Four Downs, previewing Iowa football 2017 — The Links

Camp started last weekend, so it's time to begin wondering about how this is all going to work for Iowa football this season.

Iowa players will move up and down the depth chart during camp. By the end of the month, some important questions should be answered. Questions like maybe who the starting quarterback is going to be.

When that's finished, the 29 practices of fall camp, Iowa will have a team and it will be time for a season.

Think of this post as the starting point. The players are in the blocks in the crouched sprint position. The blocks are staggered. Some players, cough, cough, like Josey Jewell, have a shorter race to their spot than others (like maybe quarterback).

Here's where everyone will start (plus a few paragraphs on RB James Butler and maybe one on WR Matt Quarells).

Four Downs 2017 — The Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Yes, Iowa's offense feels as if it might be very, very tight end-y in 2017.

From the post:

A lot of Iowa fans ache for the long passing play. Never mind the percentages of long passing plays (they're low, historically, now and forever), there is a certain percentage of Iowa fans who just want to feel something. Nothing energizes an offense more than a 40-plus passing play.

Is that a realistic objective for the talent Iowa has on hand? (Iowa's number of 20-plus passing plays dropped from 42 in 2015 to 28 last season, its lowest since 26 in 2012.) Get excited about the third-and-6 completion. During the 12-2 run in 2015, Iowa passed for 123 first downs, not a dazzling number but enough to help average just more than 30 points a game.

— Offenses have made livings off tight ends. The 2011 New England Patriots, which did have a tight ends coach with a familiar name (it was Brian Ferentz).

— Brandon Smith has a hype train. We'll definitely have a feel for how fast the train is going by the end of the month.

— Is Matt Quarells a thing for Iowa? Iowa is waiting on paperwork so Quarells, a 6-1, 192-pounder, can play football at Iowa this season. He'd be a graduate transfer with two seasons to play. He had great track speed in high school (Hazelwood Central in the St. Louis area).

Don't pin everything on this guy. People went crazy for Damond Powell. He did nice things. He didn't do a ton of things. I think that's the potential here. Quarells will do some nice things, but probably won't cure the Iowa receiving corps.

Four Downs 2017 — The Running Backs

Iowa's running game has excelled the last two seasons. It should again this year, as long as there's enough passing game to keep defenses honest. And we'll see on that.

From the post:

Wadley had 167 yards from scrimmage against the Wolverines (23 rushes for 115 yards and five catches for 52 yards). And Iowa's offense didn't necessarily shed its skin to set free Wadley. And that's the answer for how Iowa will use Wadley.

He'll play running back. The offensive line will block. Wadley will do business between the tackles and with quick-hitting outside zones. He'll catch short passes and turn them into chain-moving gains (getting Wadley underneath matched up against linebackers is good for Iowa). Just like last year, and, in a best-case scenario, just like he did against Michigan.

— This was written before James Butler committed to Iowa. He's a graduate transfer from Nevada, where he rushed for more than 3,000 yards and 30 TDs in three seasons.

A lot of you have thrown a protective sheen over Akrum Wadley, believing he can have all of the touches. Who wouldn't want that. We'd all pay to see that. That isn't doable, you know that, right? Probably don't read the rest of this, but Butler is going to get his (AS LONG AS HE PROVES IT IN CAMP). At minimum, Butler probably gets a crack at LeShun Daniels' touches (213 carries last season). Wadley is as tough as they come. He battled through a knee injury last season that eventually required surgery. He willingly and unflinchingly runs between the tackles. He's just not built for 20-plus carries a game. Iowa has been trending away from the 20-carry back. Damon Bullock averaged 22-plus in 2012. Marcus Coker averaged 23-plus in 2013. Since then? Mark Weisman averaged 17.4 in 2014. That's the most.

What these guys do with their touches will set the course for usage. I'm not sure we'll see any patterns beyond, 'Hey, he's a pretty good running back who's having success.'

— Iowa's fullbacks Drake Kulick and Brady Ross are in their second year of the rotation. Iowa has grouped two fullbacks together with success the last few seasons (Macon Plewa and Adam Cox). The second year is always better than the first, so high expectations for these two.

— Iowa does have two incoming freshmen running backs. Don't count them out. You probably aren't. You know how it goes at Iowa RB.

