Really B1G (and way too early) look ahead at hoops

IOWA CITY - The Big Ten's so-called down year in college basketball produced seven NCAA tournament teams, two Final Four squads and a second-place finish for Wisconsin. Next year, an influx of talent along with several retentions gives the league has a chance be stronger on the court and in perception.

Within the last week Purdue center A.J. Hammons and Michigan guard Caris LeVert both announced they will return for their senior seasons. Indiana guard Yogi Ferrell makes his NBA decision this week. If Ferrell returns, the league could have veteran star power to match its raucous environments.

'Pretty seismic shifts with Hammons, (Maryland guard Melo) Trimble, LeVert and with Yogi, probably (coming back),” BTN basketball analyst Jess Settles said. 'With that group of guys coming back, that obviously keeps those three or four teams at the top. Then throw in the fact that Michigan State and Maryland have signed a couple of beasts, freshmen, with what they have coming back. The top of the league once again is going to be really, really good with two or three teams Final Four capable.”

Defending league Wisconsin (36-4, 16-2) lost nearly 72 percent of its scoring with consensus national player of the year Frank Kaminsky, Josh Gasser, Duje Dukan and Traevon Jackson graduating and junior Sam Dekker declaring for the NBA draft. The Badgers return two starters in sophomores Nigel Hayes (forward) and guard Bronson Koenig. Those two don't offset the losses, but they are talented enough to keep the Badgers near the top, Settles said.

'I think they're pretty much guaranteed to be in the top five,” he said. 'That's their history, right? They've never been below four in the Bo Ryan era. I think Nigel Hayes is a player of the year candidate. His skill set is really amazing. Then you look at Bronson Koenig, he could become a first-team all-league type of guard.”

The Badgers dropped a 68-63 heartbreaker to Duke in the NCAA title game, a loss that will serve as motivation, Hayes said.

'It will definitely spill over, but that's what you need though,” Hayes said. 'This is like one of those things that will be the reason when you start workouts, the reason why you'll wake up in the morning and feel like you don't want to get up. You'll just think back and remember ... ‘Did we win or lose the national championship?'”

While Wisconsin entered last season as the clear favorite, next year's race looks muddied at the top. Maryland, (28-7, 14-4) which finished second, returns first-team all-Big Ten point guard Melo Trimble, third-team forward Jake Layman and 59 percent of its scoring. Plus, the Terrapins added Rivals' five-star center Diamond Stone (6-foot-10). Maryland's primary loss was guard Dez Wells, a first-team all-league pick who averaged 15.1 points a game.

Michigan State (27-12, 12-6) reached the Final Four partly because of strong tournament play from departing seniors Travis Trice and Branden Dawson. But those are the only losses for the Spartans, who recruited a pair of five-star players in center Caleb Swanigan (6-8) and forward Deyonta Davis (6-9).

Purdue (21-13, 12-6) bounced back from a last-place performance to tie for third. Retaining Hammons with a core that includes league defensive player of the year Raphael Davis, keeps the Boilermakers near the top, provided they find a replacement for point guard Jon Octeus.

Iowa (22-12, 12-6) returns four of five starters for a team that won an NCAA tournament game. Indiana (20-14, 9-9) brings back 93 percent of its scoring. Michigan (16-16, 8-10) dipped last year with several injuries, but should contend with LeVert back healthy. Ohio State (24-11, 11-7) lost 67.2 percent of its scoring - and possibly the nation's best scoring guard in D'Angelo Russell - but brings in Rivals' five-star guard Jaquan Lyle and four other four-star recruits.

Throw in an ascending Northwestern, a revamped Illinois squad and other rebuilding teams, and the Big Ten has a chance to meet or exceed its seven NCAA tournament squads from last year.

As impactful as the league's returnees next year will be the schedule. While Wisconsin was the unanimous favorite last year, that's not the case this year. With 14 teams and 18 games, teams play five opponents twice and eight opponents once. When, where and how often teams meet will impact the title chase.

