UNI football bye week breakdown

It's an early-season bye week for the Northern Iowa football team, and depending on who you ask, it comes at a time that could be good or bad. It gives the Panthers (2-1) a chance to assess where they are headed into Missouri Valley Football Conference play and get healthy at the same time. But it also takes them away from the field coming off two wins against ranked opponents — one of which came on the road.

Each week we normally have the Panthers' opponents schedule and results, its offensive and defensive outlook, highlight key players and offer a prediction with the help of a beat writer for the opposing team. But since there's no opponent this week, we'll do the same for UNI and predict the rest of its season.

UNI SCHEDULE/RESULTS

Sept. 5 at Iowa State, L, 31-7

Sept. 12 vs No. 11 Eastern Washington, W, 38-35

Sept. 19 at No. 20 Cal Poly, W, 34-20

Oct. 3 at No. 4 Illinois State, 12 p.m.

Oct. 10 at No. 3 North Dakota State, 1 p.m.

Oct. 17 vs Western Illinois, 4 p.m.

Oct. 24 at No. 6 South Dakota State, 2 p.m.

Oct. 31 vs South Dakota, 1 p.m.

Nov. 7 vs No. 22 Indiana State, 4 p.m.

Nov. 14 at Missouri State, 2 p.m.

Nov. 21 vs Southern Illinois, 4 p.m.

OFFENSIVE OUTLOOK

Three games into the Joe Davis Experiment and the returns are getting better each week. The Panthers were clearly well behind where they needed to be at Iowa State, but the improvements they made from there to where they ended up at Cal Poly are stark.

They've taken care of the ball (two interceptions and one lost fumble) and have seen great returns in the ground game. Sparked by the read option, UNI has averaged 198.7 yards per game rushing, and has used four primary ball-carriers in that effort. To get solid performances out of Aaron Bailey, Darrian Miller, Savon Huggins and Tyvis Smith takes a delicate balance of carries and an open mind from the group. Whatever Davis has done to make them mesh has worked so far. In the passing game, Sawyer Kollmorgen has been the leader, but Bailey has improved. He can help his receivers, but they also need to adjust to his style, be crisp in their routes and catch the football.

What everyone saw in the first three drives at Cal Poly is what UNI can be when it's clicking and flowing on offense. Getting to that point consistently will make this a potent offense.

DEFENSIVE OUTLOOK

Coach Mark Farley has talked at length about how the Panthers have seen the most highly efficient versions of a pass-heavy and run-heavy offense in Eastern Washington and Cal Poly. And while both the Eagles and Mustangs both hit or exceeded their averages (526 passing for EWU and 350 rushing for Cal Poly) at their specialty, UNI stood firm when it needed to in both games.

Two weeks ago it was an interception return for a touchdown, and last week it was the entire first half. Obviously UNI needs to shore up some of the leaks in the rush and pass defense that sprouted in those two games, but the rest of their opponents will be much more balanced in their approach. The front seven has been very good so far, but they need to continue to improve.

KEY PLAYERS

Aaron Bailey, QB

— It seems like low-hanging fruit to pick the quarterback as a key player because, well, quarterback is always key. But what's made him so important for the team — not just the offense — is his ability to improve each week. The combination he and Sawyer Kollmorgen have made was very successful against Eastern Washington, but with every rep he's getting more comfortable on his own. The more comfortable he's gotten, the more well-rounded he's become as a passer and the more he's stepped into a leadership role for the offense. The flow of the up-tempo starts with him.

Brett McMakin, LB

— He's been the best defender overall this season, and sits in the top three of every defensive statistical category for the Panthers. He leads the team with 31 tackles, has 3.5 tackles for loss and one sack so far. But it's his field awareness and what he's done to guide the defense through two weeks of such starkly different opponents that stands out. Just a junior, he's likely not even realized his full leadership potential. Coach Mark Farley talks about being in the right place and having discipline defensively, and McMakin is the epitome of that. He does his job consistently and hasn't been caught in a mistake much this season.

PREDICTION

It's hard to overstate just what's ahead of UNI in the first two weeks after the bye. Two straight road games await against two of the best teams in FCS and in one of the toughest environments in college football (not just FCS). If the Panthers want a shot at the MVFC championship, a win at either Illinois State or North Dakota State will be necessary. Losing both might not ruin a shot at the FCS Playoffs given how good they are, but it certainly won't help.

Beyond those two games, the toughest tests will come on the road at South Dakota State and at home against Indiana State. If UNI can come out of the brutal conference openers healthy and still playing well, the final six games are more than winnable. Given what we know now about UNI's talent and capabilities, games against Western Illinois, South Dakota, Missouri State and Southern Illinois should be winners. That leaves toss-ups for Illinois State, North Dakota State, South Dakota State and Indiana State.

Final record: 8-3. The Panthers will likely go 1-2 against the Cardinals, Bison and Jackrabbits in some form and win the rest of the games on their slate. An 8-3 record will be enough to get them back in the FCS Playoffs.

l Comments: (319) 368-8884; jeremiah.davis@thegazette.com