UNI football opponent breakdown: South Dakota State

There's no respite for the Northern Iowa football team. Riding a three-game losing streak and staring at a postseason elimination, the Panthers head to Brookings, S.D., to face a team with a win against a Big 12 team and back-to-back wins against top-25 conference opponents. No. 6 South Dakota State has played very well throughout this season, with the Jackrabbits' only loss coming at home to then-No. 2 North Dakota State. They may have lost current Detroit Lions running back Zach Zenner, but the offense has lost no ground — and might've even gotten better.

UNI goes back on the road again, and SDSU (5-1, 2-1 MVFC) benefits from its fifth home game in the first seven weeks. The Panthers (2-4, 0-3) are in desperation mode, for certain, but are facing a team with eyes on a possible MVFC title.

Each week we'll have the Panthers' opponents schedule and results, its offensive and defensive outlook, highlight key players and offer a prediction with the help of a beat writer for the opposing team. This week it's Matt Zommer, who covers South Dakota State for the Argus-Leader in Sioux Falls.

SOUTH DAKOTA STATE SCHEDULE/RESULTS

Sept. 5 at Kansas, W, 41-38

Sept. 12 vs Southern Utah, W, 55-10

Sept. 26 vs Robert Morris, W, 34-10

Oct. 3 vs No. 2 North Dakota State, L, 28-7

Oct. 10 vs No. 19/21 Indiana State, W, 24/7

Oct. 17 at No. 11/12 Youngstown State, W, 38-8

Oct. 24 vs No. 22/25 UNI

Oct. 31 at Missouri State

Nov. 7 vs No. 3/4 Illinois State

Nov. 14 at South Dakota

Nov. 21 at No. 20/23 Western Illinois

OFFENSIVE OUTLOOK

South Dakota State does run some spread — like nearly every college football team in existence — but primarily lines up in two tight end sets that have traditionally set up a power running game. There's still some of what helped Zenner to be so successful left over, but the Jackrabbits have transformed themselves into a potent passing attack. Based around standout wide receiver Jake Wieneke, the offense averages 427 yards per game, and has gone beyond the 400-yard mark in four of the six games — twice topping 500 yards of offense. The Jackrabbits excelled passing primarily in the early part of the season, when starter Zach Lujan was still healthy and making consistent connections with Wieneke. After Lujan went down, the SDSU coaching staff adjusted its play-calling, and the run game has compensated.

What SDSU does, it does consistently and efficiently. The Jackrabbits are not forced into mistakes often, with four fumbles all season, but none lost, and just two interceptions all season — both from Lujan in a dominating win against Robert Morris. On top of taking care of the ball, they control the clock and wear down opponents. Apart from a minus-four rushing yard performance against North Dakota State, SDSU has averaged 175.2 yards on the ground per game. Being able to get a lead with the pass, then finish games with the run has been a recipe for success.

There's going to be a UNI feel to this offense, most likely, this week, because it's possible Lujan returns from injury and both he and Taryn Christion will see time on the field.

From Zimmer on South Dakota State's offensive outlook:

'Offensively, the Jackrabbits have been explosive in every game except their loss to NDSU, but now there's a QB controversy. True freshman Taryn Christion has played very well in place of injured starter Zach Lujan. When Lujan returns, which could be this week, both will play.'

DEFENSIVE OUTLOOK

SDSU lines up in a standard 4-3 defensive scheme, and will throw in a situational blitz. In other words, yet another prototypical MVFC defense.

But what's not prototypical is what the Jackrabbits have been able to do to opponents this season. A stout linebacker corps and defensive backfield power the SDSU defense to holding opposing teams to 343.7 yards of total offense. More specifically, opponents average 175.2 yards on the ground and just 168.5 per game through the air. In the era of spread and no-huddle offenses, holding a team to less than 200 yards passing per game is exceedingly difficult. But the top nine tacklers on the team are either linebackers or in the defensive backfield, and the defense has 18 pass breakups and 23 passes defensed. They also have 10 sacks as a team and 27 tackles for loss. The defense has forced 10 turnovers — five interceptions and five fumbles recovered — and forces opponents into bad decisions through coverage in the defensive secondary.

The Jackrabbits are not above mistakes, though, and when teams have been able to find gaps the Tampa 2-esque zone looks, there's been success. NDSU exploited those well, and even Youngstown State did briefly. They're very sound, though, so finding those gaps has been exceedingly difficult.

From Zimmer on South Dakota State's defensive outlook:

'On defense SDSU has been very consistent. They've held two of their last three opponents under 10 points, and seem to be getting better each week. They're very strong at linebacker and in the secondary, and of late their defensive line has come on after a slow start.'

KEY PLAYERS

Jake Wieneke, WR — The Panthers are no stranger to playing highly-touted and highly-talented receivers, but that doesn't mean facing this guy will be easy by any stretch. No matter who's been under center, he's been outstanding, catching 36 passes for 696 yards and seven touchdowns so far this season, with a long catch of 66 yards. That's 19.3 yards per catch and 116 per game, in case you didn't want to do the math. A talented but somewhat depleted UNI secondary has its work cut out for it.

Jesse Bobbit, LB — Remember those linebackers? He's the ringleader. Scratch that, just leader. Bobbit leads the team in solo and total tackles (his 26 solo tackles would put him fourth on the team overall), he's got 3.5 tackles for loss, a pass breakup and defensed, a forced fumble and fumble recovery. Given UNI's struggles passing and running, a guy like this is a nightmare, given his proclivity for success in coverage and stopping the run.

Zimmer on South Dakota State's key players:

'WR Jake Wieneke is a genuine superstar, and three different SDSU running backs have rushed for 100 yards in a game this season.'

PREDICTION

The calling card for what's led to UNI's struggles this season has been mental mistakes, turnovers and penalties. All three of those things not only will make it hard to win against a sound, consistent team like SDSU, it's a recipe to get blown out — which the Jackrabbits have done in all but one win, the 41-38 win against Kansas.

The Panthers can be desperate and need this as bad as they've ever needed a win, but those two characteristics won't matter if they're called for the same penalties, turn the ball over and miss assignments. UNI succeeds when it forces turnovers and capitalizes, but SDSU just isn't a team that does that with any regularity. Add to that the fact that the Panthers are nursing so many injuries, and it's going to take a huge effort — not dissimilar to the one at NDSU. UNI won't get blown out, but they've not shown the ability to excel offensively and on special teams to overcome what's waiting in Brookings, S.D. South Dakota State 27, Northern Iowa 23.

From Zimmer:

'UNI's desperate situation makes them a scary opponent, but SDSU really seems to be rolling right now. SDSU 28, UNI 20.'

l Comments: (319) 368-8884; jeremiah.davis@thegazette.com