Iowa-Illinois breakdown

RECORDS

Iowa 18-4, 9-1 Big Ten; Illinois 11-12, 3-7 Big Ten

TV/RADIO

12:06 p.m., BTN (Kevin Kugler, Jon Crispin)

600/800 AM (Gary Dolphin, Bobby Hansen)

LOCATION

State Farm Center, Champaign, Ill. (16,618) 

LINE

Iowa by 10 1/2

SERIES

Illinois leads 82-70 overall, 61-15 in Champaign; Iowa won 68-60 last year; teams' only scheduled meeting this year

PROFILE

Iowa is ranked 5th by AP and 7th by USA Today/Coaches; Illinois is unranked

KEY MATCHUP

Iowa F Jarrod Uthoff vs. Illinois G Malcolm Hill. The Big Ten's top two scorers give the match-up some flavor, but both are completely different players. Uthoff, who stands nearly 6-foot-10, is a mismatch for nearly every opponent. He's first in blocked shots (65), second in Big Ten scoring (18.4 ppg), third in free-throw percentage (84.5), seventh in 3-point percentage (46.0) and 11th in rebounding (6.2). Hill leads the Big Ten in scoring (19.1 ppg), ties with Uthoff for 11th in rebounding (6.2) and ranks ninth in free-throw percentage (82.3).

KEY STATISTICS

SCORING/OPP: Iowa 80.8/67.5; ILL 74.5/76.2

FG%/OPP FG%: Iowa 46.5/40.6; ILL 43.2/46.3

3PT%/OPP 3PT%: Iowa 39.7/29.3; ILL 35.9/37.9

FT%: Iowa 72.5: ILL 73.5

LIKELY STARTERS

Iowa: G Mike Gesell (6-2; 8.4 ppg, 6.3 apg, 3.5 rpg); G Anthony Clemmons (6-2; 8.9 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 3.7 apg); G Peter Jok (6-6; 15.1 ppg, 3.2 rpg); F Jarrod Uthoff (6-9; 18.4 ppg, 6.2 rpg; 3.0 bpg); C Adam Woodbury (7-1; 8.4 ppg, 7.4 rpg)

Illinois: G Malcolm Hill (6-6; 19.1 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 3.3 apg); G Kendrick Nunn (6-3; 17.3 ppg, 5.6 rpg); G Jalen Coleman-Lands (6-3; 9.4 ppg, 1.8 rpg); G Khalid Lewis (6-3; 3.6 ppg, 1.6 rpg, 2.9 apg); C Maverick Morgan (6-10; 6.9 ppg, 2.5 rpg)

KEY RESERVES

Iowa: F Dom Uhl (6-9; 7.5 ppg, 4.0 rpg); G Brady Ellingson (6-4; 3.4 ppg, 0.8 rpg); F Nicholas Baer (6-7; 5.2 ppg, 2.8 rpg); F Ahmad Wagner (6-5, 2.9 ppg, 2.5 rpg)

Illinois: Jaylon Tate (6-3; 2.4 ppg, 1.5 rpg); G Alex Austin (6-4; 1.8 ppg, 1.5 rpg); G D.J. Williams (6-7; 1.4 ppg, 1.1 rpg); G Aaron Jordan (6-6; 4.0 ppg; 1.0 rpg); C Michael Finke (6-10; 9.0 ppg; 4.0 rpg — injured)

WORTH WATCHING

From about 1920 through 2000, the home team in this series prevailed with almost certainty. But this series has gotten more unpredictable the last 10 years with the home team holding just an 8-5 record (plus one neutral game). Illinois won a series-record seven straight from 2008 through 2012, but Iowa has won four of the last five.

BOTTOM LINE/PREDICTION

The statistics all point to a decisive Iowa victory. While both teams can score, there's a gulf between their defenses. Iowa ranks sixth in field-goal percentage; Illinois is 14th. Iowa ranks second in 3-point defense; Illinois is 13th. Then in the post, Illinois is last in rebounding margin (minus-5.7) while the Hawkeyes are ninth (plus-0.9). Iowa ranks first in blocked shots; Illinois is 14th. In fact, Uthoff has 65 blocks by himself, while Illinois has only 38.

This is a game where Illinois needs to get hot and stay hot to keep pace with Iowa. If the Illini can do so and fight with tenacity, sure, they have a chance to stay with the Hawkeyes. But if the Illini start missing some shots, this could get ugly.

The last time Iowa won by double digits in Champaign was 1979, coincidentally the last time the Hawkeyes won the Big Ten regular-season crown. We'll see if one indirectly leads to the other this time around.

Prediction: Iowa 87, Illinois 75

l Comments: (319) 339-3169; scott.dochterman@thegazette.com