'This is a huge part of the story that's not being talked about enough,” Settles. 'This year is the first year where the schedule literally is going to play a significant outcome in the conference championship. There's four or five teams at the top that are basically equal.”

With just a modicum of improvement across the board, the teams that survive the 18-game grind can put themselves in position to contend at a national level.

'I know the Big Ten got knocked throughout the year, but with two teams (in the Final Four) ...” Wisconsin associate head coach Greg Gard said. 'Last year we could have had three. We had three in the Elite Eight. When you come battle through our league and have to play the places you have to play in against the coaches and the players you play against (and) you get to this point, you're ready in March and April.”

LOOKING BACK/LOOKING AHEAD

WISCONSIN (36-4, 16-2)

Season finish: Advanced to NCAA title game

Starters returning/lost: 2/3

Key returnees: F Nigel Hayes (12.4 ppg, 6.2 rpg), G Bronson Koenig (8.7 ppg, 2.5 apg), G Zak Showalter (2.1 ppg 1,3. rpg), F Vitto Brown (1.8 ppg, 1.3 rpg)

Key losses: C Frank Kaminsky, F Sam Dekker, G Josh Gasser, G Traevon Jackson, F Duje Dukan

Key newcomers: G Brevin Pritzl (4 stars by Rivals), F Alex Illikainen (3), F Khalil Iverson (3), F Charlie Thomas (3)

Returning scoring percentage: 28.2

B1G double-plays: Illinois, Indiana, Maryland, Michigan State, Purdue

B1G single-plays (home): Michigan, Nebraska, Ohio State, Rutgers

B1G single-plays (road): Iowa, Minnesota, Northwestern, Penn State

Outlook: Wisconsin won't fall apart but it lost a major chunk of its NCAA runner-up squad. Hayes and Koenig are among the Big Ten's best 15 players, but replacing the national player of the year in Kaminsky, the NCAA tournament's star in Dekker and veteran backcourt players Jackson and Gasser will be an enormous challenge for Coach Bo Ryan.

MARYLAND (28-7, 14-4)

Season finish: Advanced to NCAA third round

Starters returning/lost: 3/2

Key returnees: G Melo Trimble (16.2 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 3.0 apg), F Jake Layman (12.5 ppg, 5.8 rpg), F Jared Nickens (6.1 ppg, 1.4 rpg), G Dion Wiley (4.1 ppg, 1.5 rpg), C Damonte Dodd (4.0 ppg, 3.8 rpg), C Michal Cekovsky (2.6 ppg, 2.5 rpg)

Key losses: G Dez Wells, G Richaud Pack, F Evan Smotrycz, F Jon Graham

Key newcomers: C Diamond Stone (5), G Jaylen Brantley (3)

Returning scoring percentage: 59 percent

B1G double-plays: Michigan, Northwestern, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin

B1G single-plays (home): Iowa, Illinois, Penn State, Rutgers

B1G single-plays (road): Indiana, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska

Outlook: The league's early favorite with its best returning point guard in Trimble, one of the best wings in Layman and perhaps the best recruit in Stone. The Terrapins have Final Four potential. provided they can adequately replace Wells.

MICHIGAN STATE (27-12, 12-6)

Season finish: Advanced to NCAA Final Four

Starters returning/lost: 3/2

Key returnees: G Denzel Valentine (14.5 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 4.3 apg), G Bryn Forbes (8.5 ppg, 1.4 rpg), C Matt Costello (7.0 ppg, 5.2 rpg), C Gavin Schilling (5.1 ppg, 3.8 rpg), F Marvin Clark Jr. (4.5 ppg, 2.2 rpg), G Javon Bess (2.7 ppg, 2.9 rpg), G Lourawls Nairn Jr. (2.2 ppg, 1.6 rpg), G Alvin Ellis III (1.7 ppg, 0.7 rpg)

