UNI football opponent breakdown: North Dakota State 2.0

As far as rematches go, this is one of the better ones FCS football fans could ask for.

Northern Iowa and North Dakota State have a rivalry that defines this level of football, as well as the Missouri Valley Football Conference, and how they match up will provide what's likely to be as hard-fought an FCS Playoff battle as the championship last year between NDSU and Illinois State.

What the Bison are best at one defense is what the Panthers are best at on offense. What NDSU is best at on offense is what UNI is best at on defense. Buckle up.

Each week we'll have the Panthers' opponents schedule and results, its offensive and defensive outlook, highlight key players and offer a prediction with the help of a beat writer for the opposing team. This week it's Jeff Kolpack, who covers North Dakota State for The Forum in Fargo, N.D.

NORTH DAKOTA STATE SCHEDULE/RESULTS

Aug. 29 at No. 12/13 Montana, L, 38-35

Sept. 12 vs Weber State, W, 41-14

Sept. 19 vs North Dakota, W, 34-9

Oct. 3 at No. 5/7 South Dakota State, W, 28-7

Oct. 10 vs No. 10 UNI, W, 31-28

Oct. 17 vs South Dakota, L, 24-21

Oct. 24 at No. 18/21 Indiana State, W, 28-14

Oct. 31 at Southern Illinois, W, 35-29

Nov. 7 vs Western Illinois, W, 59-7

Nov. 14 at No. 20/21 Youngstown State, W, 27-24

Nov. 21 vs Missouri State, W, 55-0

Dec. 5 vs No. 16/17 Montana, W, 37-6

Dec. 12 vs No. 15/14 UNI

OFFENSIVE OUTLOOK

What exactly the NDSU offense will look like on Saturday is entirely dependent on who plays quarterback for the Bison. A future NFL Draft pick in Carson Wentz went down six games ago with a broken wrist, but reports out of Fargo have the senior on the practice field this week. That significantly alters what NDSU will do in terms of a plan.

The power system the Bison run got even more so when Easton Stick came under center after Wentz went down. In the first six games, with Wentz starting, NDSU attempted 30 passes per game, averaged 242.3 yards passing and 186.2 yards rushing. In the last six games, that dipped to 18 passes per game, 148.7 yards per game passing, while rushing shot up to 302.8 yards per game. While the Bison are up in terms of overall production, they've only faced one team ranked in the top 50 in FCS in total defense in the last six games — against Youngstown State's ninth-ranked defense, in which NDSU was held to its lowest rushing total in that span at 184 yards — compared to facing top 50 defenses in four of the first six games this season.

The line of scrimmage is where this game will be decided regardless of who plays quarterback, though. The NDSU offensive line has been consistent in terms of personnel and performance this season, and maybe even has gotten better as the season has gone on. The UNI defensive line has hit its stride in a seven-game win streak, and the entire unit has held teams to 183 yards passing per game and just 99.7 per game rushing.

If the NDSU offensive line can protect Wentz or pave the way for Stick, the Bison will be in good shape. If the UNI defensive line gets the push it has been recently, either quarterback could be in for a long day.

From Kolpack

on North Dakota State's offensive outlook:

'NDSU has for the last four years won four straight FCS titles because of several factors, a major of one being it's just been better at the line of scrimmage, both on the offensive and defensive lines. Montana found that out last week when the Grizzlies were manhandled to six yards rushing on 19 carries. The only team out there that I believe can match the Bison power is the one coming to the Fargodome on Saturday. UNI has the explosiveness on both sides.'

DEFENSIVE OUTLOOK

NDSU's defense has been stout all season, and that certainly has not changed since the last time these two teams met. The Bison's defensive line is experienced and tenacious, the linebackers are versatile and quick, and the defensive backs protect against the ball as good as any unit UNI has faced.

The middle of the field has been owned in most games by the Bison, and that's where the Panthers' offense has struggled the most. Aaron Bailey throws almost exclusively in the screen game and on long passes; very rarely over the middle. That frees up NDSU to send special run blitzes and delayed blitzes in the passing game.

On the outside, UNI burned NDSU on a few long balls last time out, and it's something the Panthers have tried to work on. The Bison have 12 interceptions as a defense this season, but Bailey has been smart when he has passed in the last seven games.

Unlike what UNI may face depending on NDSU's quarterback, the Bison can obviously expect a heavy dose of the run game, as has been the case throughout the Panthers' run to this point. NDSU is the 11th-best rush defense in the country this season, surrendering just 105.2 yards per game and 3.6 yards per carry to opposing runners. They win the battles up front in most cases, though UNI was able to exploit them a bit in October. The Panthers also have had injuries along the offensive line since then — without Cal Twait and possibly the line's anchor, center Robert Rathje. Stopping UNI starts and ends here.

From Kolpack

on North Dakota State's defensive outlook:

'Certainly, getting a handle on UNI quarterback Aaron Bailey will be a key and nobody has done that in a month. Same for running back Tyvis Smith. To beat NDSU you have to run the ball and the Panthers have proved they can do it in Fargo.'

KEY PLAYERS

Greg Menard, DE

— With the success UNI has in the read-option, as well as straight up run game, sealing the edge is vital — and this guy does it incredibly well. Menard has 13.5 tackles for loss and nine sacks to lead NDSU in both categories. He's the motor of the defensive line, and will be the first line of defense against Bailey and Tyvis Smith.

Easton Stick/Carson Wentz, QBs

— Can't ignore this, as mentioned above. It doesn't matter who plays or what emphasis they bring, as long as whatever it is can be done well. Wentz was forced into his only two interceptions this season against UNI in the last matchup. Stick has taken care of the ball well, but the Panthers have the best turnover margin of teams left playing at plus-15.

PREDICTION

NDSU has won four straight national championships for a reason. They play sound football and are talented in every phase of the game. There's no ignoring, either, that the team seems not to have missed a beat on offense after losing a future NFL player. It's also important to note the FargoDome here, and its significant addition to what the Bison have been able to do. The noise and environment have hosted wins of 59-7 against Western Illinois, 55-0 against Missouri State and 37-6 against Montana the last two times out. Saturday is a reckoning for both teams. These Bison players have not lost in the postseason. These Panther players have something to prove, a fourth quarter from October to avenge, and another possible rematch to chase next week. Northern Iowa 27, North Dakota State 26.

From Kolpack: At some point, title streaks end and this could be the day. UNI 24, NDSU 10.

l Comments: (319) 368-8884; jeremiah.davis@thegazette.com