Iowa-Wisconsin breakdown

RECORDS

Iowa 13-7 (4-3 Big Ten); 5/5 Wisconsin 18-2 (6-1 Big Ten)

TV

11 a.m. ESPN (Bob Wischusen, Dan Dakich)

PREVIOUS MEETING

Wisconsin won 82-50, Jan. 20, in Madison, Wis.; Wisconsin leads all-time series 81-79

LINE

No line

KEY MATCHUP

Sam Dekker vs. Jarrod Uthoff.

Both 6-foot-9 forwards will get their shot at the NBA in 16 months (or four months in Dekker's case), but this battle appears personal to both. In the teams' previous contest, Dekker appeared motivated to go against Uthoff, who left the Badgers for Iowa after red-shirting for one season. Dekker's intensity was evident in a game where he scored 17 points, grabbed eight rebounds, dished two assists, snagged two steals and blocked a shot without a turnover.

Uthoff, who paid his way to Iowa and sat out for one year because of Wisconsin transfer restrictions, scored 12 points, but five were at the very end of non-competitive halves. Uthoff pulled down only two rebounds. Uthoff leads Iowa in 3-pointers with 32, while Dekker ranks second for Wisconsin with 22. Dekker averages 12.7 points and 4.9 rebounds, while Uthoff puts up 11.5 points and 6.4 rebounds.

KEY STATISTICS

SCORING/OPP:

Iowa 69.3/62.8; Wis 73.6/55.1

FG%/OPP FG%:

Iowa 41.6/39.8; Wis 48.8/41.0

3PT%/OPP 3PT%:

Iowa 31.3/31.9; Wis 35.6/34.9

FT%:

Iowa 74.5; Wis 74.2

LIKELY STARTERS

Iowa:

G Mike Gesell (6-2); G Peter Jok (6-6); F Jarrod Uthoff (6-9); F Aaron White (6-9); C Adam Woodbury (7-1)

Wisconsin:

G Bronson Koenig (6-4); G Josh Gasser (6-4); F Sam Dekker (6-9) F Nigel Hayes (6-9); C Frank Kaminsky (7-0)

KEY RESERVES

Iowa

: C Gabe Olaseni (6-10); G Anthony Clemmons (6-2); G Josh Oglesby (6-6); F Dominique Uhl (6-9)

Wisconsin:

G Zak Showalter (6-2); F Duje Dukan (6-10); F Vitto Brown (6-8)

KEY STORYLINES

1. Shooting guards are vital.

It's difficult to single out one possession as the most important in last week's 32-point Wisconsin blowout, but one stands out before the game became non-competitive. With the Badgers up 10-4, center Frank Kaminsky drove the lane and four Iowa defenders collapsed on him. Kaminsky passed to a wide-open Josh Gasser, who buried a 3-pointer. It was Wisconsin's third consecutive trip with a 3-pointer and pushed the Badgers ahead 13-4. Basically, the game was over.

Gasser is maybe the Big Ten's most underrated and efficient player. He's an extension of Bo Ryan on the floor. He's a terrific defender and was named to last year's all-Big Ten defensive team. He's a solid shooter and ranks 12th in 3-point percentage (40.6) among league players. At 7.3 points a game, his points don't tell the whole story. But his 28 assists and only 10 turnovers give you an indication.

'Josh is Captain America. Josh is the hero of our team,” Wisconsin center Frank Kaminsky said. 'I just watched 'American Sniper,” and I see a lot of Chris Kyle in Josh Gasser. Josh is the best. I love Josh. Go Josh. Team Josh. Hashtag team Josh.”

Peter Jok, an Iowa sophomore, has shown plenty of upside. He averages 6.2 points and is the Hawkeyes' best free-throw shooter at 92.6 percent. Jok is long and athletic and has improved considerably on defense. Iowa senior shooting guard Josh Oglesby has many of Gasser's efficient qualities, such as taking care of the ball (35 assists, 12 turnovers). Oglesby is a streaky 3-point shooter, but mostly has struggled at 27.3 percent.

Against Iowa, Gasser scored six points with two assists in 26 minutes. Jok scored seven with one assist in 23 minutes, while Oglesby scored four points with a season-high two turnovers. Whoever gets the upper hand will have great impact in the outcome.

2. Frontcourt battle.

Last week's game was supposed to showcase the Big Ten's top frontcourts. Instead, the Badgers' foursome crushed their Iowa counterparts 54-20 in that battle. Wisconsin's frontcourt doubled-up Iowa on the boards 25-12.

