Iowa-Minnesota breakdown

1. Backcourt.

Minnesota boasts one of the nation's quickest guard tandems in DeAndre Mathieu and Andre Hollins. They have the Gophers ranked No. 1 in the Big Ten in steals (and second nationally) at 11.2. Individually, Mathieu ranks first, small forward Carlos Morris third, and backup guard Nate Mason fourth in steals.

The Gophers' 3-point shooting is strong (39.7 percent overall) with five players boasting at least 19 3-pointers and all shoot better than 35 percent. Hollins, a senior, has 39 3-pointers (sixth in the Big Ten) at a 40.6 percent clip (14th). Along with his defensive skills, Mathieu is efficient on offense. He's third in assists and fourth in assist-to-turnover ratio. The Gophers rank second in turnover margin (plus-5.4).

Mason is a wild card for the Gophers. Along with his defense, he ranks fifth in 3-point percentage at 45.5.

'They move the ball. They're making open 3s and their speed and quickness enables them to draw help and kick it to people who are open,” Iowa Coach Fran McCaffery said. 'The other thing is they've got multiple people. If you've only got one or two guys who can shoot 3s, teams can lock into them. But they've got so many different people who can shoot 3s, you can't key on one or two of them.”

Iowa's backcourt has struggled to score. In a 12-point win against Nebraska, Iowa's guards scored two baskets. In a loss to Michigan State, they combined for eight. MSU point guard Travis Trice, who earned Big Ten player of the week honors, had eight by himself.

The Hawkeyes are 13th in field-goal percentage and 3-point percentage. Iowa ranks third in steals and five in assists. Junior Mike Gesell, the Big Ten leader in assist-to-turnover ratio last year, ranks fifth this year. Backup shooting guard Josh Oglesby, who has missed his only three shots the last two games, averaged 16.5 points (9 of 16 from 3-point range) in two games against Minnesota last season.

Sophomore Peter Jok moved into the starting lineup for the non-conference finale but averages just 5.7 points on 30.9 percent shooting. He is a terrific free-throw shooter, however, at 95.2 percent. Junior Anthony Clemmons (5.9 ppg) can play two positions off the bench after opening the year at the shooting guard for 12 games.

'They still have got very good talent all around, and they're extremely well coached,” Minnesota Coach Richard Pitino said. 'It's interesting because they've been better on the road for whatever reason. I think they were such an unbelievable offensive team last year, and they've just had some ruts offensively, much like us.”

ADVANTAGE: Minnesota

2. Frontcourt.

Iowa's Aaron White and Jarrod Uthoff combine as one of the Big Ten's top forward tandems. White holds the school record for free throws and averages 15.9 points a game. White ranks ninth in the Big Ten in scoring, third in rebounding, ninth in free-throw percentage and 12th in field-goal percentage. Uthoff was named the Big Ten's player of the week last week, He leads Iowa in 3-pointers and ranks 10th in blocked shots (1.5), sixth in rebounding (6.9) and 28th in scoring (11.4). In his first two Big Ten games, he hit 7 of 14 3-point attempts. Last week against Michigan State he recorded a double-double (12 points, 10 rebounds).

Iowa senior center Gabe Olaseni scored a career high 18 points in a win against Nebraska and followed up with 18 points against Michigan State. He's seventh in Big Ten free-throw percentage at 85.2 and hit 18 in a row before a late miss on Monday. Olaseni (9.6 points per game) also is third in Big Ten blocked shots with 2.0 a game. Fellow center Adam Woodbury averages 6.6 points and 5.4 rebounds a game. He's more physical than Olaseni and together they provide one of the league's best combinations.

Minnesota has its own center trip of starter Maurice Walker (12.4 ppg, 6.4 rpg), solid backup Elliott Eliason (4.5 ppg, 3.8 rpg) and newcomer Bakary Konate (2.4 ppg, 2.2 rpg). Walker has become one of the more reliable posts in the Big Ten after fighting injuries and weight issues his first few years. He ranks eighth in blocks (1.6), 12th in rebounding and 23rd in scoring while averaging 22.4 minutes a game.

Morris, a 6-foot-5 junior-college transfer, leads Gophers in scoring (12.9 ppg) and grabs 3.8 rebounds a game. He also has 41 assists and 38 steals. Power forward Joey King, who transferred from Drake before last season, averages 91. points and 3.2 rebounds in about 28 minutes of action. He can also hit from the outside with 25 3-pointers.

