Hawkeyes and everyone else must win out for playoff berth

Well, Iowa has seen a wild pendulum swing in the College Football Playoff, leaping from ninth to fifth after beating Indiana.

It will surely change again, and again. For instance, if Baylor beats Oklahoma in Waco Saturday, the No. 6 Bears go back ahead of the Hawkeyes.

As Bill Murray chanted in 'Meatballs,' it just doesn't matter.

Nothing has really changed. The Hawkeyes need to go 13-0 to reach the playoff. Which, by my math, means they need to win the rest of their games.

So does everyone else … I think.

Now, if No. 1 Clemson loses by two points in four overtimes to once-beaten North Carolina, maybe the Tigers still get into the Final Four. But would any other scenario admit a team to the playoffs that has lost between today and Selection Sunday?

Final Four, Selection Sunday. Where have I heard those terms before?

How could No. 2 Alabama go to the playoffs if it suffers a second defeat? I know, I know. It's Alabama. The committee will figure out a way. But ... how? If it loses at Mississippi State Saturday or at Auburn on Nov. 28 or against Florida in the SEC title game, how does it finish in the top four?

I know, I know. It's Alabama. But still.

I suppose Ohio State could if it got nicked by 2 points by Iowa (assuming the Hawkeyes win the Big Ten West) in the fourth overtime of the league championship game at Indianapolis after it had beaten Michigan State and Michigan. But … not really.

Everybody else — Notre Dame, Iowa, Baylor, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Stanford, Utah, LSU, Florida, Michigan State — has to run its table. By the way, I've seen a lot of games of pool in my life, and running the table is really, really hard.

But anyone still in legitimate contention for the playoffs that goes unbeaten the rest of the way will certainly have a resume. A 12-1 Utah, for instance, would be difficult to keep out of the Final Four.

My point is, it's fun to either be ranked high by the playoff people and it's fun to be ranked lower than you think you should be and caw like the orneriest of crows. But there's so much carnage ahead, and one misstep would be everyone's undoing

Plus, the road to perfection from here until Dec. 6 is perilous for almost everyone. Almost. Clemson doesn't have it too bad, To wit:

Clemson: If the Tigers face North Carolina in the ACC title game, it will be playing a team with a dangerous offense and 11-game winning streak.

Alabama: At Mississippi State Saturday, and if it wins the SEC West, Florida in the league's title game.

Ohio State: Michigan State at home, at Michigan, and then the Big Ten title game.

Notre Dame: At Stanford.

Iowa: If I weren't in Iowa, I'd just say the Big Ten title game. But I'm in Iowa and people here get nervous, so I'll say Minnesota, Purdue, at Nebraska.

Baylor: Oklahoma and Oklahoma State at home, at TCU.

Oklahoma State: Baylor and Oklahoma at home. That's after the Cowboys' game at Iowa State Saturday.

Oklahoma: at Baylor, TCU at home, at Oklahoma State. If the Sooners win out, whoa! (Ditto Baylor and Oklahoma State.)

Stanford: Oregon and Notre Dame at home, and the Pac-12 title game. Hey, Oregon has been playing better lately.

Utah: At Arizona, UCLA at home, Pac-12 title game against (probably) Stanford.

North Carolina: Miami at home, at N.C. State, ACC title game against Clemson.

LSU: at Ole Miss, Texas A&M, the SEC title game if Alabama stumbles.

Of course, there could be so much carnage in these next four weeks that almost no one got from here to the end unscathed, and teams that lost a November/December game do get into the playoffs. But that's kind of negative thinking.