Fast Break(down): UNI hoops vs Drake

In its last 10 games, the Northern Iowa men's basketball team has played exactly one home game — an 80-44 demolition of Bradley — and has been about as up and down as a team can be. That stretch includes a win against then-No. 2 Iowa State, and a loss to 5-10 Missouri State.

The Panthers return home for just their second game at McLeod Center since Nov. 30, and are facing a crossroads. UNI (9-7, 1-2 Missouri Valley Conference) has three home games in its next four games, starting with the 5-10 Bulldogs, who have lost seven of their last eight and have started MVC play 0-3.

Here's a breakdown of the matchup between the two teams:

Key player

Northern Iowa: Paul Jesperson, guard — As thin as the Panthers are depth-wise, Jesperson's role for this team is vital. When he's on the floor, the offense flows much smoother and creates matchup problems for the opposition defensively. So when he's in foul trouble, as he has been at least five times this season, it significantly affects UNI's offense and its versatility, as well as on the boards. Most importantly, he's a leader on the floor. It's not something in a statbook, but his influence goes a long way — especially when things get tough.

Drake: Kale Abrahamson, forward — The former Northwestern forward came back to Des Moines and has made a huge impact for the Bulldogs in his first season on the court. He's second on the team in scoring at 15.5 per game, and was MVC Newcomer of the Week two weeks ago. When Abrahamson is on, the Bulldogs are on. In Drake's five wins, the West Des Moines native averages 23.8 points, while in the 10 losses, he's averaged 11.4. He's become a viable weapon for the Bulldogs beside Reed Timmer, and should matchup up directly with Jesperson.

Strengths

Northern Iowa: Even through the struggles of the last 10 games, the Panthers have shot the ball well. They're shooting 48.4 percent in conference play so far and 48.5 percent this season. And according to KenPom, UNI's effective field goal percentage (gives 50 percent more credit for 3-pointers) is 56.3, making them 13th in the country.

There's a lot of talent on the perimeter for the Panthers, and they've had to rely on it. They also take care of the ball well — turning it over in just 15.8 percent of possessions (41st in the nation according to KenPom).

Drake: Ray Giacolletti's team is growing, and has some good individuals on the roster. That may sound like a pat on the head, but it's a large improvement over the last few seasons. The Bulldogs share the ball pretty well, assisting on 51 percent of made field goals, and shoot a pretty good effective FG percentage — 52.9 percent — when they take care of the ball.

On the flip side of that, Drake denies the ball well defensively, allowing assists on just 39 percent of opponents' made field goals — forcing teams to beat them with individuals instead of sets most often.

Weaknesses

Northern Iowa: Over the last 10 games, UNI has had wide gaps in its defensive and rebounding consistency, which has been and always will be the basis for everything the Panthers do under Ben Jacobson. UNI ranks in the triple digits nationally in nearly every defensive category, allowing 1.006 points per possession (132nd) and 51.8 percent effective FG (258th). The Panthers have a 2.7 rebounds-per-game deficit to opponents this season, as well.

And as good as they are on the perimeter, the Panthers are also forced to rely heavily on the guards because the big men haven't hit their stride yet — on either end. UNI has allowed 27.3 points per game in the paint, which makes for 40.2 percent of opposing teams' scoring.

Drake: While the Bulldogs are growing, they still have a long way to go. Opposing teams score 1.102 points per possession (320th) and they only force a turnover on 14.9 percent of opponents' possessions (335th). It's been tough sledding for Drake in most ways you look at it this season.

Drake averages 13.1 turnovers per game this season (a minus 3.1 deficit to opponents), and hasn't been able to shoot well consistently. In five wins, the Bulldogs shot 57.3 percent. In the 10 losses, that number dropped to 41.9 percent. And while they deny the ball, those individuals have been able to score with relative ease. On-ball defense hasn't been close to a strength overall for this team.

Northern Iowa wins if …

Foul trouble isn't a serious issue and there's a presence in the paint to go with outside shooting. The Panthers are very good shooters, and those outside shots will continue to fall. But as it always has, things start on the other end. If UNI can get back to forcing turnovers without fouling and defending teams attacking the basket, the wins will return.

Drake wins if …

UNI isn't hitting from outside, the combination of Kale Abrahamson and Reed Timmer are on their game and can force the Panthers into more foul trouble. The Bulldogs showed against Iowa they have plenty of fight. The Panthers are in for one if Drake can get a rhythm offensively and keep Wes Washpun from having his way via the high ball screen and drive and kick.

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