flood protection, I wondered if he caught a case of March madness.

It reminded me of a basketball player who, at the end of a hard-fought game, just misses a buzzer-beater. It rolls around the rim but won't fall. Heartbreaking. So close. After the game, the same player remains on the floor, shooting that shot over and over again.

Maybe you admire the tenacity. But at some point, it's time to turn out the lights. Think of the poor janitor. He'd like to go home.

Allow me to flip the switch.

Cedar Rapids isn't getting a casino. Not next summer. Not five summers from now. Maybe never. So long as the Racing and Gaming Commission believes its role is to protect existing casino investments from competition, there will be no license for Cedar Rapids. It's been coddling Iowa's casino cartel for years.

I can't fault the mayor's effort to check every pocket, couch cushion and soda machine for enough spare change to make flood protection happen. Shielding the city from another disaster is critical. And the sad fact our federal government has shirked its commitment is maddening.

But Iowa's gambling landscape hasn't become more favorable since Cedar Rapids was rejected in 2014. Sure, adjusted gross casino revenue grew from $1.388 billion in Fiscal Year 2014 to $1.415 billion in 2015, while admissions rose by roughly 700,000. But the specter of dreaded cannibalization, the notion that a Cedar Rapids casino would suck business from Riverside Casino & Golf Resort and the Isle Casino Hotel in Waterloo, remains.

In FY 2013, Riverside's adjusted gross revenues topped $88.6 million, with nearly 1.89 million admissions. In 2015, admissions sank to just over 1.69 million with revenue at $86.7 million. The big drop, roughly 135,000 fewer admissions, came between fiscal years 2014 and 2015. Maybe some of those disgruntled Cedar Rapidians steamed at Riverside CEO Dan Kehl's drive to sink Cedar Crossing in 2014 really did boycott the joint.

The Isle's adjusted gross revenues grew during the same period by more than $2.5 million, but admissions fell by just more than 100,000.

So the assessment delivered in 2014 by a pair of market studies, that Cedar Rapids would grab bucks away from an already saturated, stagnant casino market, still stands. The membership of the Racing and Gaming Commission that agreed and rejected Cedar Rapids 4-1 remains the same.

I suppose Gov. Terry Branstad might shake things up when Jeff Lamberti and Carl Heinrich come up for reappointment next year. A Des Moines Register Iowa Poll released this week found 51 percent of Iowans surveyed favor a smoke-free casino in Cedar Rapids, with 40 percent opposed. A Cedar Rapids gambling joint polled higher than Branstad, who received a 47 percent approval.

But a bill directing the commission to approve a smoke-free license died in the Legislature for the second straight year. It never had a chance against cartel opposition.

So a casino isn't coming to town. But take heart, you can still fill out your brackets.

l Comments: (319) 398-8452; todd.dorman@thegazette.com