Key losses: G Travis Trice, F Branden Dawson

Key newcomers: C Caleb Swanigan (5), F Deyonta Davis (5), G Matt McQuaid (4)

Returning scoring percentage: 61.5 percent

B1G double-plays: Iowa, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers, Wisconsin

B1G single-plays (home): Illinois, Indiana, Nebraska, Maryland

B1G single-plays (road): Michigan, Minnesota, Northwestern, Purdue

Outlook: Michigan State will miss both Trice and Dawson but gaining Swanigan and Davis could offset those losses midway through next season, provided Nairn takes the next step at point guard. There's enough of a core remaining from a Final Four squad to lift the Spartans into the preseason top 10.

PURDUE (21-13, 12-6)

Season finish: Advanced to NCAA second round

Starters returning/lost: 4/1

Key returnees: C A.J. Hammons (11.9 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 2.8 bpg), C Isaac Haas (7.6 ppg, 4.1 rpg), G Raphael Davis (10.7 ppg, 4.4 rpg), F Vince Edwards (8.8 ppg, 4.8 rpg), G Kendall Stephens (8.7 ppg, 2.3 rpg), G Dakota Mathias (4.8 ppg, 2.1 rpg), F Basil Smotherman (2.7 ppg, 1.8 rpg), G P.J. Thompson (2.4 ppg, 0.9 rpg)

Key losses: G Jon Octeus, G Bryson Scott (transfer)

Key newcomers: G Ryan Cline (3), G Grant Weatherford (3)

Returning scoring percentage: 81.2 percent

B1G double-plays: Iowa, Maryland, Michigan, Nebraska, Wisconsin

B1G single-plays (home): Michigan State, Northwestern, Ohio State, Penn State

B1G single-plays (road): Illinois, Indiana, Minnesota, Rutgers

Outlook: My how things have changed for the Boilermakers. One year removed from a last-place finish, Purdue will enter next year considered among the league favorites. The big question mark is point guard. Can the Boilermakers land an elite transfer who is immediately eligible? If they can, they should finish among the top four. If not, Purdue still will be among the league's top half.

IOWA (22-12, 12-6)

Season finish: Advanced to NCAA third round

Starters returning/lost: 4/1

Key returnees: F Jarrod Uthoff (12.4 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 1.6 bpg), PG Mike Gesell (7.4 ppg, 1.9 rpg, 4.0 apg), G Peter Jok (7.0 ppg, 2.6 apg), G Anthony Clemmons (4.8 ppg, 1.9 rpg), C Adam Woodbury (6.6 ppg, 5.2 rpg), F Dominique Uhl (2.1 ppg, 1.8 rpg)

Key losses: F Aaron White, C Gabe Olaseni, G Josh Oglesby

Key newcomers: G Isaiah Moss (3), G Christian Williams (3), G Andrew Fleming (3), F Brandon Hutton (3), F Ahmad Wagner (3), F Dale Jones

Returning scoring percentage: 55.3 percent

B1G double-plays: Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Penn State, Purdue

B1G single-plays (home): Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin

B1G single-plays (road): Illinois. Maryland, Ohio State, Rutgers

Outlook: Iowa might be the league's most overlooked squad entering next season. With four starters back off a 12-6 squad, the Hawkeyes have a chance to contend. Replacing Aaron White and Gabe Olaseni will be a major challenge, but Fran McCaffery has always adapted to his losses. Iowa has potential to go either way depending on its newcomers' production.

