Iowa-Wisconsin breakdown

RECORDS

Iowa 20-6, 11-3 Big Ten; Wisconsin 17-10, 9-5 Big Ten

TV

8:06 p.m. BTN (Kevin Kugler, Shon Morris and Lisa Byington)

LOCATION

Carver-Hawkeye Arena (15,400)

LINE

Iowa by 9.5

SERIES

Wisconsin leads 82-79; Wisconsin has won five straight

PROFILE

Iowa is ranked 8th by both AP and 6th by USA Today/Coaches; Wisconsin is unranked

KEY MATCHUP

Iowa F Jarrod Uthoff vs. Wisconsin F Nigel Hayes. Two of the Big Ten's (and nation's) best forwards frequently will face off against one another. Hayes, a junior, puts up 16.7 points and 5.8 rebounds a game for the Badgers. He also leads Wisconsin in assists, which is rare but important for its methodical offense. Uthoff, a senior, leads Iowa with 18.8 points a game and puts up 19.4 in conference play. Both are long, tenacious players who do multiple things for their teams and both can shoot from the perimeter. It's likely both of these players get their points regardless of the outcome but their match-up nevertheless is a showcase attraction.

KEY STATISTICS

SCORING/OPP: Iowa 80.1/68.7; WIS 69.2/64.4

FG%/OPP FG%: Iowa 46.1/40.9; WIS 42.9/42.7

3PT%/OPP 3PT%: Iowa 39.1/29.9; WIS 35.4/38.7

FT%: Iowa 71.9: WIS 71.0

LIKELY STARTERS

Iowa: G Mike Gesell (6-2; 8.5 ppg, 6.2 apg, 3.3 rpg); G Anthony Clemmons (6-2; 9.0 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 3.7 apg); G Peter Jok (6-6; 15.8 ppg, 3.3 rpg); F Jarrod Uthoff (6-9; 18.8 ppg, 6.5 rpg; 2.9 bpg); C Adam Woodbury (7-1; 8.3 ppg, 7.9 rpg)

Wisconsin: G Bronson Koenig (6-4; 13.4 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 2.3 apg); G Zak Showalter (6-2; 7.7 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 2.3 apg); F Nigel Hayes (6-8; 16.7 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 3.2 apg); F Ethan Happ (6-9; 12.1 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 1.8 spg); F Vitto Brown (6-8; 9.3 ppg, 5.2 rpg)

KEY RESERVES

Iowa: F Dom Uhl (6-9; 6.8 ppg, 3.8 rpg); F Nicholas Baer (6-7; 4.7 ppg, 2.7 rpg); F Ahmad Wagner (6-5, 2.6 ppg, 2.5 rpg); G Brady Ellingson (6-4; 3.0 ppg, 0.7 rpg)

Wisconsin: G Jordan Hill (6-3; 2.9 ppg, 1.3 rpg); Alex Illikainen (6-9; 2.8 ppg, 1.8 rpg); F Charlie Thomas (6-8; 2.7 ppg, 2.2 rpg); G Khalil Iverson (6-5; 2.6 ppg, 2.0 rpg)

WORTH WATCHING

Wisconsin red-shirt freshman Ethan Happ grew up across the Mississippi River just south of the Quad Cities. He was a productive practice player last year but sat out when the Badgers had the interior duo of Frank Kaminsky and Sam Dekker, both of whom were drafted in the NBA's first round. But Happ has become a star for the Badgers, accumulating eight double-doubles this year. That includes a 20-point, 12-rebound performance in a win against Illinois on Sunday. Happ leads the Big Ten in steals by a wide margin with 35 (2.5 per game) in league play. The next closest in numbers is Michigan's Derrick Walton Jr., who has 24.

Happ remains close with fellow Iowa red-shirt freshman and Quad Cities-area alum Nicholas Baer, who attended Bettendorf (Iowa). Their practice time last year has helped them both grow as players without losing eligibility.

'Obviously he was going against Frank Kaminsky and Sam Dekker, and I'm going against Aaron White, three NBA draft picks,' Baer said. 'We both had some great experiences going against great basketball players.'

BOTTOM LINE/PREDICTION

Few teams are as hot as Wisconsin, which has won eight of its last nine after a dreadful 1-4 start to open Big Ten play. Ethan Happ's development has allowed Nigel Hayes to play similarly as last year, where he helped facilitate offense and score when necessary. Bronson Koenig remains a threat from the outside with 64 3-pointers. Vitto Brown was an end-of-the-bench role player last year for the Badgers but has become a solid complementary piece with 9.3 points and 5.2 rebounds in nearly 25 minutes a game. Wisconsin is 11-0 when it scores at least 70 points.

Iowa has performed sluggishly the last three games, losing by four points at Penn State and winning by four against Minnesota. Opponents have pressured Iowa's scoring stars Jarrod Uthoff and Peter Jok and limited Iowa's feared transition game. Iowa needs another consistent scorer to emerge to take some of the pressure away from Uthoff and Jok. It also needs the bench to produce more points after scoring 22 combined in the last four games. While Iowa appeared fatigued last week, it now has had seven days between games.

Wisconsin, conversely, has played in two games since the Hawkeyes' loss at Penn State. The Badgers were blown out at Michigan State (69-57) and overcame a 12-point, second-half deficit to beat Illinois by nine. Wisconsin limits transition with its defense, which ranks first in the Big Ten in allowing just 63.9 points per game.

This is the Big Ten's best under-the-radar rivalry where the teams play at a high intensity level. There are many crossovers among the teams, from the Happ-Baer friendship to Uthoff beginning his career with the Badgers. Wisconsin assistant Gary Close worked under former Iowa Coach Tom Davis for 13 years, and Wisconsin interim coach Greg Gard grew up near the Iowa-Wisconsin border and followed both teams closely.

I expect this game to be fiercely fought. I believe Iowa's extra rest and time for adjustments will be beneficial, as will its home-court advantage.

Prediction: Iowa 75, Wisconsin 68

l Comments: (319) 339-3169; scott.dochterman@thegazette.com