Points in Transition: Iowa vs. Minnesota preview

Iowa may finally have gotten its first road win last week at Rutgers, but — with all due respect to the Scarlet Knights — going to The Barn is a bit more of a task than going to Piscataway, N.J., to face the last-place team in the conference. Minnesota, similar to Iowa, has had a mixed bag of a conference season, but Nate Mason, Reggie Lynch and Co. opened as 7.5-point favorites over the Hawkeyes.

For each Big Ten game this season, we'll look at key players, strengths and weaknesses for both teams and the key to winning for both sides. Here's a breakdown of the matchup between Iowa and Minnesota:

Key player

Iowa: Tyler Cook, forward — Cook's first season at Iowa was billed by most — including The Gazette — as something that was supposed to be special. Not that he hasn't been, but his finger injury put a kink in the proverbial hose. He's finally starting to look like the guy he was right before the injury, and the guy he was expected to be. If not for foul trouble, his impact against Nebraska likely would've been even bigger. He's got Reggie Lynch to deal with, though, and that won't be easy.

Minnesota: Nate Mason, guard — How many times have we discussed quick, talented guards being an issue for the Hawkeyes? All of the Points in Transitions, right? OK, not all of them, but a lot of them. Nate Mason is in the vein of opposing guards like Tai Webster, Corey Sanders, Melo Trimble, Scottie Lindsey or Carsen Edwards. Not only does he lead the Gophers in scoring at 14.1 points per game, but his 5.2 assists show he involves his teammates with effectiveness. Drive and kick beware.

Strengths

Iowa: Maybe it's dangerous to touch officiating or fouls, but here goes: in the three-game winning streak, the Hawkeyes have done a good job attacking the paint in a way that will get opposing big men in foul trouble. Whether with frontcourt or backcourt players, Iowa has either fouled out or almost fouled out players from Ohio State, Rutgers and Nebraska.

Against the Buckeyes, center Trevor Thompson — 10.6 points per game in 22.8 minutes per game — fouled out with no points in just 13 minutes. Against the Scarlet Knights, C.J. Gettys — 7.8 points per game in 21.3 minutes per game — finished with four points and four fouls. Against the Huskers, Jordy Tshimanga fouled out, Michael Jacobson had four fouls and Isaiah Roby had four fouls, forcing Tim Miles to go deep into his bench for frontcourt guys.

Taking opposing big men out of the game — literally or figuratively — takes away rim protectors so guards can get to the rim and allows Cook, Cordell Pemsl, Ahmad Wagner, et. al to do their thing with freedom.

Minnesota: Most of what the Gophers have hung their hat on this season has been defensively. The overall numbers back that up, with the 10th-best Adjusted Defense in the nation according to KenPom.com at 0.932 points per possession. Minnesota also is 10th in the nation in opponent effective field goal percentage at 44.4 percent, ranks 13th in opponent 3-point percentage at 30.3 percent and 11th in block percentage at 15.5 percent.

A player like Lynch is the lynch-pin (sorry, bad pun, couldn't help it) to the last number. Iowa Coach Fran McCaffery talked about that being a real issue for opposing offenses to deal with — and makes the fact that Iowa has gotten opposing big men in foul trouble extremely relevant (and kind of super important).

Mason running the show and distributing the ball is effective, and he gets to lead a solid transition game because of what the defense has created for much of this season.

Weaknesses

Iowa: It's not necessarily a weakness, per se, but more of an unknown: what will happen to the Iowa offense when Peter Jok goes from making a conscious effort to fit into the flow of the offense to returning to being aggressive in finding his shot?

That's not to say the ball always stopped with Jok or that he's selfish with the ball — he averages 2.5 assists and 5.8 rebounds per game, putting him second on the team in both categories. Highlighting his return to what makes him great is just to point out that his teammates were willing participants in that, and at times devolved into deferring to him out of habit as much as anything. Now, with basically three games for them to flourish on their own merit, will they be able to keep that confidence while also following his lead?

The answer to that can only come on the floor, but it's a fair and interesting thing to contemplate. He's shown the ability, even before his absence, to create for his teammates and not be annoyed by it. If he can be aggressive while they're aggressive, that's a tide that will raise all boats.

Minnesota: The Gophers spent one week in the top 25 rankings at No. 24 after beating Purdue, Northwestern (two NCAA Tournament-caliber teams) and Ohio State all in a row. They crashed back down to earth, though, with five straight losses — including both games they played while ranked.

The losing streak didn't appear to have one common thread throughout, rather a few different gremlins that popped up separately and led to both blowout and one-possession losses. In a blowout loss to Michigan State, the effective ball distribution from Mason was non-existent, with just six team assists. Against the Spartans and Penn State, the offensive glass was rough, with the Gophers allowing 11 and 14, respectively. In the last two losses before rebounding for a win against Illinois on Saturday, Minnesota allowed 1.083 points per possession and 1.288 points per possession — far above the season mark.

Against Penn State and Maryland, Minnesota had leads early and throughout, only to lose late. It's hard to pinpoint a fix when different things are going wrong each night.

Iowa wins if …

the Hawkeyes can limit Mason and the Gopher guards like they did Webster and Co. for Nebraska, while at the same time working inside out to keep shooters open like they have been. Iowa has gotten off to solid starts and developed a good flow. Keeping that going in a hostile environment is not something the Hawkeyes have shown the ability to do with consistency. They do that, they get a fourth straight win.

Minnesota wins if …

Mason does his thing scoring and distributing, and Lynch, Jordan Murphy and the other big men stay out of foul trouble. The Gophers play solid defense, despite some recent numbers and play really well at Williams Arena (The Barn) thanks to a tremendous home court advantage. Minnesota got 31 and 11 out of Mason last time out. It won't take quite that, but a performance in that vein will give Iowa fits.

l Comments: (319) 368-8884; jeremiah.davis@thegazette.com