Four Downs 2017 — The Offensive Line

This is Iowa football. The OL also is why you can't completely dismiss Iowa's chances of being interesting in the B1G West. New QB, few proven pass catchers, some new faces on the D-line, but, hey, four returning starters and another with seven starts on the OL? Iowa has done damage with that.

From the post:

Iowa has allowed 60 sacks the last two seasons. In 2013, Iowa allowed just 15.0 sacks, leading the Big Ten. In 2014, the number went to 21. It's been 30 in each of the last two seasons.

Sacks ruin drives and can ruin games, with last year's Northwestern game standing as an example. The Wildcats had 6.0 sacks, with DE Ifeadi Odenigbo getting the best of OT Cole Croston, who was gutting through a shin injury, on four occasions.

Did anyone notice any big changes to pass protection last season? No, not really. Iowa didn't change really anything.

The expectation is for the tackles to hold up in one-on-one situations against defensive ends. That is a top-down thing. Kirk Ferentz carried that over from his offensive line coach days. Reese Morgan held that principle in his nine seasons as Iowa's OL coach. Brian Ferentz didn't send a bunch of backs or TEs at outside rushers during his five seasons as OL coach. Tim Polasek is inheriting two senior offensive tackles who've been taught that since day 1.

— If we were able to watch practice, I would be watching to see who emerges as second-team OLs.

Lots of positioning is going to happen for starting runs in 2018, which will include two new OTs.

— Be very excited about the inside trio of OL — senior guard Sean Welsh, junior center James Daniels and junior guard Keegan Render.

Four Downs 2017 — The Quarterbacks

Sophomore Nathan Stanley has won this race with junior Tyler Wiegers. Just 11 months ago, he won this race.

'Ancient history,' Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz said during Big Ten media days.

From the post:

In 2015 (you know, when Iowa had a healthy and vital group of receivers/TEs), Beathard threw 219 passes between the hashes, with 117 of those happening from 9 yards to behind the line of scrimmage. Last year, Iowa passed between the hashes 182 times. In 2015, Beathard posted passer ratings of high 80s and beyond in the middle of the field (including 22 of 36 from 10 to 19 yards, a 92.7 passer rating. Last year, seven of Beathard's 10 interceptions came over the middle (compared to just three in 2015).

Will Iowa attack the middle of the field more in 2017? Maybe. Whatever ends up playing to the strengths of personnel is what Iowa will do. Right now, that doesn't position itself for a ton of deep passes. But would that be a bad thing? Would you rather Iowa's rookie QB throw something deep or midrange to a relatively untested WR or short to RB Akrum Wadley? Probably Wadley, no?

— The No. 3 QB is incoming freshman Peyton Mansell. In Chicago, Ferentz didn't completely dismiss the idea of Mansell competing for the starting gig as a true freshman. He basically compared it to climbing a really tall mountain, like really, really tall. He essentially called it impossible.

— I really think the QB will be Stanley. Is this to keep Wiegers at Iowa? Wiegers is a junior and would be the backup. If he lost the competition and bolted, Mansell is QB2. That'd be risky.

Four Downs 2017 — The Defensive Line

Iowa has yet to name a starting QB. On a scale of nervousness, I still think you rank the D-line a little higher.

Line play is the center of Iowa's universe. There are a lot of new faces at defensive tackle.

From the post:

Lattimore played just 86 snaps in 2016. Johnson played 668 snaps last season, with the majority of those coming at nose tackle.

OK, why do I mention snap counts so much, especially for defensive tackles? It's pretty obvious. Defensive tackles' main job is wrestling, especially the way Iowa plays its defense (4-3 that adjusts to what offense is in front of it, two-gap technique for inside linemen). That taxes the gas tank.

In 2015, Iowa's defense hit a wall in November. For the first half of the season, the 2015 Hawkeyes were historically good on defense. Snaps caught up with the tackles (Johnson and Bazata). They started rotating more in November. Last year, with a little better depth between Johnson, Bazata and Ekakitie, Iowa's defense held up and had a great November, finishing 3-1.

Can Iowa get to three defensive tackles this year?

— I've been asking this since spring: Cedrick Lattimore's profile is going to explode. If he's ready, he's got probably 600 snaps available to him.

