Points in Transition: Iowa vs. Illinois preview

The Iowa men's basketball team heads to the State Farm Center in Champaign, Ill. off six days of rest and prep for Illinois. It came at a good time health-wise, but also to be able to regroup collectively execution-wise. Coach Fran McCaffery said Monday his lineup could change, so that very well could affect what the Hawkeyes do or don't do well while chasing their first true road win of the season.

For each Big Ten game this season, we'll look at key players, strengths and weaknesses for both teams and the key to winning for both sides. Here's a breakdown of the matchup between Iowa and Illinois:

Key player

Iowa: Nicholas Baer, guard/forward — If McCaffery does make a change to the starting lineup, Baer is a prime candidate to move back into that role. Yes, McCaffery loves the spark Baer brings off the bench, but he liked that in Anthony Clemmons, too, and moved him up anyway. Sometimes the player makes that necessary. Baer fits that so far, and will be key Wednesday night against the Illini.

Illinois: Malcolm Hill, guard — Remember this entry ahead of the Maryland game in which it was pointed out Iowa has trouble with quick guards who can score? Well, Ctrl + C and Ctrl + V that here. Hill carries the load for the Illini at 17.8 points per game, gets to the line at a high rate (his free throw rate on KenPom is 55.0 and his fouls drawn per 40 minutes is 6.8). Once again, containing him and marking him will be priority No. 1 for Peter Jok and Co.

Strengths

Iowa: Rebounding numbers may not have changed a ton in terms of season statistics — Iowa ranks 130th on KenPom in offensive rebounding percentage and 230th in opponent offensive rebounding percentage — but the Hawkeyes have made strides on the glass recently. Iowa has outrebounded two of its last three opponents, and grabbed 20 offensive rebounds on Thursday against Maryland.

That plus 21 Terrapin turnovers — many of which were self-inflicted — were the primary reasons Iowa even had a chance to come back in that game. Nineteen second-chance points and 30 points off turnovers meant the Hawkeyes cashed in on a lot of opportunities.

If Tyler Cook and Cordell Pemsl, plus Ahmad Wagner (six rebounds against Maryland) and Baer (five boards against Maryland, 10 against Purdue) are cleaning up the glass, Iowa's margin for error grows.

Illinois: Iowa may have made strides on the glass, but they'll meet a defense in the Illini that doesn't allow opposing teams to take advantage of second-chance opportunities very often.

Illinois ranks 33rd on KenPom in opponent offensive rebounding percentage at 25.4 percent. That number is even better when just looking at conference games. Opponents have grabbed 52 offensive rebounds out of 224 total rebounds in Big Ten play for 23.2 percent. That would rank Illinois somewhere around the top 10 in the nation.

Keeping teams off the glass on one end coincides with Hill and center Maverick Morgan running a solid inside-outside game at the other end. Illinois has solid balance offensively, even if Hill does the bulk of the scoring. Hill, Morgan, Leron Black and Mike Thome all have a 20.1 or higher rate of possessions used. Being able to score in multiple ways hurt Iowa against Purdue — especially the first time — and could again Wednesday.

Weaknesses

Iowa: Locating shooters with consistency; crashing to help on drives consistently; rotating in zone consistently. Basically — for approximately the 1,000th time this season — the Hawkeyes aren't consistent enough on defense.

Iowa has had bad enough defensive performances this season that the overall stats don't reflect the best the Hawkeyes' defense has been. At its peak — especially in the zone trap — Iowa has been able to get steals, pressure teams into throwing the ball away and has met opponents at the rim. The issue is that hasn't happened enough in the key moments of close games.

Melo Trimble got what he wanted in money time Thursday. Defensive principles that showed more consistency before Northwestern have regressed since — especially in the late stages when possessions feel more crucial.

Illinois: The Illini defense was good in non-conference, and because of that Illinois got a few good wins — North Carolina State, VCU and BYU the most notable. But since conference play started, that defense has only gotten progressively shakier.

The Illini have an experience group, too, which makes the fact that they went from 0.971 points per possession allowed in non-conference games to 1.150 points per possession allowed in conference games only. That's a big shift.

They've lost three straight, and four of their last five — two of which were blowout losses to Indiana and Purdue on the road. Of their five losses, three came while giving up between 84 and 96 points. With Iowa's offensive potential, that regression from non-conference could be beneficial for the Hawkeyes.

Iowa wins if …

the rebounding numbers resemble the Purdue and Maryland games, and if the Hawkeyes can get off to a much better start before the first media timeout. McCaffery's lineup change thoughts are related to two straight 8-0 deficits to start games, so not digging themselves a hole would help tremendously. Also, shooting better than 29 percent would be helpful.

Illinois wins if …

Iowa doesn't find a rhythm early offensively and the Illini don't allow the Hawkeyes to establish a presence on the boards. Illinois has been outrebounded in all five Big Ten losses and won the rebounding battle in both wins. If they change Iowa's recent run of better rebounding, they'll stop a losing streak and join the throng of midlevel Big Ten teams record-wise.

l Comments: (319) 368-8884; jeremiah.davis@thegazette.com