Iowa-Illinois breakdown

RECORDS

Iowa 17-10 (8-6 Big Ten); Illinois 17-10 (7-7 Big Ten)

TV

8:06 p.m. BTN (Kevin Kugler and Shon Morris)

LOCATION

Carver-Hawkeye Arena, Iowa City

LINE

Iowa by 8

PREVIOUS MEETING

Teams have not played this year; Illinois leads all-time series 82-69

KEY MATCHUP

Jarrod Uthoff vs. Malcolm Hill.

The small forwards lead their schools in scoring during Big Ten action. Hill, a sophomore, averages 16.4 points - ranking fifth - and shoots 40.3 percent from 3-point range in league play. Uthoff, a junior, counters at 13.7 points per Big Ten game and he leads Iowa with 26 3-pointers (42.6 percent) in Big Ten games. Uthoff has a size advantage, but Hill is a mismatch for most defenders.

KEY STATISTICS

SCORING/OPP:

Iowa 69.2/61.5; ILL 70.2/63.0

FG%/OPP FG%:

Iowa 43.5/39.5; ILL 42.1/41.2

3PT%/OPP 3PT%:

Iowa 33.2/31.3; ILL 36.1/32.2

FT%:

Iowa 73.6; ILL 79.0

LIKELY STARTERS

Iowa:

G Mike Gesell (6-2); G Peter Jok (6-6); F Jarrod Uthoff (6-9); F Aaron White (6-9); C Adam Woodbury (7-1)

Illinois:

G Jaylon Tate (6-3) or Rayvonte Rice (6-4); G Kendrick Nunn (6-3); G Malcolm Hill (6-6); F Leron Black (6-7); C Nnanna Egwu (6-11)

KEY RESERVES

Iowa

: C Gabe Olaseni (6-10); G Anthony Clemmons (6-2); G Josh Oglesby (6-6); F Dominique Uhl (6-9)

Illinois:

F Austin Colbert (6-9); G Ahmad Starks (5-9); C Maverick Morgan (6-10)

BOTTOM LINE

This is a pivotal game for both teams' NCAA tournament hopes. They both have 17-10 records, but Iowa is a game up in the Big Ten standings. Illinois is 2-5 in Big Ten road games, with those losses coming by an average of nearly 12 points. Each of the road wins were by five points (Northwestern, Michigan State).

The Illini have lost two straight games (Wisconsin, Michigan State), while Iowa has won two straight (Rutgers, Nebraska). For the first time since 1954, the longtime rivals won at their opponents' home floor last year. Iowa triumphed in Champaign for only the second time since 1987, while the Illini ended a three-game series losing skid with a last-second 3-pointer at Carver-Hawkeye Arena.

Illinois boasts an array of talent in their backcourt from Malcolm Hill (14.7 ppg) and Kendrick Nunn (11.5 ppg) to Rayvonte Rice (15.9), who recently returned from a broken hand and team suspension. The Illini lead the nation in free-throw percentage (79.0 percent) and is 15-5 when they make at least as many free throws as their opponents. But Illinois was held to 49 and 53 points in its most recent two games and are 1-4 when held under 60 points. In its only win, Illinois beat Michigan State 59-54.

Iowa blasted Rutgers and Nebraska by a combined 62 points, its largest margin of victory in two consecutive Big Ten games since 1944 (one of which was a 103-31 pasting of former league member Chicago). The 28-point win at Nebraska was the school's largest winning road margin in league play since beating Wisconsin by 30 in 1945.

A victory by Iowa locks up its third consecutive non-losing Big Ten season and pushes the team closer to its second straight NCAA tournament berth. The Hawkeyes have the advantage in the frontcourt and a renewed focus on defense should be enough against an Illini squad that hasn't scored more than 59 points in regulation in more than three weeks.

PREDICTION:

Iowa 66, Illinois 59

l Comments: (319) 339-3169; scott.dochterman@thegazette.com