Iowa-Penn State breakdown

RECORDS

Iowa 18-10 (9-6 Big Ten); Penn State 15-13 (3-12 Big Ten)

TV

5:05 p.m. ESPNU (Clay Matvik and Sean Harrington)

LOCATION

Bryce Jordan Center, State College, Pa.

LINE

Iowa by 4 1/2

PREVIOUS MEETING

Teams have not played this year; Iowa leads all-time series 26-13

KEY MATCHUP

Everyone vs. D.J. Newbill

. Newbill is the Big Ten scoring leader at 20.8 points a game overall and 19.7 in league play. He has the league's highest-scoring game with 37 against Purdue. Twice he put up 29 points against Wisconsin. In his three previous games against Iowa, Newbill has averaged 22.7 points. He's a handful for any team and that certainly rings true for the Hawkeyes.

As always, Iowa will mix its defenses from man to zone and will double Newbill when it gets the chance. Regular man defense will be effective in small doses but overhelping could cause openings along the perimeter. If Iowa can contain Newbill's ability to make plays for his teammates and hold him under 20, it's a good day for the Hawkeyes.

KEY STATISTICS

SCORING/OPP:

Iowa 69.1/61.5; PSU 66.3/65.3

FG%/OPP FG%:

Iowa 43.5/39.3; PSU 42.3/40.7

3PT%/OPP 3PT%:

Iowa 33.5/31.4; PSU 32.6/32.4

FT%:

Iowa 73.2; PSU 69.1

LIKELY STARTERS

Iowa:

G Mike Gesell (6-2); G Peter Jok (6-6); F Jarrod Uthoff (6-9); F Aaron White (6-9); C Adam Woodbury (7-1)

Penn State:

G Shep Garner (6-1); G Geno Thorpe (6-3); G D.J. Newbill (6-4); F Brandon Taylor (6-6); C Jordan Dickerson (7-1)

KEY RESERVES

Iowa

: C Gabe Olaseni (6-10); G Anthony Clemmons (6-2); G Josh Oglesby (6-6); F Dominique Uhl (6-9)

Penn State:

F Ross Travis (6-6); F Donovan Jack (6-9); G Payton Banks (6-6); C Julian Moore (6-10)

BOTTOM LINE

The Bryce Jordan Center is a beautiful arena but when it is half or mostly empty (often against Iowa), it can lull you to sleep.

Penn State is a dangerous team for multiple reasons. One, it has the league's best scoring guard (although Ohio State's D'Angelo Russell has a case) in Newbill. Not only does Newbill score himself, he creates for other players. He had his worst game by far at Northwestern last week with only three points, so you can bet he wants to get going at home offensively. That's doubly true against a likely NCAA tournament team.

The Nittany Lions are 1-9 in Big Ten games decided by single digits. Their average margin of defeat in those games is six points. They are tough and tenacious but don't have enough consistent scoring threats outside of Newbill to beat good teams. But Penn State will play hard in every game, as they have in every season for Patrick Chambers. Only two years ago the Nittany Lions were 0-14 in league play and then upset Michigan. Those Wolverines were the national runner-up.

Penn State also has good 3-point shooters. The starting backcourt of Brandon Taylor, Shep Garner and Newbill have 46, 45 and 44 3-pointers, respectively. If Iowa clamps down strictly on Newbill, the others can hurt you.

Iowa has every reason to feel confident. The Hawkeyes have won five of their last seven with every victory exceeding an eight-point margin and four were by at least 16 points. The two losses were by five points and one was in overtime. Another win and Iowa will post its first winning Big Ten season since 2007 and its first double-digit winning season since 2006. A 10th win could lock up an NCAA tournament berth for the second consecutive season.

The Hawkeyes still have plenty for which to play. There's seeding advancement in both the league and NCAA tournaments. Iowa also has a quick turnaround to face likely NCAA squad Indiana, a team that has beaten them three straight times. But Iowa's players say their thoughts revolve around staying in the moment and not getting ahead of the task at hand.

'If we start looking ahead, then that's when we get into trouble,” Iowa guard Anthony Clemmons said. 'That's where we got in trouble in the past, worrying about everything else besides the game that's up next. Going into an opponent like we're going into next, and that's Penn State, if you look past them, they can pull out a win. We just try to lock in on Penn State and try to contain Newbill because they're hungry, they always play aggressive, kind of like Illinois.”

PREDICTION:

Iowa 68, Penn State 64

l Comments: (319) 339-3169; scott.dochterman@thegazette.com