All political careers are going to die. For heaven’s sake, does that include Joni Ernst?

A decade ago, Iowa U.S. Sen. Joni Ernst was riding high.

She had just flipped a blue Senate seat and headed to Washington, D.C. to “make ‘em squeal,” as she said in her hog castration-themed TV ad that captivated Iowans. Or made them squirm in their seats. Probably both.

She was picked to give the Republican response to President Barack Obama’s 2015 State of the Union speech. It’s an assignment fraught with danger, but her reviews were good.

In 2016, she was briefly mentioned as a possible vice presidential running mate for Donald Trump, a job Ernst said she turned down. At the 2016 Republican National Convention Ernst was given a prime time speaking slot. But she got bumped out of prime time when the speaker ahead of her, Gen. Michael Flynn, refused to shut up.

Those were the good days.

But with the second coming of Trump, Ernst has had a rough go as she faces a re-election campaign in 2026.

In November, she was defeated by Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton in an election to become conference chair, the No. 3 post in Republican Senate leadership.

In December, she, the first woman combat veteran in the Senate, had the audacity to not immediately embrace Pete Hegseth’s nomination as defense secretary. It might have been the lampshade he was wearing.

She was mercilessly attacked on social media for being a squishy Trumper who ought to get a primary challenge in 2026. Ernst has been a die-hard Trump backer, but it wasn’t enough to save her from the MAGA mob,

And at the end of May came the infamous Parkersburg town hall. During angry questioning from the audience about Medicaid cuts in the “Big, Beautiful” bill, a woman yelled “people are going to die.”

“People are not … well, we all are going to die,” Ernst said. “So, for heaven’s sakes. For heaven’s sakes, folks.”

Even worse was the misinformation she peddled about the proposed $800 billion in Medicaid cuts over 10 years. The cuts, Ernst said, will be covered by savings from kicking undocumented immigrants out of Medicaid. Never mind that illegal immigrants and some legal immigrants are ineligible for coverage.

Also “waste, fraud and abuse” will deliver savings. Yeah, that’s the ticket.

“We’re all going to die” has not just sparked criticism of Ernst. The Wall Street Journal reports her gaffe is being deployed against Republicans across the country. It perfectly sums up Democrats’ contention Republicans are cruel and callous as they prepare to cut Medicaid health coverage for low-income families to pay for tax cuts benefiting the rich.

The same Journal report said Ernst’s future is now uncertain, “with some Iowa watchers wondering whether she will stand for re-election.” The speculation is “widespread” among Iowa and Washington “Republican consultants, aides and strategists … “

That’s a stretch. Ernst remains favored to hold her seat. She’s going to run.

But Ernst is potentially facing a GOP primary with two, or maybe more, candidates running at her from the right. Although these are not well-known contenders.

Former state Sen. Jim Carlin is running, after making an uphill primary run against U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley in 2022, losing the primary by 40 points.

“Iowans deserve a senator who doesn't just talk the talk back home, but consistently votes conservative in Washington,” Carlin said in a campaign ad played before he took the stage at a Cedar Rapids event. He said people are tired of “phony” politicians.

Libertarian-turned-MAGA Joshua Smith also said he’s running for the GOP nomination.

Smith’s first campaign ad says, “Hi Joni, you suck. RINO removal 2026.”

"You suck Joni. That's just the nicest way I can summarize how we feel about your reign so far. And please believe me when I say, the longer this goes on, the louder I am going to get,” Smith said in the ad.

These guys are not going to win the GOP primary. But they can cause trouble for Ernst if they travel around the state and release videos talking about Ernst as a phony RINO.

There is also a potentially formidable list of Democratic challengers.

There’s Nathan Sage, the former director of the Knoxville Chamber of Commerce and a Marine and Army veteran. He is a straight talker, sometimes including swears.

His challenge rated a Washington Post column by Jonathan Capehart.

“Sage’s campaign video leans in on his working-class roots and his paycheck-to-paycheck present,” Capehart wrote. “He slams Ernst as a “corporate Republican” who has forsaken Iowans to do the bidding of billionaires. But what stands out is a tone we’re used to hearing from the mad-at-everything world of MAGA.”

“Only 2 percent of Congress come from the working class. We built the damn table. It’s time we had a seat at it,” Sage says in the video.

State Rep. J.D. Scholten is running for the Democratic nomination. His claim to fame was nearly beating former U.S. Rep Steve King in the overwhelmingly red 4th District in 2018. The Guardian newspaper in the UK describes him as a “Beer-drinking, working-class populist.”

His entry into the Senate race came just as the Cook Political Report moved the race from solid Republican to leans Republican.

This is huge! OK, it’s not.

Oh, and as a 44-year-old, Scholten, a seemingly retired pro ballplayer, stepped in when the Sioux City Explorers needed an emergency pitcher for one game last summer. The Explorers won the game, and Scholten stayed with the team, posting a 6-2 record in 11 starts. This summer, he’s on the roster full time.

No one in the Democratic primary can match that.

State Sen. Zach Wahls has announced his Senate candidacy. Jackie Norris, former chief of staff for Michelle Obama, is mulling a run, as is state Rep. Josh Turek. Some Democrats I’ve talked with say we need to keep an eye on Turek. He’s impressive and could win the nomination, they insist.

Turek represented the United States at four Paralympics in basketball and is a three-time medalist, two gold. No one in the Democratic primary can match that.

So, Ernst has her work cut out for her. She’s still the favorite, but her campaign caravan could get dented up plenty along the road back to the Senate.

We’re all going to die, but does that include her Senate campaign? Ernst just needs to make her political career great again. Good luck.

(319) 398-8262; todd.dorman@thegazette.com