Iowa-Minnesota breakdown

RECORDS

Iowa 15-8 (6-4 Big Ten); Minnesota 15-9 (4-7) Big Ten)

TV

6 p.m. BTN (Dave Revsine and Jim Jackson)

LOCATION

Carver-Hawkeye Arena, Iowa City

PREVIOUS MEETING

Iowa beat Minnesota 77-75, Jan. 13 at Williams Arena; Minnesota leads all-time series 102-93

LINE

Iowa by 6.5

KEY MATCHUP

Mike Gesell vs. DeAndre Mathieu.

This is a match-up of two completely different but equally effective point guards. Mathieu leads the Big Ten in steals (2.21 per game), and the Gophers rank second nationally (10.8) in that category. Minnesota also paces the league and ranks fourth in the country in turnover margin (5.0). Gesell led the Big Ten in assist-to-turnover ratio last year and ranks seventh this year. He puts up 3.7 assists per game. Both players post modest scoring numbers - 7.7 for Gesell, 8.2 points per game for Mathieu. Gesell has elevated his scoring profile over the last eight games with a 53 percent shooting percentage (9.5 points per game). Mathieu, however, has struggled over the same eight games, shooting 29 percent (14 of 48) and averaging 4.8 points a game. The success of Mathieu's pressure defense will go a long way toward determining the outcome of tonight's game.

KEY STATISTICS

SCORING/OPP:

Iowa 69.3/62.5; Minn 75.3/64.9

FG%/OPP FG%:

Iowa 43.4/39.9; Minn 46.4/42.0

3PT%/OPP 3PT%:

Iowa 32.3/31.9; Minn 38.9/33.8

FT%:

Iowa 74.0; Minn 65.5

LIKELY STARTERS

Iowa:

G Mike Gesell (6-2); G Peter Jok (6-6); F Jarrod Uthoff (6-9); F Aaron White (6-9); C Adam Woodbury (7-1)

Minnesota:

G DeAndre Mathieu (5-9); G Andre Hollins (6-2); F Carlos Morris (6-5); F Joey King (6-9); C Maurice Walker (6-10)

KEY RESERVES

Iowa

: C Gabe Olaseni (6-10); G Anthony Clemmons (6-2); G Josh Oglesby (6-6); F Dominique Uhl (6-9)

Minnesota:

G Nate Mason (6-1); F Charles Buggs (6-9); C Elliott Eliason (6-11); C Bakary Konate (6-11)

BOTTOM LINE

Minnesota has won three of its last four and continues to dig out of an 0-5 start in Big Ten play. Six of the Gophers' seven Big Ten losses have come by five points or less, including the first battle between these longtime rivals. The teams' last meeting became an all-time classic. The Hawkeyes led by 17 early in the second half, then the Gophers staged a furious rally to take a four-point lead. The Hawkeyes battled back and a Jarrod Uthoff jumper with 3.5 seconds left gave Iowa a two-point lead. Then Mathieu raced the length of the floor for the game-tying layup, but the ball didn't leave his hand until after the buzzer.

Minnesota has enough athletes in the backcourt and size in the post to match up favorably with Iowa. But there's a significant height advantage for Iowa at the guard and small forward positions. Uthoff exploited that for a big night against the Gophers.

If Iowa continues the offensive execution it has enjoyed the last three games, the Hawkeyes should win comfortably. However, if the Gophers' pressure defense leads to turnovers and fast breaks, this could come down to the final minute.

PREDICTION: Iowa 74, Minnesota 67

l Comments: (319) 339-3169; scott.dochterman@thegazette.com