Points in Transition: Iowa vs. Michigan preview

Apart from a March trip to the Kohl Center and Wisconsin, Wednesday night might be the toughest test the Iowa men's basketball team might face the rest of the regular season. Purdue has deep-tournament-run potential and Mackey Arena is as difficult a place to play as anywhere in the nation.

Coming home, then, should be a big help to the Hawkeyes, who clearly still are finding their sea legs as a young team.

For each Big Ten game this season, we'll look at key players, strengths and weaknesses for both teams and the key to winning for both sides. Here's a breakdown of the matchup between Iowa and Michigan:

Key player

Iowa:

Cordell Pemsl, forward — It's a tough ask, guarding Isaac Haas and/or Caleb Swanigan in your first Big Ten game. It's a tougher ask when you've got two or three fouls. Purdue's duo make up perhaps the best frontcourt in the Big Ten, but it's not like things get markedly easier. Pemsl will have either Moritz Wagner or DJ Wilson as his assignment Sunday. Wagner is used at a higher rate of possessions than any other Wolverine, averages 11.5 points per game and shoots 64 percent. Wilson leads Michigan in rebounding and ranks 89th in the nation individually for defensive rebounding percentage. Pemsl needs to stay on the floor and stay out of foul trouble to give Iowa's guards another outlet.

Michigan:

Zak Irvin, guard/forward — Irvin has vaulted into the role of the lead swingman for a Wolverine team that relies a lot on its wings to create offense and attack the rim. Michigan's scoring leader (14.1 points per game) has been inconsistent at times this year, but when he's on, he provides a potent dimension for the Wolverines' offense. His good nights see him create for his teammates while also finding his shot. His playing in what traditionally is the small forward role forces the hand of opponents. He and Peter Jok likely will have each other, and Irvin's defense can't be ignored either. He's 37th in the nation individually in fouls committed per 40 minutes at 1.5. That's going to give Jok a test.

Strengths

Iowa:

Wednesday night didn't offer a ton of strength from the Hawkeyes. What Coach Fran McCaffery could take away that he liked was how Nicholas Baer provided his usual spark off the bench and how Tyler Cook eventually settled in after a foul-plagued start.

A lot of what hurt the Hawkeyes were wasted opportunities. Guards got to the rim multiple times in transition and weren't able to convert. Iowa moves quickly off makes and misses by design, and has shown an ability to be effective in it. That's especially key when stops aren't coming on defense. Iowa has been more free-flowing on offense and can score from all parts of the floor, so it has to get back to doing that.

Michigan plays at a slow pace. Iowa has a chance to exploit that if it can develop a rhythm early and play in control.

Michigan:

Michigan may play at a slow pace, but it's done it as efficiently and effectively as anyone in the country through non-conference. The Wolverines head into their first Big Ten game ranked 20th on KenPom in Adjusted Offense (1.142 points per possession), 24th in eFG percentage at 55.8 and 12th in turnover percentage at 15. Michigan rebounds well (56th in offensive rebound percentage), plays solid defense (0.968 ppp) and has the sixth-ranked steal percentage in the nation.

Stats are one thing; how they manifest themselves and against whom is what matters. They rely on their guards/wing players a lot, and guys like Irvin, Derrick Walton and Duncan Robinson — who collectively shoot just shy of 40 percent from 3-point range. Even their frontcourt shoots well — Wagner and Wilson shoot a combined 43.6 percent from deep.

It's a multitalented group that can succeed in several ways — all ways Iowa got burned by against Purdue.

Weaknesses

Iowa:

Anticipate, don't react.

That's been the goal for McCaffery in terms of what the Iowa defense needs more than anything else. That was on display in the worst way when the Hawkeyes were in zone against Purdue. When you're a full step behind in zone, there's always something open. Iowa isn't going to go away from zone defense any time soon — McCaffery said Friday they'll continue to play a mix — so being able to recognize actions and get to spots in or ahead of time will be necessary.

The Hawkeyes still are learning. They're still growing into things. That won't change overnight. There will be more moments where the defense lapses. Minimizing the number of those lapses will have the biggest effect.

Michigan:

Headed into conference play, Michigan hasn't struggled a lot as a team. The Wolverines played five top-50 KenPom teams, and also beat Texas, which ranks 77th. The aforementioned positives are clear when looking at it on paper, but it remains unclear if that's all Michigan is — good on paper. Of those five top-50 matchups, the wins came against Marquette and SMU, with big losses to South Carolina and UCLA, and a close loss to Virginia Tech.

In terms on the floor, it appears there are a few areas in which they've struggled more than others. Opponents shoot 37.9 percent from 3, which ranks Michigan 279th defensively. The Wolverines also rank 259th in free throw rate, meaning they've not put themselves on the line at a rate that can assuredly close out games. Michigan's road to potential legitimacy starts Sunday against Iowa, which has won four straight in this series.

Iowa wins if …

it can force Michigan to play at a pace it isn't comfortable with, while capitalizing on opportunities to run. In Iowa's biggest losses, the Hawkeyes have coupled multiple possessions without getting stops with empty offensive possessions. If they can get Michigan uncomfortable, the Hawkeyes have to take advantage.

Michigan wins if …

Iowa's defense plays like it did against Purdue and shooters aren't located. The Boilermakers might've cooled off upon an Iowa adjustment in the second half, but the Hawkeyes had to make the adjustment in the first place. The Wolverines are out to prove themselves as legitimate Big Ten contenders, and guard play will be the key piece to carry them there. If they get what they have so far, they'll break the four-game losing streak.

l Comments: (319) 368-8884; jeremiah.davis@thegazette.com