Iowa upgrades non-conference schedule, RPI improves

IOWA CITY — Non-conference basketball scheduling is neither art nor science. Basically, it's math, especially if you want to make the NCAA tournament.

Iowa Coach Fran McCaffery discovered that the hard way three years ago. The Hawkeyes finished the regular season 21-12, including 9-9 in Big Ten play. Their average margin-of-victory in league play was 11.3 points. Only two of their Big Ten losses came by double digits. Iowa's 11-2 non-conference record appeared strong enough to loft it into the NCAA tournament — until you looked more closely at those victories.

The average RPI (Ratings Performance Index) of Iowa's non-conference opponents was 216.5. Only three teams had an RPI better than 118. RPI — a strength-of-schedule component — calculates your wins and losses, your opponents' wins and losses and your opponents' opponents wins and losses. When Iowa suffered perhaps its most difficult defeat in McCaffery's six years with the program — a 59-56 Big Ten Tournament quarterfinal loss to Michigan State — its non-conference RPI cost them an NCAA tournament berth.

McCaffery since has learned from that season. The Big Ten qualified seven teams for the NCAA tournament. Illinois and Minnesota ended league play 8-10, and Iowa finished 2-1 against those teams. But those teams' RPI was much better than the Hawkeyes, and something had to change.

'I think we made a concerted effort to improve the quality of our schedule top to bottom,' McCaffery said. 'Typically, if you're in the Big Ten, it didn't seem to ever matter who you played in the non-conference. You played enough power teams that if you went 9-9, you were in. But that team was 9-9, and we didn't get in. That team finished sixth; they took seven and eight. So maybe that's a one-in-a-million deal. But when you sit down and you listen to intelligent people explain to you that 'OK, you've got to be a little more cognizant of who you're playing,' then you've got to be open-minded and say that's risky, too.'

Iowa has strengthened its non-conference schedule over the last three years. Iowa played eight opponents with an RPI of 275 or worse entering that season. This year, Iowa has only two, and one of them was Drake. In fact, only Drake and Coppin State currently have RPIs worse than 200.

More than half of Iowa's non-conference scheduling is out of McCaffery's hands. The Hawkeyes compete annually in the Big Four Classic (Northern Iowa or Drake), the Big Ten-ACC Challenge (Florida State this year), an exempt tournament (this year the AdvoCare Invitational in Orlando) and against Iowa State. The inaugural Gavitt Games matched Big Ten and Big East opponents for an early-season game, and Iowa participated this year at Marquette.

That left only five home games for Iowa, including Tuesday's opponent, Tennessee Tech. Those five teams are a combined 29-28 and three have winning records. Tennessee Tech is 8-4, while UMKC is 7-4. Western Illinois (7-3) owns a win at Wisconsin. Gardner-Webb (5-7) has lost to Iowa, LSU, Vanderbilt and Tennessee. Coppin State (2-10) was the other opponent.

'Everybody looks at the monster games that you schedule,' McCaffery said. 'If you look at those games, and you can schedule down if you want to, but that's going to hurt your RPI. So I think you recognize the difficulty of your schedule is not only in the power teams but in all the other teams that we faced. What that does is it challenges your team in preparation. It challenges your team. 'OK, their three best players are all perimeter guys. This team's best players are their point guard and two bigs. ...''

How Iowa contends in Big Ten play will affect its bid for a third straight NCAA tournament berth. But its RPI now sits at 35, a solid number approaching Big Ten play. It's also quite a change from three years ago when Iowa's RPI was at 81 and barely missed the NCAA tournament.

'It can be risky, but ultimately it benefits you in two ways,' McCaffery said of upgrading non-conference opponents. 'It's going to help your RPI, and it's going to better prepare you for league play.'

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