NCAA tournament projections: The race to Omaha

With only 19 days remaining until Selection Sunday. Iowa State and Northern Iowa are jostling for a top-four seed, while Iowa is making a strong case for an NCAA tournament bid.

The NCAA tournament goal for most teams should be to stay away from Kentucky as long as possible. The Wildcats will face some tough opponents at some point, but if you're an 8/9 team (like Iowa), getting out of their region is crucial toward the hope of advancement.

The regular season ends on Saturday for Northern Iowa and March 7 for Iowa and Iowa State. If Iowa State claims at least a share of the Big 12 title, it's a favorite to earn at least a three seed and play two rounds in Omaha. Likewise, if Northern Iowa can beat Wichita State twice more, it has a chance to get there, too. Big 12 leader Kansas remains the favorite for at least one Omaha quadrant.

The NCAA revamped its bracketing principles in August 2013. Much of the changes were enacted because of realignment, now with 14 teams in the Big Ten and SEC and 15 in the ACC. It also would allow for round-of-32 games between Iowa and, say, Iowa State or Northern Iowa.

Here are some key principles in building the bracket:

n The first four teams selected from a conference shall be placed in different regions if they are seeded on the first four lines.

n Teams from the same conference shall not meet before the regional final (Elite Eight) if they played each other three or more times during the regular season and conference tournament.

n Teams from the same conference shall not meet before the regional semifinals (Sweet Sixteen) if they played each other twice during the regular season and conference tournament.

n Teams from the same conference may play each other as early as the third round (round of 32) if they played no more than once during the regular season and conference tournament.

n Any principle can be relaxed if two or more teams from the same conference are among the last four at-large teams selected to the field to participate in the First Four.

Other key notes:

n Teams will remain in or as close to their areas of natural interest as possible.

n Teams seeded on first four lines shall not experience a 'home-crowd disadvantage” in the second round. (Like a 5th-seeded Northern Iowa playing a 12th-seeded Oregon in Portland, for instance)

n Teams cannot play in a facility in which it has played more than three games, not including league tournaments.

n A host institution team cannot play at the same site. (Louisville can't play in Louisville, Ohio State can't play in Columbus)

n Teams can move up or down one or (worst case scenario) two seed lines to meet the bracket principles. (Iowa could move from a 9 to a 10 to avoid playing Wisconsin in round of 32, for instance)

n Rematches of non-conference regular-season games should be avoided in first four or second round. (Iowa could play Northern Iowa, for instance, in round of 32).

Here's a look at how the NCAA tournament could shake out entering Tuesday's action:

CLEVELAND REGION

1. Kentucky vs. 16. Albany-St. Francis winner, Louisville, Ky.

8. Georgetown vs. 9. Purdue, Louisville, Ky.

4. Oklahoma vs. 13. Sam Houston State, Jacksonville, Fla.

5. Wichita State vs. 12. Illinois-Cincinnati winner, Jacksonville, Fla.

3. North Carolina vs. 14. N.C. Central, Jacksonville, Fla.

6. SMU vs. 11. Texas A&M, Jacksonville, Fla.

2. Arizona vs. 15. Eastern Washington, Portland, Ore.

7. West Virginia vs. 10. Iowa, Portland, Ore.

SYRACUSE REGION

1. Virginia vs. 16. Florida Gulf Coast, Charlotte, N.C.

8. Texas vs. 9. Xavier, Charlotte, N.C.

4. Northern Iowa vs. 13. Louisiana Tech, Seattle

5. Arkansas vs. 12. Iona, Seattle

3. Utah vs. 14. William and Mary, Portland, Ore.

6. San Diego State vs. 11. St. John's, Portland, Ore.

2. Kansas vs. 15. North Dakota State, Omaha, Neb.

7. Michigan State vs. 10. Pittsburgh, Omaha, Neb.

HOUSTON REGION

1. Wisconsin vs. 16. Bucknell-Texas Southern, Columbus, Ohio

8. Ole Miss vs. 9. Murray State, Columbus, Ohio

4. Notre Dame vs. 13. Central Michigan, Louisville, Ky.

5. Butler vs. 12. Wofford, Louisville, Ky.

3. Louisville vs. 13. Georgia State, Columbus, Ohio

6. Oklahoma State vs. 11. UMass-Oregon winner, Columbus, Ohio

2. Villanova vs. 15. New Mexico State, Pittsburgh

7. Indiana vs. 10. Temple, Pittsburgh

LOS ANGELES REGION

1. Duke vs. 16. High Point, Charlotte, N.C.

8. Providence vs. 9. Georgia, Charlotte, N.C.

4. Maryland vs. 13. Harvard, Pittsburgh

5. Baylor vs. 12. Dayton, Pittsburgh

3. Iowa State vs. 14. Valparaiso, Omaha, Neb.

6. Virginia Commonwealth vs. 11. N.C. State, Omaha, Neb.

2. Gonzaga vs. 15. UC-Davis, Seattle

7. Ohio State vs. 10. Colorado State, Seattle

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