UNI football opponent breakdown: Southern Illinois

One more to go for the Northern Iowa football team in pursuit of a second straight at-large FCS Playoff berth. The Panthers welcome the Southern Illinois Salukis to the UNI-Dome for senior day at 4 p.m.

The Salukis enter the final week at 3-7 overall, 2-5 in Missouri Valley Football Conference play and have lost three straight after an upset of No. 16 Youngstown State on Oct. 24. But other than a 42-21 loss to Illinois State last week, SIU's other six losses came by a combined 17 points — including one-point losses on the road to Indiana and Western Illinois. It's a team that is 1-6 in one-possession games, but has had a chance to win all of those behind a high-powered offense.

They'll face off against a UNI defense that is playing as good as any point this season, and has much more at stake.

Each week we'll have the Panthers' opponents schedule and results, its offensive and defensive outlook, highlight key players and offer a prediction with the help of a beat writer for the opposing team. This week it's Todd Hefferman, who covers Southern Illinois for the Southern Illinoisan in Carbondale, Ill.

SOUTHERN ILLINOIS SCHEDULE/RESULTS

Sept. 5 at Indiana, L, 48-47

Sept. 12 at Southeast Missouri, L, 27-24

Sept. 26 vs No. 10 Liberty, W, 34-13

Oct. 3 at Western Illinois, L, 37-36

Oct. 10 vs Missouri State, W, 73-26

Oct. 17 at No. 21 Indiana State, L, 39-36

Oct. 24 vs No. 16 Youngstown State, W, 38-31 OT

Oct. 31 vs No. 7 North Dakota State, L, 35-29

Nov. 7 at South Dakota, L, 34-31

Nov. 14 vs No. 6 Illinois State, L, 42-21

Nov. 21 at No. 15 UNI

OFFENSIVE OUTLOOK

Before this win streak for UNI, what SIU's season has become is what the Panthers looked headed for. Several close losses, games in which the Salukis had good chances to win and didn't get it done. It's not been for lack of success on offense, though.

SIU lines up in a spread, led by quarterback Mark Iannotti, who is good of a passer that can be found in the MVFC. He and the Salukis use creativity and multiple formations within the spread to keep defenses reactive instead of proactive. They use play action effectively, something UNI Coach Mark Farley addressed at his press luncheon on Monday. SIU works quickly, and once in rhythm, refuse to let off the gas pedal.

The Salukis lead the MVFC in six different categories: scoring offense at 36.9 points per game, total offense at 501.1 yards per game, passing offense at 301.9 yards per game, first downs at 25.5 per game, fourth down conversions (11 of 17, 64.7 percent) and run the most plays per game on offense at 80.9 per game. There's no offensive category in which SIU is below fifth, and has put up both points and big yardage on the league's best defenses.

It'll be UNI's toughest test in an offense since facing Eastern Washington on Sept. 12, and will be a tough act to keep up with for Aaron Bailey and Co.

From Hefferman on Southern Illinois' offensive outlook:

'Southern Illinois could get two of its best offensive players back this week at Northern Iowa, but, with or without them, the Salukis have pretty much the same game plan.

'Run quarterback Mark Iannotti in between the tackles, distributes the football to playmakers like Daquan Isom, Jimmy Jones and Billy Reed, and let Iannotti determine how to do it. Iannotti has already set the school's single-season total offense record and is averaging four yards a carry with nine rushing touchdowns. He's a fullback in a quarterback's body but can chuck it with the best of them.

Isom is SIU's best big-play threat, either out of the backfield or as a receiver. Reed is the team's best pure receiver and one of its best perimeter blockers. Look for SIU to attempt to stretch Northern Iowa's run defense in the middle of the field with Iannotti and on the sidelines with some wide receiver screen passes.'

DEFENSIVE OUTLOOK

As good as the Salukis' offense has been this season, the defense just has not lived up to what the other side of the ball has produced.