— A.J. Epenesa? I don't think there's anyone on the planet more ready to see what happens in his first steps than A.J. Epenesa. He's starting out a pretty good football player, but he'll be so much better by the end of August.

— Is Anthony Nelson's encore maybe the most anticipated for the 2017 team? He showed a great feel for pass rush last season. Is he still a prospect? Is he established? I want to see how he's grown his game/body.

Four Downs 2017 — The Linebackers

Three seniors, but this invites the question: Would you rather have experienced linebackers or experienced defensive linemen? I'm team DL on this question, but I'm open to debate.

Of course, three seniors here including Josey Jewell, a leader's leader, and Ben Niemann, who plays a trusty game.

From the post:

Do Iowa's linebackers need to be more disruptive?

Last year, I tried to devise a measure for disruption. It was really clever. Add sacks and tackles for loss and, ka-boom, you've got a disruption metric. OK, that doesn't capture everything. PFF is great at marking QB hits and hurries. Those would have to factor.

A lot goes into disruption and how it fits in a particular defense's system.

Last season, Iowa's defensive line was spectacularly disruptive in some games, so Iowa's linebackers were asked to do less on that end. Still, last season was a four-year low for disruption numbers from Iowa's linebackers.

— Is there a race at weakside linebacker between senior Bo Bower and sophomore Amani Jones? Probably not.

— Lots of young players here who'll be locked in on their jobs, but — hey, we're talking about human people — who might also have an eye on depth chart positioning for 2018.

— Tackles for loss isn't job 1 in Iowa's defense. It probably won't be again this year, either. Those numbers have trended down. Maybe a veteran linebacker group allows some more aggression.

Four Downs 2017 — The Secondary

Lots of new faces here. I feel like corners Manny Rugamba and Joshua Jackson should work. Brandon Snyder's injury at safety was a tough hit. His presence would've answered a few questions at the position.

From the post:

Manny Rugamba jumped in a starter's role as a true freshman last season. It was only the Michigan game, when, at the end, 10 million people tuned into ABC to watch Keith Duncan kick the winning field goal.

Michigan. No. 3 in the country. First start. That's all.

Here's how Rugamba did: First, he didn't get beat for a long TD or even a long completion. Pro Football Focus gave him a negative passing grade, but I don't see how. Michigan threw toward him 10 times and completed just three for 29 yards. He had an interception and broke up one other pass. He was tagged for a 17-yard completion to tight end Jake Butt. Rugamba was just a 175-ish pound true freshman going against a 6-5, 246-pound tight end with NFL potential. There's going to be some breakage on that matchup.

— Is strong safety a competition? Probably not as much as we might think, with Miles Taylor entering his senior year and third season as a starter. But he did finish last season healthy and on the sidelines.

— Two names at safety that intrigue me: Amani Hooker and Noah Clayberg.

Four Downs 2017 — Special Teams

Iowa's special teams were OK last season. Kirk Ferentz wants more. He rekindled a connection with Kevin Spencer, an NFL special teams coach who met Ferentz during their days with the Cleveland Browns. Spencer is a quality coordinator assistant in charge of special teams. This seems like it should be a bigger deal.

From the post:

Let's pick a return specialist

I'd be Team Wadley on this, at least for kickoffs, but you have to ask yourself if it's worth it. I'm a no here. Yes, using King in returns might've been an even bigger risk. Iowa does have other running backs. Iowa didn't know what it had in Manny Rugamba until he did his thing at corner in the Michigan game.

I'd love to wiggle out of this with 'well, we'll just see how things evolve with Wadley's role in the offense.' But you heard Ferentz. He wants to squeeze all the juice out of this orange. And this is a decision that Iowa will try to make in camp. Bottom line, on the wear and tear scale, running back comes with more bumps and bruises than corner. I'm a no.

— Iowa didn't sign a punter to a scholarship last winter for Ryan Gersonde to come in and be the No. 3 holder.

— I think now you appreciate what Desmond King did as a return specialist for the Hawkeyes.

— I don't think the coaches want this to happen, but Iowa might be locked into a short FG guy and long FG guy.

l Comments: (319) 398-8256; marc.morehouse@thegazette.com