OHIO STATE (24-11, 11-7)

Season finish: Advanced to NCAA third round

Starters returning/lost: 1/4

Key returnees: G Marc Loving (9.4 ppg, 3.6 rpg), F Jae'Sean Tate (8.8 ppg, 5.0 rpg), G Kam Williams (5.4 ppg. 1.0 rpg), F Keita Bates-Diop (3.8 ppg, 2.1 rpg)

Key losses: G D'Angelo Russell, F Sam Thompson, C Amir Williams, PG Shannon Scott, F Anthony Lee, C Trey McDonald

Key newcomers: G Jaquan Lyle (5), C Daniel Giddens (4), G A.J. Harris (4), F Mickey Mitchell (4), G Austin Grandstaff (4)

Returning scoring percentage: 32.8 percent

B1G double-plays: Illinois, Maryland, Michigan State, Northwestern, Rutgers

B1G single-plays (home): Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Penn State

B1G single-plays (road): Indiana, Nebraska, Purdue, Wisconsin

Outlook: The Buckeyes sustained heavy losses, including the league's best guard (Russell) and three veteran starters in Thompson, Williams and Scott. Lyle has a chance to be a special player, but Ohio State's hopes rest with its entire talented freshman class. If it can gel quickly, the Buckeyes might not drop off. But if the freshmen struggle, it might be a down year.

INDIANA (20-14, 9-9)

Season finish: Advanced to NCAA second round

Starters returning/lost: 5/0

Key returnees: G Yogi Ferrell (16.3 ppg, 4.9 apg, 3.2 rpg), G James Blackmon Jr. (15.7 ppg, 5.3 rpg), F Troy Williams (13.0 ppg, 7.4 rpg), G Robert Johnson (8.9 ppg, 2.9 rpg), C Hanner Mosquera-Perea (6.5 ppg, 4.3 rpg), G Nick Zeisloft (6.6 ppg, 2.2 rpg), F Emmitt Holt (3.6 ppg, 3.1 rpg), F Collin Hartman (4.8 ppg, 3.1 rpg)

Key losses: G Stanford Robinson (transfer)

Key newcomers: C Thomas Bryant (4), F Juwan Morgan (4), F O.G. Anunoby (3)

Returning scoring percentage: 93.0 percent

B1G double-plays: Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin

B1G single-plays (home): Maryland, Northwestern, Ohio State, Purdue

B1G single-plays (road): Michigan, Michigan State, Penn State, Rutgers

Outlook: Indiana returns the most talent of any team in the Big Ten (provided Ferrell comes back), but with that same talent it lost five of its final six games. Can one more year develop Blackmon and Williams into elite college players? Will Bryant fill the void at center? Will the Hoosiers play defense this year? If those answers are yes, Indiana should win the Big Ten. If not, then Tom Crean is on the nation's hottest seat.

ILLINOIS (19-14, 9-9)

Season finish: Advanced to NIT first round

Starters returning/lost: 2/3

Key returnees: G Malcolm Hill (14.4 ppg, 4.8 rpg), G Kendrick Nunn (11.1 ppg, 3.5 rpg), G Jaylon Tate (3.6 ppg, 1.2 rpg), F Leron Black (5.0 ppg, 4.3 rpg), C Maverick Morgan (2.5 ppg, 1.5 rpg)

Key losses: G Rayvonte Rice, G Ahmad Starks, G Aaron Cosby (left program), C Nnanna Egwu

Key newcomers: G Aaron Jordan (4), F D.J. Williams (4), G Jalen Coleman-Lands (4), F Darius Paul (3); G Alex Austin (transfer from Eastern Illinois now eligible), C Mike Thorne Jr. (graduate transfer from Charlotte)

Returning scoring percentage: 41.8 percent

B1G double-plays: Indiana, Minnesota, Ohio State, Rutgers, Wisconsin

B1G single-plays (home): Iowa, Michigan, Nebraska, Purdue

B1G single-plays (road): Maryland, Michigan State, Northwestern, Penn State

Outlook: Illinois has capable scorers in Hill and Nunn but the freshmen must step forward quickly or it's another NIT-type season. Losing Rice hurts but it might allow Hill to develop. The Illini have no answer for Egwu's departure. Coach John Groce's future might be at stake with how the team performs next year.