ADVANTAGE: IOWA

3. Intangibles/other.

The teams' last three games at Williams Arena have had their own level of intensity. Minnesota won a wild shootout 95-89 last year. The Gophers hit eight consecutive 3-pointers and shot nearly 70 percent in the first half. Austin Hollins, who no longer plays for Minnesota, scored 27 points. Two years ago, Iowa led by two points with 11.2 seconds left, then Austin Hollins drilled a 3-pointer to ultimately beat Iowa. Three years ago, Iowa missed its final six free throws but withstood a furious Gopher rally to win 64-62.

'We did get hot,” Pitino said. 'It was a fun game to watch. It was the anti-traditional, as people claim our conference is, Big Ten basketball. It was a lot of fun. Obviously it was more fun because we won.”

The teams enter the game from slightly different directions this year, but there's a level of desperation for each one. The Gophers have lost all four Big Ten games after posting an 11-2 non-conference record. Minnesota since has blown substantial leads on the road at Purdue and Michigan, and overcome a 12-point deficit at home to force overtime in a loss to Ohio State. Another home defeat could derail the Gophers' confidence and NCAA tournament hopes.

For 2 1/2 games, Iowa looked like a prime challenger to Wisconsin for the Big Ten title. The Hawkeyes stopped Ohio State on the road, then beat Nebraska by 12 at home. Iowa led Michigan State by 11 points at halftime last Thursday, then completely fell apart. It was Iowa's ninth straight loss to Michigan State and reignited questions about the team's mental approach. Another loss to a rival, combined with a rematch against Ohio State and road games at Wisconsin and Purdue, could sending the Hawkeyes' season spiraling downward.

'That's going to be the test for us,” Uthoff said. 'That's going to be the hard thing for us to do is get back to where we're confident. Let's have some swag out here. Let's talk, let's have energy. Let's bring it to Minnesota.”

ADVANTAGE: EVEN

KEY MATCHUP

Mathieu vs. Gesell.

Mathieu is a fast, play-making guard for both himself and players around him. Mathieu is an excellent press defender and leads the league in steals and ranks third in assists. He has just 39 turnovers to go with 94 assists. Mathieu doesn't shoot many 3-pointers, but he's connected on nearly half of his attempts (8-17). Gesell is no young kid out there, however. He takes care of the ball (28 turnovers, 62 assists) and does a good job of getting Iowa into its offense. But like most of his teammates, Gesell struggles from 3-point range, shooting just 28.9 percent (11-38) and 36.9 percent from the field.

KEY STATISTICS

SCORING/OPP:

Iowa 70.1/60.2; Minn 78.5/65.5

FG%/OPP FG%:

Iowa 41.0/38.5; Minn 47.7/41.5

3PT%/OPP 3PT%:

Iowa 30.3/31.3; Minn 39.7/33.0

FT%:

Iowa 76.7; Minn 64.2

LIKELY STARTERS

Iowa:

G Mike Gesell (6-2); G Peter Jok (6-6); F Jarrod Uthoff (6-9); F Aaron White (6-9); C Adam Woodbury (7-1)

Minnesota:

G DeAndre Mathieu (5-9); G Andre Hollins (6-2); F Carlos Morris (6-5) F Joey King (6-9); C Maurice Walker (6-10)

KEY RESERVES

Iowa

: C Gabe Olaseni (6-10); G Anthony Clemmons (6-2); G Josh Oglesby (6-6); G Trey Dickerson (6-1); G Brady Ellingson (6-4); F Dominique Uhl (6-9)

Minnesota:

G Daquein McNeil (6-3); G Nate Mason (6-1); F Charles Buggs (6-8); C Elliott Eliason (6-11); C Bakery Konate (6-11)

BOTTOM LINE

When two evenly matched basketball teams are struggling and wavering in confidence, mental toughness is the key intangible. Who outfights whom for a loose ball or rebound? Who makes a free throw or guts out a late defensive possession? Those questions are best answered in the final six minutes of an even match-up.

Iowa is the better free-throw shooting team, ranking second (76.7 percent) while Minnesota is last (64.2). Iowa's rebounding margin is better (plus-3.8 vs. minus-0.8) and the Hawkeyes' defense is much better (60.2 ppg vs. 65.5). But Minnesota scores 8.4 points per game more than Iowa and shoots 3-pointers at 39.7 percent while Iowa (30.3) is much lower.

The 'Who Hates Iowa” chant will be in full force. Minnesota is the more desperate team and at home. It should be a close game, but the better shooting team should pull it out at Williams Arena.

PREDICTION: Minnesota 73-70

l Comments: (319) 339-3169; scott.dochterman@thegazette.com