That was a low-level day for Iowa, and the Hawkeyes' center made up for that in a loss at Purdue. Gabe Olaseni had 16 rebounds and nine points against the Boilermakers, while Adam Woodbury scored seven points before fouling out.

Iowa's leading scorer, Aaron White, did a little more work in Friday's practice but remains questionable for Saturday's game. White puts up 15.1 points and 6.6 rebounds and squares off against Wisconsin's Nigel Hayes, who scores 12.4 points and rebounds 6.9 a game.

Kaminsky leads all players entering the game, averaging 17.2 points and 8.2 rebounds. Woodbury and Olaseni's combined numbers (15.3 points, 9.0 rebounds) roughly equal Kaminsky's prowess.

If nothing else, expect a motivated group along Iowa's frontline after last week.

'I feel as though people put certain teams on a higher scale than others. But you have to treat everyone the same,” Olaseni said. 'It doesn't matter if they're on top of the league or the bottom of the league, you have respect everyone. Obviously they're a very good team, but I feel as though our frontcourt didn't do particularly well that night. But we have to have a guy step up this weekend, and we just have to come out with the mindset that we can beat them and we will beat them.”

3. Fouls.

In Big Ten play, Wisconsin has been called for only 83 fouls, by far the lowest in the Big Ten. In fact, Northwestern has the second fewest foul calls with 120 and Iowa is slightly behind at 123. That's a huge disparity with Wisconsin on one side and everybody else on the other.

The Badgers average around 11.9 fouls per Big Ten game, while their opponents pick up 19.3 fouls per game. Those statistics are comparable for Wisconsin at home (8.25 fewer fouls) or on the road (6.4 fewer fouls).

Iowa averages fewer fouls overall than its opponents (123-131) but the numbers alter significantly in Iowa's favor at Carver-Hawkeye Arena (6.0 fewer per game) versus the road (3.5 more per game).

In the teams' previous game at Madison, Iowa was whistled for 16 fouls, while Wisconsin was called for nine. Nobody fouled out for either team. But if Iowa forward Aaron White is limited on the court, that heightens the Hawkeyes' foul concerns.

'You've got to adjust to foul trouble if some guys get in foul trouble because you're a little bit depleted, but it doesn't change anything as far as what you have to do,” Iowa Coach Fran McCaffery said. 'You're still playing the same guys, they're still doing the same things, so Kaminsky is a handful, Hayes is a handful, Dekker is a handful any way you cut it, so whether it's Aaron or Jarrod or Woody, Gabe or Dom or a smaller guy playing Dekker, for example, just got to fight.”

BOTTOM LINE

Every league game is important for both teams, but Iowa has a little more urgency attached to this game. Wisconsin is playing with house money right now. A win pushes the Badgers farther out of reach from the rest of the league. For Iowa, the outcome won't boost Big Ten title hopes to a realistic level or harm their NCAA chances, but dropping three consecutive games would trigger some angst. Plus, after losing by 32 points last week, the last thing Iowa wants to do is get embarrassed at home in front of a sold-out crowd and a nationally televised audience again.

'I see one of the best teams in the country, another Big Ten team,” Iowa guard Mike Gesell said of Wisconsin. 'It's fun to play in those games, and they're a fun team to play against because they're good year in and year out. We seem to match up very well, and it always comes down to the wire whenever we play them, except for the last game.”

For Iowa to win, it needs to execute at both ends of the floor. That likely means defending for long possessions and scoring late in the shot clock. It means getting the Badgers into a little foul trouble and making free throws. Although Iowa has improved slightly from 3-point range, it may mean the shooting guards knocking down a few more from the outside.

The biggest question mark for Iowa is White's status. If he can play and play effectively, there's no reason why Iowa can't win at home. Against the Badgers, the Hawkeyes have won three of the last five at Carver-Hawkeye Arena with one overtime loss. The other was last year's 79-74 Wisconsin triumph, which Iowa led by a point with one minute remaining. If White can play up to par, I think Iowa wins by maybe six points.

But if White can't compete up to his standard, the Hawkeyes need a near-perfect performance to pull the upset. That's asking a lot from this team against a top-five opponent.

PREDICTION: Wisconsin 73, Iowa 71

l Comments: (319) 339-3169; scott.dochterman@thegazette.com