MICHIGAN (16-16. 8-10)

Season finish: No postseason

Starters returning/lost: 5/0

Key returnees: G Caris LeVert (14.9 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 3.8 apg), G Zak Irvin (14.3 ppg, 4.8 rpg), G Derrick Walton Jr. (10.7 ppg, 4.7 rpg), G Spike Albrecht (7.5 ppg, 2.3 rpg), G Aubrey Dawkins (7.0 ppg, 2.1 rpg), F Ricky Doyle (6.1 ppg, 3.2 rpg), G Muhammed-Ali Abdur-Rahkman (4.5 ppg, 1.7 rpg), F Kameron Chatman (3.6 ppg, 2.5 rpg), F Mark Donnal (3.6 ppg, 2.5 rpg)

Key losses: F Max Bielfeldt

Key newcomers: F Moritz Wagner (4), G Kyle Ahrens (3)

Returning scoring percentage: 92.1 percent

B1G double-plays: Iowa, Maryland, Minnesota, Penn State, Purdue

B1G single-plays (home): Indiana, Michigan State, Northwestern, Rutgers

B1G single-plays (road): Illinois, Nebraska, Ohio State, Wisconsin

Outlook: Injuries robbed Michigan of a postseason bid this year, and LeVert's return gives the program a major lift. But the Wolverines did struggle in December (remember NJIT and Eastern Michigan?) with LeVert and remain very guard-centered. If at least one post player develops into a consistent threat - Doyle or Wagner - Michigan should return to the NCAA tournament.

MINNESOTA (18-15, 6-12)

Season finish: No postseason

Starters returning/lost: 2/3

Key returnees: G/F Carlos Morris (11.1 ppg, 3.2 rpg), F Joey King (9.7 ppg, 3.0 rpg), G Nate Mason (9.8 ppg, 2.8 apg, 2.8 rpg), F Charles Buggs (3.6 ppg, 2.0 rpg), G Daquein McNeil (3.2 ppg, 3.2 rpg), C Bakary Konate (2.2 ppg, 2.1 rpg)

Key losses: G Andre Hollins, C Maurice Walker, G DeAndre Mathieu, C Elliott Eliason

Key newcomers: G Kevin Dorsey (4), G Dupree McBrayer (3), G Jarvis Johnson (3), F Jonathan Nwankwo (4); C Reggie Lynch (transfer from Illinois State, must sit out)

Returning scoring percentage: 48.8 percent

B1G double-plays: Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Northwestern, Rutgers

B1G single-plays (home): Maryland, Michigan State, Purdue, Wisconsin

B1G single-plays (road): Iowa, Nebraska, Ohio State, Penn State

Outlook: This program is at a crossroads. It had a tough Big Ten schedule with three of its first four on the road, and it never recovered after an 0-5 start. But with talent like Hollins, Mathieu and Walker, Minnesota still should have competed for an NCAA bid. Now with Coach Richard Pitino entering his third year, the Gophers need to show program improvement. It's tough to see that with their returnees.

NORTHWESTERN (15-17, 6-12)

Season finish: No postseason

Starters returning/lost: 5/0

Key returnees: G Tre Demps (12.5 ppg, 3.0 rpg), C Alex Olah (11.7 ppg, 6.9 rpg), G Bryant McIntosh (11.4 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 4.7 apg), F Vic Law (7.0 ppg, 4.8 ppg), F Scottie Lindsay (6.1 ppg, 2.3 rpg), F Sanjay Lumpkin (4.3 ppg, 3.8 rpg), F Nathan Taphorn (4.1 ppg, 1.1 rpg)

Key losses: G JerShon Cobb, G Dave Sobolewski

Key newcomers: F Aaron Falzon (4), G Jordan Ash (3), C Derek Pardon (3)

B1G double-plays: Maryland, Minnesota, Nebraska, Ohio State, Penn State

B1G single-plays (home): Illinois, Michigan State, Rutgers, Wisconsin

B1G single-plays (road): Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Purdue

Outlook: Northwestern has plenty of momentum going forward after winning five of its last seven games. It has a strong nucleus with key players returning at every position. If the talented incoming freshmen contribute quickly, the Wildcats have an outside shot at earning their first NCAA tournament bid. Seriously.

