Prediction: Iowa 8th in first playoff ranking

Forecasting how Tuesday night's initial set of College Football Playoff rankings is folly, but I'll make this prediction:

Iowa will be ranked higher than it is in the Associated Press (10th) or coaches (11th) polls.

Both of those polls are deeply flawed because they are predicated on preseason rankings and past reputations. Ohio State is No. 1, for instance, because it was No. 1 at the end of last year and has yet to lose. Never mind that the Buckeyes have beaten just one team (Penn State) from a Power 5 conference that has a winning record today, while Clemson has defeated three.

Baylor is No. 2 in both polls, but played SMU, Lamar and Rice in nonconference games, and its four Big 12 wins have come over teams with a combined conference record of 4-16.

Let me tap the brakes for a moment and repeat what I wrote Saturday and will continue to stress: Nothing matters for Iowa, playoff-wise, if it doesn't win the rest of its games including the Big Ten championship game. The Hawkeyes know it, we all know it. And getting to 12-0, let alone 13-0, will require some serious accomplishment in November.

This playoff talk on Nov. 2 is just for fun and chatter, and why would we care a bit about sports if not for the fun and chatter?

That said, here's why I think the Hawkeyes will be higher on Tuesday's playoff poll than some might expect:

a) Defeating Pittsburgh, which is 6-2 despite playing five games on the road. Pitt's loss to North Carolina last Thursday dampened things, but the Panthers did what Ohio State did by winning at Virginia Tech, and Pitt did what Florida State did not by winning at Georgia Tech.

b) Winning at Wisconsin, which few teams do. The Badgers are 7-2, and Wisconsin Athletic Director Barry Alvarez is on the playoff's selection committee. Alvarez is a persuasive figure.

c) Whomping Northwestern 40-10 in Evanston. The Wildcats are 6-2. They got whomped by Michigan the week before they were whomped by Iowa, but they're 6-2 and they are the lone team that has beaten Stanford.

d) In the Sagarin Ratings of the schedules teams have played to date, only Clemson and LSU are higher than Iowa when it comes to the 11 unbeaten FBS teams. And they aren't that high, with Clemson 28th, LSU 37th and Iowa 47th. Michigan State is 59th, Ohio State 68th. Baylor is 104th.

I'd pick Clemson No. 1 right now because it gave Notre Dame its only scratch, and has won at Louisville, Miami and North Carolina State. Those three aren't great, but the Tigers went on the road and handled things. And, the win over Notre Dame is as good as any unbeaten team can claim.

After that, who knows? LSU won at Mississippi State (6-2) and beat Florida (7-1) at home, two very good wins. But is good, but is winning at Mississippi State and downing Florida at home clearly better than beating Wisconsin and Northwestern on the road?

Looking at Ohio State and Michigan State, are their resumes to date any better than Iowa's? What's the Buckeyes' best win, Penn State (7-2) at home? Where the Buckeyes have a case is they've come on strong lately, mowing down Penn State and Rutgers after scuffling past several of their first six foes, including Northern Illinois and Indiana.

But Iowa has been strong in its last two games, too, plastering Northwestern, and jumping to a 21-0 lead over Maryland in a 31-15 win.

Michigan State won at Michigan, which looms large though it happened because of the mother of all flukes. Nonetheless, the Spartans won at Michigan. That's big.

But beating Oregon by one score at home isn't as great as it would have been the previous several years, and the Spartans own one-score wins over mediocrities Rutgers and Purdue.

TCU and Baylor have their hardest games ahead of them, and can make convincing arguments for the inclusion in the Top 4 this month. But as of now, have either surpassed Iowa's body of work?

We know Baylor hasn't, though the devastation with which it has carved up teams leaves quite an impression. The Bears have one win over a team that currently has a winning record, and that's 5-4 Texas Tech.

TCU has won at Minnesota, Kansas State and Texas Tech. None are great, but road wins over competitive teams are nothing to dismiss lightly.

Oklahoma State is 8-0, but has yet to encounter TCU, Baylor or Oklahoma. It has two wins over teams with winning marks, and those are 5-4 Central Michigan and 5-4 Texas Tech.

So I think the playoff committee, which supposedly takes a fine-toothed comb to all this stuff in addition to actually watching games, will list Iowa higher than 10th.

But the monkey-wrench is the 1-loss teams. Alabama, Notre Dame, Stanford and Florida will get some serious consideration.

Alabama lost at home to Ole Miss, yes. But the Crimson Tide successfully ran a 4-game SEC gauntlet in October, winning big at Georgia, beating Arkansas at home, winning big at Texas A&M, and edging Tennessee at home.

Notre Dame's lone defeat was at Clemson. No shame there. The Irish have given Navy and Temple their only losses, and beat USC.

Stanford's loss was in Week 1, on the road against Northwestern. Since then it has taken down USC and Washington State on the road, UCLA at home. Those are good wins.

Florida lost by one touchdown at LSU, soundly beat Ole Miss at home, and whipped Georgia last Saturday, 27-3.

I opened this by saying predicting Tuesday's first rankings is folly. So I'll do it, anyway.

1. Clemson, 2. LSU, 3. TCU, 4. Ohio State, 5. Baylor, 6. Alabama, 7. Michigan State, 8. Iowa, 9. Notre Dame, 10. Florida.

By the way, the top four in the first rankings the playoff people released last year was this: 1. Mississippi State, 2. Florida State, 3. Auburn, 4. Mississippi.

Three of those four didn't make the playoff. Ohio State, which did, was 16th in the first ranking.

There's a lot of season left.