UNI football opponent breakdown: Western Illinois

A lot has been said and written about Northern Iowa's crazy tough start schedule-wise, with games against ranked teams on the road. But the team coming to the UNI-Dome on Saturday can relate – just to close the season instead of begin. Western Illinois, which is receiving votes in both FCS polls, plays four of its final six games on the road and all six are against ranked teams. The Leathernecks are 3-2 overall and 2-0 so far in Missouri Valley Football Conference play – and one of the two losses was to No. 1 Coastal Carolina and WIU led into the fourth quarter of that game.

The Panthers (2-3, 0-2 MVFC) are certainly not out of the postseason conversation, but could very well be with a loss to the Leathernecks. WIU has shown an ability to play well on the road in the past, though it's a different animal to play in the UNI-Dome than it is most other places in the country.

Each week we'll have the Panthers' opponents schedule and results, its offensive and defensive outlook, highlight key players and offer a prediction with the help of a beat writer for the opposing team. This week it's John Bohnenkamp, who covers Western Illinois for The Hawk Eye in Burlington.

WESTERN ILLINOIS SCHEDULE/RESULTS

Sept. 3 vs No. 25 Eastern Illinois, W, 33-5

Sept. 12 at Illinois, L, 44-0

Sept. 19 at No. 1 Coastal Carolina, L, 34-27

Oct. 3 vs Southern Illinois, W, 37-36

Oct. 10 vs South Dakota, W, 40-21

Oct. 17 at No. 12/14 UNI

Oct. 24 at No. 4 Illinois State

Oct. 31 vs No. 11/12 Youngstown State

Nov. 7 at No. 2 North Dakota State

Nov. 14 at No. 21/RV Indiana State

Nov. 21 vs No. 7 South Dakota State

OFFENSIVE OUTLOOK

Western Illinois didn't get off to the greatest start offensively this season, but the Leathernecks' spread offense has grown by leaps and bounds the last three weeks. WIU spreads the field, using width to its advantage. They get a lot out of quarterback Trenton Norvell, as well as running back Nikko Watson and utilize a no-huddle offense – but not necessarily hurry-up – in which the plays are called from the line of scrimmage and calls are sent in from the sideline, much like UNI.

The Leathernecks have figured something out, winning their first two MVFC league games and pushing No. 1 Coastal Carolina to the brink in the last three weeks. The offense went past 500 yards in each of those games, outgaining opponents by an average of 156 yards per game. That's not a small number, especially when it coincides with getting beat in time of possession in the first two league games. They don't necessarily control the clock, but make up for it with long drives in key moments.

Over these last three big games for WIU, the Leathernecks have averaged 330 yards passing and 199 yards rushing. The running game has become much more successful, but this team is still considered more of a passing-focused team, especially given how good it's been. That's propelled by an offensive line that has protected Norvell well, allowing only two sacks all season so far. With how UNI has performed on defense this season, this week is a litmus test for how the Leathernecks stand up to the best of the conference.

From Bohnenkamp on Western Illinois' offensive outlook:

'Quarterback Trenton Norvell has improved since struggling in the first two games this season. He's thrown for 1,208 yards and eight touchdowns, and has done a better job of managing the offense. Wide receiver Lance Lenoir Jr. has caught 30 passes for 443 yards. The running game has improved with the return of RB Nikko Watson, who missed all of last season because of disciplinary reasons.'

DEFENSIVE OUTLOOK

If there's such a thing as a traditional MVFC defense (see: UNI), WIU is it. A base 4-3 with some nickel mixed in, the Leathernecks play a hard-nosed brand of defense. They have a talented linebacker corps and the defense as a whole is led by that group. They throw some different looks inside – called 'aggressive' by UNI Coach Mark Farley – to muddy up the running game.

Where WIU lacks on defense appears to be on the defensive line. The Leathernecks' top seven tacklers are either linebackers or defensive backs, which can stem from a number of things, but certainly indicates needed growth among defensive linemen. That said, WIU has held opponents to 168 yards per game rushing on 3.8 yards per carry. The linebackers are ball-hawks, and the defense has a nose for forcing it out. WIU opponents have fumbled 10 times, with eight recoveries by the Leathernecks.

Linebacker Brett Taylor leads the defense with 55 tackles, three for loss and one interception this season. He's bolstered by Adam Brott (28 tackles, 2.5 for loss) and Michael Bishoff (23 tackles, one for loss) in the middle of the field. The secondary is young but talented, holding three of the top four spots on the tackle list. They've intercepted opponents just three times (the other two from a linebacker and a defensive lineman), but have 21 pass breakups, and tackle very well in the open field.

From Bohnenkamp on Western Illinois' defensive outlook:

'Linebacker Brett Taylor, a Macomb High School grad, has stepped into a starting role and played well as a third-year sophomore. He has an interception return and a fumble return for touchdowns. Leathernecks are solid up front, and have some talent, although inexperience, in the secondary.'

KEY PLAYERS

Brett Taylor, LB – Leading tackler, team leader, difference maker. He's an easy pick (one with which the team's beat writer agrees) because he's everywhere on the field for the Leathernecks. He's got more solo tackles (24) than all but five other players on the team have total tackles. He's in the backfield and disrupts the opposing running game with regularity. He directs the defense and gives them the spark that's helped them improve each week.

Trenton Norvell, QB – Quarterback seems like an obvious pick every week, but Norvell can't be overlooked this week – especially given how much better he's gotten as the season has gone on. The last three games have seen him throw at a 60.1 percent clip and average 330 yards per game. He's also thrown for seven touchdowns to two interceptions in that span. His command of this spread offense has grown, and he'll need to be as sharp as he's been to work past a UNI defense that has been very sharp.

Bohnenkamp on Western Illinois' key players:

'Brett Taylor has been big all season, and will get better as he gets more experience. Trenton Norvell has been a starter since he arrived on campus, and his experience shows.'

PREDICTION

UNI has gone strength versus strength a few times this season, and this will be another one. The WIU passing game and the UNI passing defense are (with arguments to be heard) the best parts of both units, and they'll go at it again. If Norvell can get the Leathernecks in some kind of rhythm and wear down the UNI defense, they can have success. That's happened a few times this season, where UNI has been on the field defensively for a large amount of the game – and all the talent in the world can't be used if the players are gassed.

Ultimately, and especially if those two units work against each other, the game will be decided on who controls the clock and can establish a consistent ground game. UNI couldn't do that against Illinois State and was back and forth against North Dakota State. If Sawyer Kollmorgen and/or Aaron Bailey can get some help from the receivers, they can supplement an improving ground game. The UNI offense has shown great success against the read-option – which feasts on aggressive linebackers. UNI needs this game more than WIU at this point, and after the last two games, the Panthers are out for blood back in the UNI-Dome. Northern Iowa 28, Western Illinois 20.

From Bohnenkamp:

'Leathernecks have a lot of momentum now, and they showed last year they can win on the road. WIU 34, UNI 28.'

l Comments: (319) 368-8884; jeremiah.davis@thegazette.com