Biden’s exit does not guarantee smooth race for Democrats

President Joe Biden announced Sunday that he is withdrawing from his 2024 re-election bid. The President’s exit from the race came after weeks of criticism and increasing pressure following his calamitous performance at the June 27 presidential debate on CNN.

To Republicans, Biden’s declining faculties were obvious for a long time. Even right-leaning moderates hesitant to back Donald Trump questioned Biden’s mental state long before early June, when multiple reports circulated of the latter appearing in a dazed and incoherent state at public events. Videos such as one of Biden appearing to freeze at a Juneteenth celebration at the White House were dismissed by White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre as “cheap fakes,” a claim amplified by national media outlets.

But the debate made Biden’s cognitive shortcomings impossible to deny even with the most generous of media coverage, the most powerful political figures, or the most influential celebrities rushing to defend him. Support waned in droves. High-ranking Democratic officials who initially stood firm in support of Biden started fleeing. Even Hollywood titan George Clooney publicly called for him to bow out not a month raising $28 million for Biden with a glamorous, star-studded fundraiser.

Likely voters have suggested for months what Hollywood and other Democratic elites have only recently acknowledged. Polling averages prior to the debate already showed former president and now-official GOP nominee Donald Trump already leading in the crucial swing state of Nevada, where Biden beat Trump by over two points in 2020. Trump maintains that lead. In Wisconsin, where Biden had a slight edge prior to the debate, the polling average has since leaned increasingly toward Trump.

Trump has also maintained steady leads since as early as March 2024 in Arizona and Georgia, two states that were crucial in securing Biden’s victory in 2020. Even Virginia, a reliably blue state in every presidential election since Barack Obama’s first victory in 2008, shows Trump within striking distance.

Biden’s exit allows Democrats a sigh of relief. But anyone who sees a chance for a major course correction should know that the great reset of the presidential race is not complete. The succeeding nominee will not be determined until the Democratic National Convention beginning August 19. That will take place in Chicago, of all places, where it got a bit … interesting the last time Democrats gathered there to choose a non-incumbent nominee.

Biden has endorsed vice president Kamala Harris to succeed him as the nominee. Harris is not an incumbent and should not be seen as one any more than Al Gore, George H.W. Bush, Hubert Humphrey or Richard Nixon (the first time he ran, anyway.) Although California Gov. Gavin Newsom has endorsed Harris, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer has been floated to potentially seek the nomination. Maybe even a few of the 24 major candidates from the 2020 Democratic primary will join Harris to give it another go. (Eric Swalwell, perhaps?)

There are weeks yet before the convention, and months yet before Election Day. For Trump and Republicans to rest on their laurels would be calamitous to their campaign. For Democrats to assume that the path will be smooth from here isn’t any wiser.

Comments: 319-398-8266; althea.cole@thegazette.com

This story has been updated to reflect Gov. Newsom’s endorsement of Kamala Harris.