SIU, per typical MVFC, lines up in a 4-3 defensive scheme, and relies on its linebackers and defensive secondary to do the bulk of the work. The Salukis have faced every kind of look an opposing offense has been able to throw out there, and has been beat by both, too. Whether through the air or on the ground, SIU has allowed 70 'explosive' plays of 20 yards or more. It's been primarily in the run game where SIU has given up the most explosive games. Western Illinois and Youngstown State each had big days through the air, but Indiana State, North Dakota State and Illinois State put up 327, 397 and 372 yards rushing respectively. The Salukis rank only ahead of Missouri State in total defense (465.1 yards per game), rush defense (232.9 per game) and pass defense (232.2 per game).

To coincide with so many explosive plays and a ton of yards, SIU also isn't forcing turnovers or getting to the quarterback effectively or very consistently. The Salukis have 17 sacks as a team, putting them middle of the road in the MVFC, and are the league's worst in turnover margin at minus-10 — forcing just nine fumbles and five interceptions all season.

From Hefferman on Southern Illinois' defensive outlook:

'SIU's defensive focus is on making Northern Iowa quarterback Aaron Bailey beat the Salukis through the air and not on the ground. They were unsuccessful doing that against Illinois State's Tre Roberson — the Redbirds won with only four completed passes — but the Panthers don't have Marshaun Coprich in the backfield to deal with, either.

'While the offense has 65 explosive plays — 20 yards or more or kickoff returns 35 yards or more — the defense has allowed an astounding 70 of them. The Salukis hope to limit Northern Iowa's run game and make the Panthers at least use a lot of plays to score points.'

KEY PLAYERS

Mark Iannotti, QB — It's hard to look past a player who's averaging just shy of 300 yards per game through the air, is the team's leading rusher and leads the MVFC in total offense individually. The senior has thrown for 2,931 yards at 66 percent completion, has 22 touchdowns and 10 interceptions in 10 games this season. He has 656 yards rushing, and doesn't get sacked a ton — just 11 times this season.

Chase Allen, LB — He's the defensive leader, without a doubt, and is third in the MVFC in tackles with 113. The SIU defense had definite trouble against Illinois State last week, which is an offense UNI hopes to mirror (run-first QB, rush offense-focused), and Allen is once again the man who has to spy the QB and make sure he's contained. That's no small task against Aaron Bailey, who is third in the MVFC in rushing.

Hefferman on Southern Illinois' key players:

'QB Mark Iannotti — He's tough, he has a strong arm, but he's also very turnover-prone. SIU's offensive success hinge on his successes and him not turning the ball over on the road against an already tough defense.

'RB Daquan Isom — The freshman from Orlando is only 5-foot-8, but can break tackles and break away from tacklers. He'll be itching to make something positive of the season after missing the last two games because of a suspension.

'ILB Chase Allen — SIU's top tackler will play a big role in trying to limit Bailey's quarterback runs. If safety Kenny James can't go, the pressure goes up on Allen.

PREDICTION

Ultimately this game comes down to those explosive plays. Whichever team's defense can limit the other's offense from big chunks of yardage should be able to control the game. SIU's offense is without a doubt bona fide, but with the rate at which it turns the ball over combined with how much the defense has leaked does not fall in the Salukis' favor. The Panthers are playing for the postseason and have found tremendous success in the last several games on the ground. Given how many yards SIU has given up in that area recently, there's little reason to expect anything different. It won't look like the South Dakota State game, but expect another close one. Northern Iowa 31, Southern Illinois 24.

From Hefferman:

'I predict a Northern Iowa victory, 28-21. SIU has played the Panthers well under coach Dale Lennon, even on the road, but the year has been a huge disappointment and Northern Iowa has much more to play for.

'The Panthers know if they win the game they'll be in the playoffs, and SIU's defense has been prone to giving up the big play all season. Northern Iowa has the players to produce a few of them. The game will be closer than most think but end like almost all the others have for SIU — just out of reach.'

l Comments: (319) 368-8884; jeremiah.davis@thegazette.com