NEBRASKA (13-18, 5-13)

Season finish: No postseason

Starters returning/lost: 2/3

Key returnees: F Shavon Shields (15.4 ppg, 6.0 rpg), G Benny Parker (4.3 ppg, 4.2 rpg), G Tai Webster (3.9 ppg, 1.9 rpg), F Nick Fuller (3.1 ppg, 3.1 rpg)

Key losses: G Terran Petteway, F Walter Pitchford, G Tarin Smith, F David Rivers, F Leslee Smith, C Moses Abraham

Key newcomers: G/F Andrew White (transfer from Kansas), G Glynn Watson (4), F Ed Morrow (4), G Bakari Evelyn (3), F Michael Jacobson (3), F Jack McVeigh (none)

Returning scoring percentage: 36.3 percent

B1G double-plays: Indiana, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers

B1G single-plays (home): Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio State

B1G single-plays (road): Illinois, Iowa, Michigan State, Wisconsin

Outlook: Tim Miles had a magical season in 2013-14 with an NCAA tournament bid and a 14-1 home record. But no Big Ten team underachieved last year like the Cornhuskers. Petteway bolted for the NBA, Pitchford quit and Tarin Smith transferred. Chicagoland preps Watson and Morrow - and Kansas transfer White - must contribute right away alongside Shields to prevent Nebraska from slipping back into its historical doldrums.

PENN STATE (18-16, 4-14)

Season finish: No postseason

Starters returning/lost: 3/2

Key returnees: G Shep Garner (9.2 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 2.3 apg), F Brandon Taylor (9.1 ppg, 5.3 rpg), G Geno Thorpe (8.7 ppg, 2.6 rpg), F Donovan Jack (3.5 ppg, 2.7 rpg), C Jordan Dickerson (2.6 ppg, 3.3 rpg), G Devin Foster (2.7 ppg, 2.0 rpg)

Key losses: G D.J. Newbill, G John Johnson, F Ross Travis

Key newcomers: G Josh Reaves (3), C Mike Watkins (3)

Returning scoring percentage: 49.5

B1G double-plays: Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska, Northwestern

B1G single-plays (home): Illinois, Indiana, Minnesota, Wisconsin

B1G single-plays (road): Maryland, Ohio State, Purdue, Rutgers

Outlook: How is Penn State going to replace Newbill? He was the league's most dynamic scorer for a below-average squad. The Nittany Lions return enough pieces to fight like they always do, but they desperately need a scorer. It's hard to see that right now.

RUTGERS (10-22, 2-16)

Season finish: No postseason

Starters returning/lost: 2/3

Key returnees: G Bishop Daniels (8.4 ppg, 2.1 rpg), C Greg Lewis (5.3 ppg, 4.5 rpg), G Mike Williams (6.3 ppg, 2.2 rpg), F D.J. Foreman (3.8 ppg, 2.7 rpg), C Shaquille Doorson (1.6 ppg, 2.2 rpg)

Key losses: G Myles Mack, F Kadeem Jack, G Justin Etou, G Malick Kone

Key newcomers: G Corey Sanders (4), F Jonathan Laurent (3), F Kejuan Johnson (3), F Justin Goode (none)

Returning scoring percentage: 40 percent

B1G double-plays: Illinois, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Ohio State

B1G single-plays (home): Indiana, Iowa, Penn State, Purdue

B1G single-plays (road): Maryland, Michigan, Northwestern, Wisconsin

Outlook: Rutgers was the league's worst team and lost its two best players. Enough said.

WAY-WAY-TOO-EARLY PROJECTIONS

1. Maryland

2. Michigan State

3. Indiana

4. Purdue

5. Iowa

6. Wisconsin

7. Michigan

8. Ohio State

9. Northwestern

10. Illinois

11. Minnesota

12. Penn State

13. Nebraska

14. Rutgers

l Comments: (319) 339-3169; scott.dochterman@thegazette.com